question

What modulates our Sun? The majority of science work on the principle that the Sun is self modulating and each solar cycle is a product of a random number generator. There are others that suspect the Sun is modulated by the planets with a special emphasis on Uranus & Neptune. Thanks to Carl Smith who has recently left us we have new knowledge that significantly adds to Jose, Landscheidt & Charvàtovà's work.

Geoff Sharp

More Massive Winters Expected for the Northern Hemisphere.

The previous massive winter forecasts can be found at:

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/224

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/189

The Worlds oceans as of July 2012 above.

The coming winter in the Northern Hemisphere looks to be shaping up for another massive event perhaps bigger than what we experienced in 2011/2012. The last winter coincided with the highest level of EUV and FUV since the beginning of SC24 which although low by normal standards the current UV level is trending quite a bit lower. In fact the current level is not far above the SC22/23 minimum. At present the EUV levels are less than half of the values recorded during the peak of SC23.

There is strong evidence that low EUV and FUV are major players in determining the jet stream position and strength along with major changes to ozone quantities at different levels of the atmosphere. UV also has an influence on the NH polar vortex which when the conditions are right favoring a negative AO over the winter months. When both of these options come together the greatest effect is felt in the Northern Hemisphere. During the summer in the NH and the winter at present in the SH the mainstream media are picking up the relevance of the jet stream patterns that are occurring. This is a shift from the previous year of not only of the knowledge gained but also of the increased activity of the jet stream through 2012. If this pattern continues into 2013 we should witness some big extremes in weather with blocking highs and masses of cold air feeding from the poles.

Last season was mixed with most of the USA getting off with a warm winter, but other parts of Europe, Asia and Alaska experienced the massive event which was named the "Great Winter Freeze of 2012". The position of the jet stream was the culprit of the mixed weather which mainly saw a positive AO, but this season has the chance of being different. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a quasi-periodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere which last season mostly favored the formation of a positive AO. When the QBO is in easterly mode the planetary waves that disrupt the NH polar vortex are more likely to occur which tends to produce a negative AO. A negative AO in the past few winters has positioned the jet stream so that the USA and western Europe feel the worst of the Arctic cold air movement and blocking highs that perpetuate this event. The current and expected position of the QBO is looking to favor a negative AO this season. The white area is the easterly flow.

If the UV levels are still low by December which is the current trend the liklyhood of advanced jet stream formation and a negative AO are highly possible and most likely to occur. The ENSO position will also play a role but more on a local scale. Some of the coldest temperatures recorded in the UK occurred in Dec 2010 when we were in El Nino territory. All the models that are produced by the meteorology groups are pointing towards a El Nino forming this winter in the NH. I am not so sure the models have the all required data to predict accurately as we are in a different para-dime with low solar output and a neg PDO. Most that ascribe to AGW ignore the effects of solar and ocean influences on climate and prefer to claim everything is man made, the models suffer the same fate in my opinion.

The ocean temp anomaly diagram at the opening of this article shows a neg PDO position which has the customary hot spot in the central northern pacific. Last year the prevailing winds that come with a neg PDO moved some of this warm water towards New Guinea which in turn fueled the Walker circulation pump that drives the trade winds which in turn builds up water against Asia and influences the level of the Thermocline. This pushes cold water from below that surfaces off the South American coast and flows towards Asia with assistance of the trade winds. It is still too early to call but July has seen a change with the SOI going positive and the trade winds are maintained. There is still a high chance of a La Nina forming which would make three in a row.

Even if a weak El Nino forms and the QBO has no effect on the AO position the jet streams will still play a major role in forming massive winter events, that should be with us for the next 20 years at least if my solar predictions continue to play out. So far everything is right on track.

 

 

sea surface temperature

The World Oceans today. 

Comments

(No subject)

Kamau K. Canton

With all of the above said,


With all of the above said, do you think that California and the West Coast will likely experience more wet/snowy winters than dry? Hence should this year be very different than last because we did not get much precipitation until very late in the season. What are your thoughts?

Kamau K. Canton

It is very difficult to

It is very difficult to predict the position of the jet stream 6 months out, other than there will be extreme events in the NH. But if the AO does maintain a substantial period of neg numbers the chances of more snow for the west coast are much greater.

