question

What modulates our Sun? The majority of science work on the principle that the Sun is self modulating and each solar cycle is a product of a random number generator. There are others that suspect the Sun is modulated by the planets with a special emphasis on Uranus & Neptune. Thanks to Carl Smith who has recently left us we have new knowledge that significantly adds to Jose, Landscheidt & Charvàtovà's work.

Geoff Sharp

Carl Smith Provides the Rosetta Stone of Solar Science?

Carl is no longer with us, but he has certainly left us with a legacy. Back in 1965 Paul Jose was one of the first to link solar modulation with planetary movements. He discovered that the planets roughly returned to the same position every 178.8 years (My research suggests 172 yrs). Jose's paper included a very rough solar radius graph which showed some modulation but was difficult to draw from. Later Theodor Landscheidt wrote many papers using a similar principle but mainly relied on solar torque graphs which ranged over long time periods. Theodor also focused on the zero crossings  or when the Sun returns to the centre of the solar system, which in my opinion is not the crucial stage but happens close to grand minima. Landscheidt predicted a Grand Minimum to start at 1990, peak around 2030 (the latter 2030 might be late, if the current trend continues) and extend out to 2070...Those dates are derived from the zero crossing method which incorporates an extreme in solar torque measurements.

Then Carl Smith in 2007 using JPL data and his own programming skills plotted the Angular Momentum of the Sun. This graph I believe is the Rosetta stone of solar science.

Carl's original graph did not have the green arrows, but instead he displayed red arrows when the curve reached zero. (both Carl & Landscheidt concentrated on the negative angular momentum as the graph goes through zero). Link to Carl's original article HERE.. The solar disturbances occurring at the green arrows is a new discovery quite different to the Landscheidt theory. 

Carbon 14 graph from Wiki showing correlation with Carl's graph. Green squares corresponding with the green arrows.

 

Around 12 months later I stumbled on his graph while doing some ENSO research and noticed the "camel shaped humps" at the green arrows (green arrows added later), this is the point of divergence and the beginning of my research.

The humps or disturbance to the normal pattern also looked to line up very accurately with prior slowdowns of the Sun for the last 400 years. I later discovered this to be true for the last 6000 years. By studying the shape of the hump and measuring the Saturn angle we can now also quantify the severity of the solar downturn which lines up with the 11000 yr 14C (solar proxy) records in timing and strength, I call these humps the AMP event which stands for Angular Momentum Perturbation. Further research established another correlation, I checked the planetary position at the point of disturbance and noticed a recurring pattern. Every time there is a disturbance on Carl's graph we have the same planetary position. This position is Neptune, Uranus and Jupiter together with Saturn opposing, this only happens on a cycle around 172 years average, which now laid the foundation for solar modulation planning. In addition it also became obvious that Angular Momentum (AM) was responsible for the strength of the solar cycle, the AM curve very closely matches the sunspot curve which now allows us easily to predict modulation strength for the next 200 years and more. The AM graphs serve as a marker and AM is not a driver in itself, the background forces are gravity, rotation, torque and velocity. There is one fact that cannot be argued against, the position of the planets as just described radically changes the path of the Sun around the Solar System Barycenter (SSB), this also coincides with all solar slowdowns. Only this planetary position can cause this radical path change.

The oncoming Grand Minimum will prove Carl's graph is the key to solar activity, which will radically change the solar scientific arena. It will take time for Angular Momentum Theory (AMT) to take hold, but the house of cards of the last 50 years of solar science will eventually crumble, showing us all how little we really know.

Below is a new version of Carl's graph that uses different data that slightly enhances the AMP events at the green arrows. Click on the image for a full size view.

Be sure to visit our sister site that has more new research in the Planetary Realm along with a full archive of Dr. Landscheidt's & Carl Smith's work  http://landscheidt.wordpress.com/

Dont forget to vote on "who's name should be on the next grand minimum" in the poll link at the top.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Addition Keystone graphs produced after paper publication:

solar powerwave

3 prongs grand minima

Comments

Will California likely

Will California likely experience another heavy rain/snow season for the upcoming 2011-12012 season, especially since La Nina is projected to strengthen to be stronger than last year's? Also, if we will have another great wet season ahead how early do you think it will start? Love to hear your comments. Thanks, Kamau

Kamau K. Canton

Opps, I meant 2011-2012 rainy

Opps, I meant 2011-2012 rainy season?

