What modulates our Sun? The majority of science work on the principle that the Sun is self modulating and each solar cycle is a product of a random number generator. There are others that suspect the Sun is modulated by the planets with a special emphasis on Uranus & Neptune. Thanks to Carl Smith who has recently left us we have new knowledge that significantly adds to Jose, Landscheidt & Charvàtovà's work.
TSI or Total Solar Irradiance is often displayed as the posterboy for the AGW crowd. Their tired argument states that with only .1% variance in TSI over the solar cycle TSI cannot have a measurable impact on the Earth's climate, and is not responsible for any rise in global temperatures.
But wait...there is more than just TSI emanating from our Sun.Graph updated to April 11, 2013.
Even if TSI had zero variance in output it could still be modulated by cloud cover, something the IPCC aligned scientists forget to include in their models, some suggest greater lower level cloud cover will shield our oceans from heat uptake. Outside of this the Sun does more than just provide heat, it provides the solar wind of charged particles which include magnetic properties that shield our planet, as well as the all important UV rays which are now gaining prominence in climate research. There is said to be a 2 fold effect, our ozone layer is maintained by solar UV production and is currently at a very low level, also there is speculation that UV radiation has a warming effect on the higher atmosphere which can permeate to the troposphere with changes to pressure cells that can alter cloud makeup and recently this warming has also been linked to negative atmospheric oscillations in the northern hemisphere (AO & NAO). A NASA paper written by Schmidt and Mann (who would have thought) HERE. When we add to this the Svensmark effect which is a direct result of the solar wind speed strength, and we start to see a few variables that might make up part of the big picture.
Lately via the Layman's count I have been watching the solar wind speed and how it varies from solar sunspot activity. I will also be watching the UV metrics over SC24. In particular I will be graphing the EUV (extreme UV 26-34nm) that has variations much larger than TSI over the solar cycle. Also of interest since June 2010 is the dominance of Negative Sunspots that display very low or negative EUV values. EUV is thought to be a product of faculae or plage regions which are brighter areas present around sunspots or indeed existing without sunspots. In the graph below I have compared the SIDC sunspot count with the EUV readings taken from the CELIAS/SEM experiment on the SOHO satellite. While the plots roughly follow each other there are distinct times when they are not in sync.
Click on the graphs for a full size view....above graph updated to 26th Feb 2010. SIDC figures updated at end of month.
The Layman's Count does not go back far enough for a comparison like this and the SIDC count probably represents a better marker for solar activity. The Layman's count is about comparing the current predicted grand minimum with the previous.
A recent report from NCAR that studies the effect of differnet ozone levels states:
"Top Down – Bottom up
In order for such reinforcement to take place many small wheels have to interdigitate. The initial process runs from the top downwards: increased solar radiation leads to more ozone and higher temperatures in the stratosphere. “The ultraviolet radiation share varies much more strongly than the other shares in the spectrum, i.e. by five to eight per cent, and that forms more ozone” explains Katja Matthes. As a result, especially the tropical stratosphere becomes warmer, which in turn leads to changed atmospheric circulation. Thus, the interrelated typical precipitation patterns in the tropics are also displaced.
The second process takes place in the opposite way: the higher solar activity leads to more evaporation in the cloud free areas. With the trade winds the increased amounts of moisture are transported to the equator, where they lead to stronger precipitation, lower water temperatures in the East Pacific and reduced cloud formation, which in turn allows for increased evaporation. Katja Matthes: “It is this positive back coupling that strengthens the process”. With this it is possible to explain the respective measurements and observations on the Earth’s surface."
"Solar irradiance variations are known to exhibit a strongwavelength dependence, with the amount of variability increasing towards shorter wavelengths (Lean 1991, Solanki & Unruh 1998). The integrated spectrum (total solar irradiance) changes by roughly 0.1% over the solar cycle. The same amount of variability is found for the visible wave-lengths where most of the solar radiative output occurs. Variations at UV and shorter wavelengths, however, exceed those at visible by orders of magnitude. Since solar UV radiation controls the amount of stratospheric ozone these variations have been proposed as a significant driver of changes of the terrestrial climate system (Haigh 1996)."