I much enjoy the explanations

I much enjoy the explanations of the reasons for the coming winter.
The PDO is negative and if the AO goes negative this winter we should experience a deep cold winter.
Thank you for the clear way this site is run.

NASA recently reported that

NASA recently reported that Voyager 1 encountered an increase of cosmic rays during May/early june of 5% in one day and 9% in a month. It is on the outer edge of the heliosphere. I wonder if this increase is from Supernova 2011fe (August 2011)? The GCRs don't travel as fast as light so take longer to get here depending on their energy levels. So we might expect even more increased levels of GCR induced cloud formation for a few years. Glad I'm not going to be in the Northern Hemisphere over their next winter. Also volcanic activity seems to be on the rise again from the increased muon activity due to GCR increase.

 

REPLY: Will watch out for the GCR count, could be interesting

Brent Walker

The sea surface anomaly graph

The sea surface anomaly graph has been developing over the past month with the northern pacific warm pool building significantly as the Neg PDO continues. The trade winds and SOI index are still not favorable to El Nino conditions. Some cooling of the South American coast is worth watching but at present the water above Australia needs to warm before a La Nina can form. I think there is a very good chance this could happen.

I have added the AO and sea surface anomaly graphs to the article for ease of use.

Posted yesterday by

The water above Australia has

The water above Australia has warmed in the last week, if it continues to warm or if the hot water near Japan makes its way south we can expect conditions favorable for La Nina. The SOI has been trending positive this month which greatly assists.

Alice Springs has over 150 days since the last rainfall which was last seen in 1971. The PDO and Sun were in similar positions back then.

I have been reading a lot

I have been reading a lot about the current conditions of the Pacific Ocean and many sources point towards an extremely weak El Nino or possibly even La Nada conditions to prevail for the better part of the winter. I also have read that the QBO is still in it's Easterly Phase which doesn't promote cold air coming from the Arctic but that is expected to flip to the Westerly phase which allows for both the AO and NAO to have negative departures. How much could the MJO factor in to have a role dominating the Northern Hemispheres weather with the present conditions? More particularly...the Sierras received a below average year last winter. Will the MJO be a determining factor this year for creating an average or above average winter in the Sierra's?

REPLY: The Easterly QBO is thought to allow better passage of planetary waves to the poles which disrupts the polar vortex and drives the AO negative. The QBO has little to no effect on the AAO because of the topography of the Southern Hemisphere. With respect to the MJO I think we have to abandon our previous knowledge and watch the stronger effects from the neg PDO and loopier jet streams.

 

-Mikhail K

So will the Neg PDO and

So will the Neg PDO and loopier jet streams likely to give us abundant rainfall/heavy snows for the Sierra's in California this upcoming Winter? Approximately how soon will things get going around here? We hate to see a repeat of last winter's dismal snowpack or else the state will be in real trouble. What are  your thoughts?

Kamau K. Canton

So will California likely to

So will California likely to have heavier rain/snowfall this upcoming Winter based on current set up of the SSTA, PDO, and eventual switch to Neg AO/NAO? Will the stronger effects from the neg PDO and loopier jet streams be a major factor?

Kamau K. Canton

Kamau, After reading the

Kamau,

After reading the latest ENSO predictions from U.S. resources like NOAA, and Weather Bell, I'd say the jury is still out on a mild El Nino, and it's eventual effects on California.  The weather pattern during the month of October has in the past, been an indicator.  The thinking is a couple of low pressure systems may bring a "dusting" to the Sierra mid-month.  Hopefully this will translate into a wet or above normal precipitation year for CA.

Farrell MD

I've heard from another site

I've heard from another site that the El Nino is taking a dive towards very neutral condtions. This would be a winter of La Nada if that occured which hasn't happened in quite some time. I honestly think that the way things have been going with such a negative PDO for so long that the El Nino really doesn't stand a big chance of becoming very strong or even having a very significant effect. I think that the real player will be AO which is always a wild card and if that turns negative for a long time that would cause the PNA to go negative which from what I've read has a very direct impact to the strength of winters and snowfall on the West Coast. What would be really interesting is to see how much lower the PDO goes and if by the end of winter it is once again brining La Nada conditions toward La Nina conditions. This I think would really coincide with a lowered solar acitivty...which is what we've been experiencing.  