Kamau K. Canton

I am not sure if a La Nina

I am not sure if a La Nina will build stronger than last years. At this point last year we were very much into a strong La Nina pattern, the signs at present are still pointing to a neutral position but the likelihood of a La Nina building are increasing. What ever happens in the ENSO scales I think there will still be increased snowfall and rain over the USA over this winter due to the jet stream influences and pressure pattern changes.

http://www.aanda.org/index.ph

http://www.aanda.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=966&Itemid=277

A&A Press Release - No evidence of planetary influence on solar activity

"Recently, Abreu et al. (2012, hereafter A2012) made a new attempt in this direction by comparing periodicities detected in the records of cosmogenic isotopes 10Be and 14C (or quantities derived from them) as proxies for solar activity in the past 9400 years with those of the torque exerted on a thin shell of an ellipsoidally deformed Sun."

 

Just wanted your thoughts on the recent article disputing planetary influences on solar cycle. Thanks

 

REPLY:

Hi, and thanks for the link.

I would probably agree with the paper but not its title. Tidal forces so far have not stood up to scrutiny. The Abreu team will need to look at other mechanisms which I know some of them already are doing. I have seen my principles in their upcoming papers that will add to my recently published paper.

There is no doubt the sun takes a different path around the SSB during solar grand minima, Wolff and Patrone still have a unchallenged paper that dovetails into my paper that deals with the path change and they have substantiated this through private conversation. The torsional oscillation patterns on the Sun are different to usual right now which is more physical evidence to some form of rotational change taking place.

Cheers
Geoff

 

Thank you for the reply, mvw

Mike VanWinkle

Geoff , Outstanding paper,

Geoff ,

Outstanding paper, and one that does honor to those who led the way.  One of the true beauties of science is that when a hypothesis is tested and results support the predictions and correlate with the past, science gains a gem of great value.  Testability is what climate models fail to do.  The refinements you have added to Landscheidt’s and Smith’s work is in my opinion an amazing enhancement to the support of the hypothesis, and a major contribution to the education of all interested in the subject.

The graphs of figure 1 simulate the dance of the planets and now some of the detailed steps of this complex dance have been elegantly laid out.  Getting to know the dance is providing a useful awareness of the following steps.  Complex yet predictable given the data input which is very accurate.  I am sure there are yet to be analyzed subtle, unique contributions from Venus and Earth.  There may also be harmonic effects yet to be recognized.

Personally I am relieved by the findings of your research.  I wonder if the next twenty years will teach us to appreciate the benefits of warming.

It amazes me looking back, that NASA with people high in authority were telling us that with their many satellites in space looking at the sun in all wavelengths plus, that they now knew exactly how the conveyor belt within the sun was operating, its speed, and direction and how the next sunspot cycle was seen coming and would be more powerful than the last.   They were so sure, so confident, and could not have been more wrong.  I don’t think they consider the possibility they are observing an effect not a cause.

The history of sunspots like any history has great value if you learn from it.  Your work to provide a means to connect to history, the Layman’s sunspot count, is a valuable asset in extracting the lessons of history, and I for one greatly appreciate what you are doing. Thank you.

Jim Heilman

 

REPLY: Thanks for the kind words Jim.

Geoff, have you considered a

Geoff, have you considered a book, a real live breathing book?  You've done a lot of work and have real passion for this the same as I do for astrology.  I'm out there on kindle and you can do it too.  jon hassingner

P. S.  If you have done a book and I'm the fool, consider PUSHING it.  Won't hurt. jh

 

Also how do you post a comment?

Jeff your captcha thing doesn't work. It is a piece of shit.

 

Geoff , thank you for you're

Geoff , thank you for you're hard ,brilliant work day in and day out. I view your site everyday ! I have been seeing news reports around the world quoting scientist saying the northern half of sun has flipped magnetically and that the southern half will do the  same within the next few weeks...what are your thoughts on these statements?

 

REPLY:

Hi, I am glad you get something back from my website.

Both hemispheres are switching polarity at present but there is a natural fluctuation in how we measure it from earth that will see some toing and froing. What will be interesting to watch over the next year or so is whether each hemisphere moves away from neutral. I would not be surprised to see at least one hemisphere flounder around neutral for the remainder of this cycle.