They also suggest the EUV under 300nm varies by the greatest amount over the cycle.
A new report by Robert Hodges and Jim Elsner expands on the UV/climate connection. Some interesting references to a 16% UV variation during solar flare activity (I knew I had seen the 16% figure previously) and also the polar vortex influences. Nicola Scafetta's new paper is also mentioned. http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Warming_Due_To_Ultraviolet_Effects_Through_Ozone_Chemistry.pdf
Thank you for undertaking this study. I suspect UV is the key to understanding how the sun drives climate. After all, the bulk of the stuff that makes up our atmosphere and oceans absorbs UV.
The evidence is piling up that clouds have a major effect on the climate, and that low cloud formation is correlated with cooler temperatures. The SKY and CLOUD experiments are revealing the role of solar activity and cosmic rays:
I'm 99% sure that this solar storm is coming. Is it just me or has it seemed like there has been a greater frequency in solar flares over the last couple of years? I've been watching <a href="www.spaceweather.com/">http://spaceweather.com/</a> over the last few years and I'm not a scientist, but I have noticed an increase in sunspots. I also have satellite internet, so whenever there's a solar flare the signal gets disrupted and I get a headache along w/ it. It could just be my ISP (internet providers in my area that I use in case you were wondering) but with the increase in reports of solar flares and articles like these I'm beginning to think that we really ARE in for a toasty treat in 2012 :/
<p>First of all, the reported findings by Joanna Haigh et all <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/2010/101006/full/news.2010.519.html" title="http://www.nature.com/news/2010/101006/full/news.2010.519.html">http://www.nature.com/news/2010/101006/full/news.2010.519.html</a> are absolutely correct on the basis of my experimental findings. Fig.1 of their paper showing UV dominant optical emission from Sun matches with the UV dominant optical emission observed from radioisotopes and XRF sources shown in Fig.1 of my peer reviewed paper: UV dominant optical emission newly detected from radioisotopes and XRF sources, Brazilian Journal of Physics, vol. 40, no. 1, March 2010, <a href="http://www.sbfisica.org.br/bjp/files/v40_38.pdf" title="http://www.sbfisica.org.br/bjp/files/v40_38.pdf">http://www.sbfisica.org.br/bjp/files/v40_38.pdf</a> . This suggests that UV dominant Sun light could be reproduced at laboratory level from radioisotopes and XRF sources. Most likely, radioisotopes produced by Uranium fission powers the Sun light. Astrophysicists were highly successful in detecting both Solar X-rays and UV or EUV. Now, the previously unknown atomic phenomenon described in my paper explains how solar gamma, beta, XRF emissions causes UV dominant optical emission. When solar cycle is at its maximum with maximum sun spots, solar x-ray emission, EUV and UV reach maximum 83 to 96% from a wide range of radioisotopes having different ionizing radiation energies and half lives produced by uranium fission taking place at different sites on the Sun’s surface. The solar X-rays can most likely be the XRF from radioisotopes dominant in XRF emission such as 113-Sn (In X-rays), 152-Eu (Sm X-rays), and 201-Tl (Hg X-rays) and due to knocking out many of the core electrons. All low energies not only X-rays but also gamma, and beta contribute to solar UV as much as 96% in the gross light intensity (Fig.3, BJP, 2010). That is why solar UV reaches maximum, and visible and near infrared radiations remain very low at around 4% in the gross light intensity, when solar cycle is at its maximum. Maximum solar UV seems to be responsible for lowering of temperatures as we approach North and South poles. My experimental study provides the key why Sun emits an amount of ultraviolet radiation in the spectrum four to six times smaller than that predicted by the empirical model, but an increase in radiation in the visible wavelength during waning period of the solar cycle, and why low solar UV warms the Earth's atmosphere. Sun provides us constant source of light, because radioisotopes which emit low energies whether gamma, beta or X-ray but having long half life maintain UV to be between 83-96%, while VIS and NIR radiations share