-Mikhail K

The neg PDO will maintain

The neg PDO will maintain cool water off the US west coast and the ENSO position is unlikely to move to a strong El Niño. But the AO position has potential if negative to move cold air over the west coast. I am still watching the hot pool around Japan that has potential to fuel a possible La Niña, so many factors are yet to play out. A strongly negative AO is really the only hope for a west coast solid winter, but the wheels are greased in that direction.

I agree Geoff, The AO has a

I agree Geoff,

The AO has a nonlinear relationship with the west coast. So unless it is Strong in its phase, I would not put too much hope on it alone.

H-

The SST's are interesting

The SST's are interesting right now, a cold tongue is forming off Peru with what warm water left over in the Nino3.4 region subject to the ever present trade winds, directing this water towards New Guinea. Conditions are still primed for a weak La Nina as the SOI refuses to throw in the towel. A low pressure is expected to build above New Guinea next week which could further fire up the Walker Pump and increase trade winds.

It does appear the

It does appear the ingredients for a "moderate" El Nino are weakening.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/...

Farrell MD

<p>I agree, from looking at

<p>I agree, from looking at the most recent SSTA in the Central Pacific, it looks like a cold togue is starting to form again which leads me to believe that EL Nino is starting to shrink and that is because we are currently in the negative PDO phase. Now, even if we get a weak La Nina, can we still expect a possible wet winter for the state of California? It makes me nervous when La Nina develops because more often than not we can end up having a below avg water year. We don't want to have a repeat of last year's dismal winter weather pattern which was so dry!! What's your thoughts?</p>

Kamau K. Canton

<p>Another thought,

<p>Another thought, California's weather is not only affected by just El Nino and La Nina ocean patterns, there are many other factors involved. Case in point, during the 2010-2011 winter season California had record rainfall/snowfall for that water year with a strong -AO/NAO; but last year was a different story, we a strong La Nina with a +AO/NAO which brought record dry conditions to the state. The statement above from another individual is correct that the AO and NAO is nonlinear(a type of relationship between two entities, in which change in one entity does not correspond with constant change in the other entity). It appears to me that either the negative or positive effects of the AO/NAO and its relationship to the west coast weather pattern during the winter months depends on the atmospheric patterns strengths. It's impossible to predict their strengths at this time, but based on the current patterns, QBO, the sun's solar activity, and the recent and sudden change in the SSTA in Central Pacific, MJO(Madden Julian Oscillation) what ideas you may have about this upcoming winter on the West Coast and has the AO/NAO been strongly negative or positive in recent days/weeks? I'm thinking we will have a better idea of the coming winter for us perhaps around mid to late November.</p>

Kamau K. Canton

Yes I have been saying for

Yes I have been saying for some time that the AO position will be paramount in determining the amount of snowfall in your area. We have seen that a highly neg AO positions the jet stream to favor the west coast by dragging cold air off the Alaskan area that loops down as far as Mexico. AO predictions are a black art, some of the assisting conditions for a neg AO to develope this winter are in place, but we are in the hands of the gods.

 

I'm also a California

I'm also a California resident and I've been looking at models and patterns for several years now. There are so many factors that go into whether or not we have a good winter or not. It's easy to say when there is a very negative AO. It's very very difficult to predict from what I've read when the ENSO is Neutral or very near neutral and when the QBO is in the Westerly Phase. Not to mention the MJO always has effects on weather systems but predicting the position of the MJO is really quite difficult to predict. The PNA is also a big player which is once again hovering around neutral as of now. The fact that it's neutral is problematic because it doesn't really give a great indication as to whether the west coast will be wet or dry. We would like to see it negative but as of now that's up to anyone's guess. I think the main items to watch this winter is both the ENSO and the AO. Hopefully the AO goes negative and if the ENSO starts to coincide at all with the PDO we would be in for another La Nina.  