Geoff

nick

I think the prolonged solar

I think the prolonged solar minimum is still alive and healthy despite the blip in solar flux and sunspot activity of late.

The two more important readings those being the AP index and UV light  intensities are still low, with the AP index avg. for Nov. so far around 6.0 while UV light readings from 0-105 nm as posted on this site running around the 140 area.

 

I think this blip ends before NOV. is through and if solar conditions continue to be sub par cooling in a more pronounced way will start in year 2014.

 

For sustained cooling I think these average solar parameters are needed going forward.

 

solar flux sub 90

solar wind sub 350 km/sec

ap index avg sub 5.0

cosmic ray count avg. 6500 or higher per min.

solar irradiance off .015% or more

 

uv light avg. 0-105 nm sub 100

 

REPLY: Hi Salvatore, the world is already experiencing big changes from the jet stream changes etc, plus there is a lot of ocean heat inertia to overcome. Lower threshold values than what we see today should further encourage a downward spiral of temperature, but suspect the drop will be in the 1-2 deg category.

 

 

  -                          

 
-                                                          SOLAR CLIMATE MECHANISMS AND CLIMATE PREDICTION
MECHANISM ONE
.
One solar climate mechanism/connection theory which has much merit in my opinion, is as follows:
A BRIEF OVERVIEW. At times of low solar irradiance the amounts of sea ice in the Nordic Sea increase, this ice is then driven south due to the atmospheric circulation (also due to weak solar conditions) creating a more northerly air flow in this area.(-NAO) This sea ice then melts in the Sub Polar Atlantic , releasing fresh water into the sub- polar Atlantic waters, which in turn impedes the formation of NADW, which slows down the thermohaline circulation causing warm air not to be brought up from the lower latitudes as far north as previous while in lessening amounts.
This perhaps can be one of the contributing solar/climate connection factors which brought about previous abrupt N.H. cool downs during the past.
This makes much sense to me.
NAO= NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
NADW= NORTH ATLANTIC DEEP WATER
 
 
To elaborate on the above, when the sun enters a prolonged solar minimum condition an overall  reduction takes place in solar spectral irradiance, namely in UV light (wavelengths less then 400 nm).  The shorter the wavelength , the MUCH greater the reduction.
 
UV light reduction likely will cause  ocean heat content and  ocean surface temperatures to drop, due to the fact that UV light in the range of 280 nm-400nm penetrates the ocean surface to depths of 50-100 meters. A reduction in UV (ultra violet) light then should have a profound effect on the amount of energy entering the ocean surface waters from the sun  extending down to 50-100 meters in depth, resulting in cooler ocean temperatures.
 
This ties into what was said in the above in that if ocean waters in high latitudes such as the Nordic Sea , were to be subject to cooling the result would be much more sea ice which could impede the strength of the thermohaline circulation promoting substantial N.H. cooling.
 
Adding to this theory is fairly strong evidence that a decrease in  UV light  will result in a more meridional atmospheric circulation (which should cause more clouds, precipitation and snow cover for the N.H.0) , due to changes in ozone distribution in a vertical/horizontal sense which would cause the temperature contrast between the polar areas of the stratosphere and lower latitude areas of the stratosphere to lesson, during prolonged solar minimum periods. Ultra Violet light being likely the most significant solar factor affecting ozone concentrations ,although not the only solar factor.
 
This could then set up a more -NAO ,(high pressure over Greenland) which would promote a more Northerly flow of air over the Nordic Sea, bringing the sea ice there further South.
 
MECHANISM TWO 
 
A reduction of the solar wind during a prolonged solar minimum event would cause more galactic cosmic rays to enter the earth's atmosphere which would promote more aerosol formation thus more cloud nucleation. The result more clouds higher albedo, cooler temperatures. 
 
Compounding this would be a weaker geo magnetic field which would allow more galactic  cosmic ray penetration into the atmosphere , while perhaps causing excursions of the  geo magnetic poles to occur in that they would be in more southern latitudes concentrating incoming galactic cosmic rays in these southern latitudes where more moisture would be available for the cosmic rays to work with, making for greater efficiency in the creation of clouds.
 