the rest of percent light. During Sun’s waning period, the 96% UV slowly falls to 83% with the decay of short lived radioisotopes and long lived radioisotopes like 60-Co, 90-Sr remains at the spot of fission (Sun spots). In general, the 16% fall in UV reported by some researchers closely agrees with the 13% variation noticed in UV with the radioisotopes tested by me. For instance 131-I, with 8.0197 days half life decays to insignificant levels after ten half lives that means 80 days. Its predominant energy 0.6065 MeV (β) causes maximum UV (96.64%), while 3.22% VIS, and 0.14% NIR radiation intensities remain low in the gross light intensity (Table 1, Braz. J. P, March 2010). In comparison, 90-Sr undergoes slow decay with long half life of 28.8 years and continue to produce 90-Y (half life: 64 hours) until reaches insignificant levels after 288 years. The UV noticed to be maximum (96.64%) from 131-I caused by 0.6065 MeV energy dipped to 83.36% caused by 2.288 MeV energy of β from 90-Y, but VIS, and NIR radiation intensities raised to 8.02% and 8.62% respectively in the gross light intensity. Fall in UV and rise in VIS and NIR radiations from radioisotopes such as 90-Sr + 90-Y with long half life and strong ionizing energy that remain at the site of Uranium fission or as fallout on Sun’s surface explains the fall in UV and rise in VIS NIR radiation levels observed during Sun’s waning period by Joanna Haigh et all. Notably. the UV, visible (VIS), and near infrared (NIR) radiations also result from fission fragments (radioisotopes) reaching the Earth, by the atomic phenomenon described in my paper. The raise in near infrared (NIR) radiation caused by hard gamma, and beta emissions from long lived fission products such as 90-Sr + 90-Y warms the Earth's atmosphere.</p>
Hi Geoff, first time I've commented although I'm a daily visitor, so first things first. Geoff I have a great deal of confidence that you bring authenticity and conviction without bias to this science. I applaud your credits to it's predecessors whose input you regularly assign virtue. I would be most interested to discuss atmospheric dynamics with you and ask whether, if you are interested you would like this here or on another part of your site or if you would care to contact me directly first. I do believe that the solar dynamics and it's periodic variability control world climate. As an individual I am trying to piece together the true science of atmospheric response to solar energy.
Hi Geoff. Although virtually a daily visitor this is my first comment. So could I please commend you on the quality of this site. Secondly, having witnessed your manner and communication on this and other sites where I've read your views on how level and sensible you are. I value the way you credit your predecessors. This is most commendable and rare in today's society. I trust and value your opinion even though in future posts I may ask you to explain certain matters. That is the nature of this type of science.
The UK Met Office have reported a 'Sudden Stratospheric Warming' as being the forerunner to current UK easterlies. Adam Scaife himself has a most recent YouTube video found by searching 'Met Office SSW'. It's the most unconvincing, hand waving argument I've ever heard! He does not mention his earlier work on solar variability as an author of one of your above Nature Geoscience links.
The recently detected SSW is likely to be due to thermosphere partial collapse because of the Sun's 27 day UV 'heartbeat' skipping. I've commented on the Met Office blog under my Wordpress name but my comment won't be visible there until Monday. I would be most interested in your views Geoff.
Hi Geo, and thanks for your appreciation. I think Baldwin et al had it right some time back when he postulated that low UV and changes to the ozone column would affect planetary waves and the northern polar vortex. There are now papers surfacing that confirm their theory. I also think there is a shift worldwide in the higher amount of low pressure systems coming from a solar changed atmosphere.
It is tiring to watch the media and certain governments hype up the weather extremes without knowing their causes. Perhaps the Met Office is starting to realize that solar and oceanic forcing is going to be the real deal, but I feel it may take years before most of the hype is squashed.