-Mikhail K

As I commented before I

As I commented before I believe the AO will be deeply negative this winter as the EUV and 10.7cm flux are very low for a sun cycle approaching  a maximum.

This portends a winter that will be alarmingly cold  in the uk.

 

South Australia had its first

jet stream

South Australia had its first snow in October for over 100 years, while other states including NSW suffered snow conditions which necessitated recovery teams, the snow almost reaching into Queensland. The jet stream can be seen to be funneling cold air straight off Antarctica which is sure to be repeated in the Northern Hemisphere over their winter. This week already saw many cold records set in North America which is also seeing the power of the jet stream.

On another topic the water of Peru today is looking very encouraging for future cooling.

If Geoff is even half

If Geoff is even half correct,and he is nearly always totally correct we are in for a very cold winter.

A new animation showing the

A new animation showing the movement of warmer water from the NW Pacific. The availability of the warmer water to the area above New Guinea providing assistance to the Walker Circulation Pump which has maintained the equatorial trade winds and influence pressure patterns that govern the SOI.

wind map

The BOM wind speed and direction map showing how some of the warmer water moves south from near Japan.

Forecasters surprised by El

Forecasters surprised by El Nino turnaround.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-24/forecasters-surprised-by-el-nino-t...

"Dr Watkins says they are not sure why there has been a cooling down.

"It actually is quite a unique situation if we end up not going into an El Nino event," he said.

"It'll sort of be the biggest turnaround that we've actually seen in our records going back to about 1950, so quite unprecedented."

I watched a BOM interview yesterday that stated the last time this occurred was during the 1950's...this is right in the middle of a neg PDO.

 

h/t daveonthejob

The perfect storm is building

The perfect storm is building in North America, Hurricane Sandy after forming from multiple cells is heading directly towards a jet stream induced movement of Arctic air. The two should meet in the next day or two which may prove interesting. During times of low UV there seems to be more and deeper low pressure cells that contribute to stronger storms as well as influencing the jet stream.

Yes this storm is very

Yes this storm is very interesting. I wonder if it is really bigger than the hurricane in November 1804? That one hit eastern US and sank 244 ships. Or how about the hurricane in December 1805? This seems to have engulfed the whole country and caused enormous damage. 

I'll bet the big reinsurers are nervous. I understand that the early estimates of cost are around $10b but I suspect that the final figure will be very much higher.

Brent Walker

The cost of this weather

The cost of this weather event is certainly growing, which would have been much much lower in lives and dollars if we were experiencing normal jet stream conditions. The solar influenced jet stream instead of pushing hurricane Sandy out to sea, sucked the superstorm towards landfall as witnessed and now is now dumping several feet of snow in the north east. This system is being blocked by a stationary high near Greenland which is typical of the current neg AO in place that has also influenced the position of the jet stream.

Most of Europe is already experiencing an early winter as seen on Iceagenow.info, perhaps the story should have read "Another Massive Autumn for the Northern Hemisphere" ?

Yes I was going to ask you

Yes I was going to ask you about the AO. It certainly seems to have gone strongly negative already although there are predictions for it to return to positive territory in November.

I was also reading that the snow pack in Eastern Russia is particularly impressive already. This could suggest a massively cold winter.

 

Brent Walker

A new IceAgeNow news feed has

A new IceAgeNow news feed has been added to the left hand menu making it easier to keep up with all the global cooling events that are missed by the mainstrem media.

The predicted jet stream

The predicted jet stream position for the next few days looks very interesting and should drive cold air towards the west coast of USA and then drift eastwards. The AO has just turned positive so it will be interesting to see if the current jet stream position changes. The NW winter is certainly off to an early start.

jet stream

Hi Geoff, How are things

Hi Geoff, How are things shaping up for California winter storms this year? Since the AO has just turned positive and the jet stream is starting to become more active in the Pacific Northwest is that a good sign for California to get heavy snows and rains this year to refill the state's reservoirs?

REPLY: Hi, the AO turning positive will probably move the jet stream away from the west coast as seen in the majority last year. These are new observations so we need to build more data before making solid predictions. The next few days should provide some activity in your region.