MECHANISM THREE
 
MILANKOVITCH CYCLES overall favor N.H. cooling and an increase in snow cover over N.H high latitudes during the N.H summers due to the fact that perihelion occurs during the N.H. winter(highly favorable for increase summer snow cover), obliquity is 23.44 degrees which is at least neutral for an increase summer N.H. snow cover, while  eccentricity of the earth's orbit is  currently at 0.0167 which  is still elliptical enough to favor reduced summertime solar  insolation in the N.H. and thus promote more snow cover.
In addition the present geographical arrangements of the oceans versus continents is very favorable for glaciation.
 
MECHANISM FOUR
 
High latitude major volcanic eruptions correlate to prolonged solar minimum periods which translates to stratospheric warming due to an increase in SO2 particles while promoting more lower troposphere cooling.
 One theory of many behind the solar/volcanic connection is that MUONS, a by product of galactic cosmic rays can affect the calderas of certain
volcanoes by changing the chemical composition of the matter within the silica rich magma creating aerosols which increase pressure in the
magma chamber and hence lead to an explosive eruption.
 Muon densities increase more in higher latitudes at times of weak solar magnetic activity, which is why volcanic activity in the higher latitudes will be affected more by this process.
 
 
 
These four mechanisms make a strong case for a solar /climate connection in my opinion, and if the prolonged solar minimum meets the criteria I have mentioned going forward and the duration is long enough I expect global cooling to be quite substantial going forward.
 
THE CRITERIA
 
Solar Flux avg. sub 90
 
Solar Wind avg. sub 350 km/sec
 
AP index avg. sub 5.0
 
Cosmic ray counts north of 6500 counts per minute
 
Total Solar Irradiance off .015% or more
 
EUV light average 0-105 nm sub 100 units(or off 100% or more) and longer UV light emissions around 300 nm off  by several percent.
 
IMF around 4.0 nt or lower.
 
 
 The above solar parameter averages  following several years of sub solar activity in general which commenced in year 2005..
IF , these average solar parameters are the rule going forward for the remainder of this decade expect global average temperatures to fall by -.5C, with the largest global temperature declines occurring over the high latitudes of N.H. land areas.
 
 The decline in temperatures should begin to take place within six months after the ending of the maximum of solar cycle 24.
 
NOTE 1-  What mainstream science is missing in my opinion is two fold, in that solar variability is greater than thought , and that the
                 climate system of the earth is more sensitive to that solar variability.
 
 
NOTE 2-                                                               LATEST RESEARCH SUGGEST THE FOLLOWING:
 
 
          A. Ozone concentrations  in the lower and middle stratosphere are in phase with the solar cycle, while in anti phase with the solar cycle in   
               the upper stratosphere.
 
         B.  Certain bands of UV light are more important to ozone production then others.
 
 
         C. UV light bands are in phase with the solar cycle with much more variability, in contrast  to visible light and near infrared (NIR)
              bands which are in anti phase with the solar cycle with much LESS variability.
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

"Decades of massive winters"

"Decades of massive winters" or harsher, a repeat of the centuries of the "Little Ice Age?"  I'm wondering if your recent comments hint at something actually in between the Dalton and the Maunder in terms of solar driven climate shift?  The thing that spooks me just a bit on behalf of what happens to humanity is the magnetic output of the sun possibly "going to sleep" for a while, as some scientists put it recently.

REPLY: My prediction is for a grand minimum slightly less long than the Dalton, 2-3 decades should see it through.

          SO: If  SC24 max.

          SO: If  SC24 max. is Nov. 2014 , and SC24 is like SC 5 then SC24/25 min. is as bad as SC23/24 min. & SC25 is as bad or even lower than SC24 , you don't think 'LIA' conditions as severe as the Mauder are possible ?

 

REPLY: Thanks for your question Nick. I am not sure SC24 cycle max will be recorded in Nov 2014, this cycle is not like a usual bell curve of most cycles so perhaps now is the time of cycle max as the poles are reversing. I am expecting a recovery during SC26 which will make this grand minimum (if it occurs) shorter in length than the Dalton Minimum and considerably shorter than the Maunder Minimum.

The is no evidence, reasoning or theory I have seen to suggest a return of a Maunder type minimum, and suspect most of the related press is pure beat up. My prediction is based on solid foundations that can be hindcast accurately back for many thousands of years.

nick

     Yes,SC24 and SC25 max

     Yes,SC24 and SC25 max will be 'flips' instead of 'peeks'. By "conditions" I mean a 15-20 year period of snow on the ground for 6-7 months in Canada/northern US/most of Europe/Russia ect...possibly 2017-2035 or so, or do you think it will be a minor 'spell' like the mid 1960 thru late 1970 period ?