Comments
UV radiation
Thank you for undertaking this study. I suspect UV is the key to understanding how the sun drives climate. After all, the bulk of the stuff that makes up our atmosphere and oceans absorbs UV.
Great Post, Geoff
The evidence is piling up that clouds have a major effect on the climate, and that low cloud formation is correlated with cooler temperatures. The SKY and CLOUD experiments are revealing the role of solar activity and cosmic rays:
http://www.sciencebits.com/SkyResults and
http://www.space.dtu.dk/English/Research/Research_divisions/Sun_Climate/Experiments_SC/CLOUD.aspx
Gerry
I'm 99% sure that this solar
I'm 99% sure that this solar storm is coming. Is it just me or has it seemed like there has been a greater frequency in solar flares over the last couple of years? I've been watching <a href="www.spaceweather.com/">http://spaceweather.com/</a> over the last few years and I'm not a scientist, but I have noticed an increase in sunspots. I also have satellite internet, so whenever there's a solar flare the signal gets disrupted and I get a headache along w/ it. It could just be my ISP (internet providers in my area that I use in case you were wondering) but with the increase in reports of solar flares and articles like these I'm beginning to think that we really ARE in for a toasty treat in 2012 :/
First of all, the reported
<p>First of all, the reported findings by Joanna Haigh et all <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/2010/101006/full/news.2010.519.html" title="http://www.nature.com/news/2010/101006/full/news.2010.519.html">http://www.nature.com/news/2010/101006/full/news.2010.519.html</a> are absolutely correct on the basis of my experimental findings. Fig.1 of their paper showing UV dominant optical emission from Sun matches with the UV dominant optical emission observed from radioisotopes and XRF sources shown in Fig.1 of my peer reviewed paper: UV dominant optical emission newly detected from radioisotopes and XRF sources, Brazilian Journal of Physics, vol. 40, no. 1, March 2010, <a href="http://www.sbfisica.org.br/bjp/files/v40_38.pdf" title="http://www.sbfisica.org.br/bjp/files/v40_38.pdf">http://www.sbfisica.org.br/bjp/files/v40_38.pdf</a> . This suggests that UV dominant Sun light could be reproduced at laboratory level from radioisotopes and XRF sources. Most likely, radioisotopes produced by Uranium fission powers the Sun light. Astrophysicists were highly successful in detecting both Solar X-rays and UV or EUV. Now, the previously unknown atomic phenomenon described in my paper explains how solar gamma, beta, XRF emissions causes UV dominant optical emission. When solar cycle is at its maximum with maximum sun spots, solar x-ray emission, EUV and UV reach maximum 83 to 96% from a wide range of radioisotopes having different ionizing radiation energies and half lives produced by uranium fission taking place at different sites on the Sun’s surface. The solar X-rays can most likely be the XRF from radioisotopes dominant in XRF emission such as 113-Sn (In X-rays), 152-Eu (Sm X-rays), and 201-Tl (Hg X-rays) and due to knocking out many of the core electrons. All low energies not only X-rays but also gamma, and beta contribute to solar UV as much as 96% in the gross light intensity (Fig.3, BJP, 2010). That is why solar UV reaches maximum, and visible and near infrared radiations remain very low at around 4% in the gross light intensity, when solar cycle is at its maximum. Maximum solar UV seems to be responsible for lowering of temperatures as we approach North and South poles. My experimental study provides the key why Sun emits an amount of ultraviolet radiation in the spectrum four to six times smaller than that predicted by the empirical model, but an increase in radiation in the visible wavelength during waning period of the solar cycle, and why low solar UV warms the Earth's atmosphere. Sun provides us constant source of light, because radioisotopes which emit low energies whether gamma, beta or X-ray but having long half life maintain UV to be between 83-96%, while VIS and NIR radiations share the rest of percent light. During Sun’s waning period, the 96% UV slowly falls to 83% with the decay of short lived radioisotopes and long lived radioisotopes like 60-Co, 90-Sr remains at the spot of fission (Sun