Kamau K. Canton

Now could the AO turn

Now could the AO turn negative again at some point? Is the wet spell we are currently experiencing be temporary and will eventually get back into dry pattern that could lead to another dismal water year for the west coast unless the AO turns back to negative? The latest long range outlook seems to point us to a wetter/snowy pattern thru Thanksgiving into early December.

REPLY: This seems to be the recently observed pattern, but we must also take into consideration other factors like ENSO. I am thinking we are more likely to see a greater percentage of neg AO this NH winter, time will tell.

Kamau K. Canton

I have updated the Ocean SST

I have updated the Ocean SST animation upto todays date which now shows the area above New guinea with warmer than average water. The scene is set for the trade winds to increase and a possible La Nina to form.

The jet stream forecast for

The jet stream forecast for late November is showing a pool of cold air surging south from the Arctic pole to central and eastern Europe. This seems to be a regular pattern when the AO is in positive mode during low solar output and a neg PDO. The USA & UK are mainly spared in these conditions but the chance of future neg AO events are high which will reverse the current situation.

Back in the Pacific the SOI has been consistantly positive the past week which shows signs of the Walker Pump encouraging La Nina type conditions.

The current EUV graph is

euv graph

The current EUV graph is maintaining the trend since July. The choppy trend in the last 6 months is most likely associated with the flat sunspot record over the same period. Polar vortex breakup should be encouraged with the expected ozone changes in the upper stratosphere.

The earlier GSF jet stream prediction looks to be on target with perhaps more emphasis on the UK. The sudden drop in the AO could be a factor.

I keep a monthly average (of

I keep a monthly average (of the daily average) graph. So far the peak monthly average in this cycle was in November 2011 and this peak was just 46% of the peak montly average in cycle 23, which occurred in November 2001. If this cycle has already produced its peak montly average EUV output then it suggests that there may be some pretty nasty winters in the Northern Hemisphere for some decades.

Also, so far, the average of monthly average of EUV for cycle 24 is just under 71% of what it was for the whole of cycle 23. I think that it is a fair bet that by the time this cycle ends its average monthly EUV output will end up under 60% of cycle 23. And solar cycle 23 was not a strong cycle.

Its a pity that the USC's space sciences centre data doesn't go back further. (It comes from SOHO).

Brent Walker

The AO is now deeply negative

The AO is now deeply negative . We in the UK are in for a cold spell ! 

The jet stream is still

The jet stream is still active in the SH. Snow is forecast in the southern states of Oz today. 

 

The AO has not yet turned

The AO has not yet turned positive which means the UK is in for a prolonged cold spell. It is only late autumn not winter yet, it might be a long cold winter to come! 

Yes it is fascinating. Also

Yes it is fascinating. Also the Arctic Oscillation is still strongly negative and forecast to stay negative until Christmas (and beyond?) This suggests that there will be white Christmasses in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere and quite possibly a few frozen rivers in Europe and the UK. I wonder how much will then be reported in the Australian press?

Also isn't it fascinating the Canada, Russia and Japan pulled out of Kyoto 2. I wonder if many of the residents of those countries now believe in global warming?

Brent Walker

The sunspot numbers are for

The sunspot numbers are for this month about one third of the level that one would associate with a cycle maximum.

The AO is still negative and winter is just about to begin.

 For us in the UK the winter looks as if it might rival the winters of 1946/1947 and 1961/1962 in both snow and cold.

The chance of La Niña

The chance of La Niña increasing with each passing day. The SOI has been very negative lately but that is an anomaly, the area around Tahiti is experiencing usual conditions so that the SOI is currently not a good gauge of the trade winds.

The AO is playing the negative game, plenty of winter fun to come in the next week.

The NH climate is at a very

The NH climate is at a very sensitive point. Too much albedo could set into motion a feedback loop. The more it snows the colder it gets and the longer it remains cold; depending on how much snow accumulates (30 feet inthe mountains or so). The other Jonah on the boat (you know its there you don't know where) is dust or particulates in the air caused by vulcanism. We are right at that point in our NH year when albedo matters. So do we have 10, 15, 20, or 30 meters in the mountains yet? (are we there yet?) Is it enough to remain through the NH summer?