REPLY: All indications suggest a deeper more sustained drop than 1960-70. The PDO is in the same position but we will have most likely 2 cycles lower than SC20. But we will be saved to some extent at least initially by the ocean heat bank which is much higher than around 1940.

 

nick

But as the current

But as the current temperature of parts of the stratosphere and also the upper tropposphere are many degrees below what they apparently were in the latter part of the 20th Century yet parts of the ocean surface temperature remain high (because of the oceanic heat content) then surely there will be a continuation of extreme weather conditions. Currently these are being experienced in many countries - including Australia. This is because ultimately it is the temperature differences between the ocean surface and the upper atmosphere that causes the amount of water vapour that ends up producing the heat energy in the upper atmosphere that in turn causes the instability. This is because as water vapour turns to water droplets and/or ice it releases comparitively huge amounts of heat energy.

Hopefully this grand minimum will be eventually only known for its extreme weather rather than a sustained reduction in temperatures. However, if there are really significant tropical volcanic eruption(s) (like Tambora in 1815 or Samalas in 1257) then there will also be sustained global cooling in the following decades. The continual considerably reduced solar magnetosphere during grand minimums helps to pecipitate these volcanic events because of the increase in galactic cosmic rays hitting our atmosphere. So must hope that during this grand minimum  Earth will be spared such devastating volcanic eruptions. 

REPLY: Hi Brent, the extreme weather is a given I would think, the unusual low pressure troughs over Australia lately with their low pressure cell outcomes are showing both hemispheres have wild weather of both extremes in the pipeline.

Brent Walker

The unknowns that are out

The unknowns that are out there as far as what ultimate climate impacts the current prolonged solar minimum  period may or may not have are first of all how much volcanic actiivty will there be going forward and where will it be. If it should occur mostly in the higher latitudes then it is going to impact the atmospheric circulation by causing the stratosphere to warm more in the higher latitudes in relation to the lower latitudes making for an even greater  meridional atmospheric circulation pattern.  The decrease in ozone concentrations and changes in that concentration in the stratosphere already having the same effect on the atmospheric circulation patterns due to  the current prolong solar minimum period. Any high latitude volcanic activity will just compound this.   Especially vulnerable is the N.H.

 

During this prolonged solar minimum the earth's magnetic field will be weaker then what it was during the Dalton or Maunder Minimums, which will compound solar effects, from this prolonged solar minimum period.

 

The big unknowns  however  are climate thresholds and if they  will be reached and if reached how  they may or may not efffect the climate going forward.  The climate system is non linear meaning the same forcings on the climate could have different outcomes.  Also the locations of those forcings could be significant in that a more stronger  positive feedback  event could take place  in the climate system depending on where the forcing and positive feedback from that forcing is taken place.

 

As an example if  the forcings from a prolonged solar minimum period should result in a substancial cooling of the Nordic Sea, substancial sea ice could form on the Nordic Sea and be carried soutward into the sub- polar Atlantic waters playing havic with the thermohaline oceanic circulation  system which could have a very big climatic impact even though the solar conditions themselves are not near Maunder Minimum conditions.

 

In theory any prolonged solar minimum period could have a substancial impact on the climate if the forcings are such that they create  positive feedbacks to the climate system which make it very vulnerable  to change.

 

As in the example of Nordic Sea Ice increases. To get to my point of all of this , the point is the same solar condtions can have entirely different climatic impacts and outcomes, due to the forcing/posiitve feedbacks  that are created and where they take place in the climatic system.

 

This is why it is very foolish, other then to make a general climatic forecast going forward. In this case we can say the general climate trend will be for lower temperatures going forward but the ultimate impact and how it will all unfold is not known to anyone.

 

 

 

One last point related to my

One last point related to my last post, is the extent/degree of  magnitude of a more meridional atmospheric circulation pattern(N.H. especially) could influence snow cover,cloud cover, and precipitation amounts which could set up  stronger  positive climatic feedbacks, which could then result in an even  more significant climatic change going forward.   Just some of the many unknowns going forward in my opinion.

Many thanks go to Carl's brother Dave for providing the Domain, Server and Software.