spots). In general, the 16% fall in UV reported by some researchers closely agrees with the 13% variation noticed in UV with the radioisotopes tested by me. For instance 131-I, with 8.0197 days half life decays to insignificant levels after ten half lives that means 80 days. Its predominant energy 0.6065 MeV (β) causes maximum UV (96.64%), while 3.22% VIS, and 0.14% NIR radiation intensities remain low in the gross light intensity (Table 1, Braz. J. P, March 2010). In comparison, 90-Sr undergoes slow decay with long half life of 28.8 years and continue to produce 90-Y (half life: 64 hours) until reaches insignificant levels after 288 years. The UV noticed to be maximum (96.64%) from 131-I caused by 0.6065 MeV energy dipped to 83.36% caused by 2.288 MeV energy of β from 90-Y, but VIS, and NIR radiation intensities raised to 8.02% and 8.62% respectively in the gross light intensity. Fall in UV and rise in VIS and NIR radiations from radioisotopes such as 90-Sr + 90-Y with long half life and strong ionizing energy that remain at the site of Uranium fission or as fallout on Sun’s surface explains the fall in UV and rise in VIS NIR radiation levels observed during Sun’s waning period by Joanna Haigh et all. Notably. the UV, visible (VIS), and near infrared (NIR) radiations also result from fission fragments (radioisotopes) reaching the Earth, by the atomic phenomenon described in my paper. The raise in near infrared (NIR) radiation caused by hard gamma, and beta emissions from long lived fission products such as 90-Sr + 90-Y warms the Earth's atmosphere.</p>
M.A.Padmanabha Rao
27 day frequency in the EUV
27 day frequency in the EUV record.
Hi Geoff, first time I've
Hi Geoff, first time I've commented although I'm a daily visitor, so first things first. Geoff I have a great deal of confidence that you bring authenticity and conviction without bias to this science. I applaud your credits to it's predecessors whose input you regularly assign virtue. I would be most interested to discuss atmospheric dynamics with you and ask whether, if you are interested you would like this here or on another part of your site or if you would care to contact me directly first. I do believe that the solar dynamics and it's periodic variability control world climate. As an individual I am trying to piece together the true science of atmospheric response to solar energy.
Geo
Hi Geoff. Although virtually
Hi Geoff. Although virtually a daily visitor this is my first comment. So could I please commend you on the quality of this site. Secondly, having witnessed your manner and communication on this and other sites where I've read your views on how level and sensible you are. I value the way you credit your predecessors. This is most commendable and rare in today's society. I trust and value your opinion even though in future posts I may ask you to explain certain matters. That is the nature of this type of science.
The UK Met Office have reported a 'Sudden Stratospheric Warming' as being the forerunner to current UK easterlies. Adam Scaife himself has a most recent YouTube video found by searching 'Met Office SSW'. It's the most unconvincing, hand waving argument I've ever heard! He does not mention his earlier work on solar variability as an author of one of your above Nature Geoscience links.
The recently detected SSW is likely to be due to thermosphere partial collapse because of the Sun's 27 day UV 'heartbeat' skipping. I've commented on the Met Office blog under my Wordpress name but my comment won't be visible there until Monday. I would be most interested in your views Geoff.
Geo
Hi Geo, and thanks for your
Hi Geo, and thanks for your appreciation. I think Baldwin et al had it right some time back when he postulated that low UV and changes to the ozone column would affect planetary waves and the northern polar vortex. There are now papers surfacing that confirm their theory. I also think there is a shift worldwide in the higher amount of low pressure systems coming from a solar changed atmosphere.
It is tiring to watch the media and certain governments hype up the weather extremes without knowing their causes. Perhaps the Met Office is starting to realize that solar and oceanic forcing is going to be the real deal, but I feel it may take years before most of the hype is squashed.