Think Wisconsonian-Illinoisan

A nice run down of the NH

A nice run down of the NH winter conditions by Doug L. Hoffman at Climate Realists. The 65% snow cover of the USA is compelling. The neg AO and the contorted lower jet stream have certainly had an impact so far this winter.

It is a big drop for the LSC.

It is a big drop for the LSC. The F10.7 is also going to shop a big drop to 105 (according to my calcs), which suggests that the average EUV and magnetic strength figures for the month will have a similar drop.

I have been interested in the NH jet streams they seem to have been pretty well locked for a while with the big swoop up from the south in the Eastern Atlantic protecting the UK and Western Europe from the extreme cold being experienced elsewhere. The current AO predictions suggest that it will soon return to positive territory for a week or so before going negative again. I wonder whether that will change the current jet stream configuration and if so would this then cause the UK and Western Europe to finally cop it? This will be interesting. It is worth noting that the UK met office's 14 day forecasts for London suggest it will get pretty chilly from Saturday 12 by which time the AO should be back in negative territory. Hmmm! This GM is going to teach us a lot about extreme weather!

Brent Walker

The GSN SC5 values at this

The GSN SC5 values at this stage are looking very much like SC24. Maybe the GSN will be seen as a more likely representation of SC5, perhaps this is the normal shape of the 1st cycle of a grand minimum. The F10.7 flux only rose to 120 this time which should show a corresponding trend in the EUV.

The jet stream is interesting. My observations over the past 3 years suggest a neg AO tends to produce massive weather more to the USA (incl west coast) and also the UK and Western Europe. The latter has had some extremes but not as bad this time around with the neg AO. More fun to come.

 

          Happy New Year  to

          Happy New Year  to every one with the wish that they and their families and friends enjoy good health in the year to come.
          The AO has been brieflv positive and the 10.7 flux is rather low.
          A cold Winter for the UK may start 20 January.

Most of North America has

Most of North America has been experiencing very cold temperatures these past few days and will continue to do so into the weekend and a bit beyond. Living in an Alpine area it has been quite cold here and the forecast is for negative temperatures (Fahrenhit). This does not happen often where I live. I also noticed that Jerusalem received quite a doss of snow this past week. I was wondering if this can be traced back to the AO shifting into it's negative phase...? The PDO has stayed negative for several years now but recently fluctuated in a positive direction, yet I'm hearing talks about an La Nina returning for next season and that the ENSO is trending negative once more. Are these all triggers and signs of more cold to come..? 

Thank you.

-Mikhail K

The AO is a factor in the

The AO is a factor in the position of the jet stream, massive winter weather seems more likely in the USA and Western Europe when the AO is negative. The Sudden Stratospheric Warming seems to be playing its hand again right now as axpected which breaks up the polar vortex and shifts the pressure zones creating a neg AO.

Overall the low UV I think is the main driver of the neg AO with the eastery QBO assisting greatly right now.

I also think we are getting closer to a La Nina at present which has been influenced by the neg PDO in my opinion. The trend for the next 20 years should be more La Nina.

 

I am two days out with my

I am two days out with my previous comment,

      With credit to Geoff Sharp ,Weatherunderground and also many others. I am a pigmy

standing on the shoulders of giants.

 The winter of 2012/2013 will most likely start a run of colder winters.

The 10.7 flux is slowly declining now 123 after managing to reach174 on the 10 of this month [credit NOAA] The sunspot count is now 74 after reaching 166 on the 11 0f this month [credit NOAA] this is a low value at solar maximum.

The Laymans sunspot count is a truer reflexion of the sunspot count and is even lower.

   GLOBAL COOLING???????

I am concerned about food

I am concerned about food production as world-wide grain stocks are gradually trending lower. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation is concerned. Given that there is a very high probability of one or more very large volcanic eruptions during this grand minimum there are awful consequences if, as a consequence, the world runs out of basic cerals. Already India appears to be stockpiling and I expect other countries will follow suit. I expressed these concerns in my submission to the Australian Senate Environment Committee's inquiry into Australia's preparedness for extreme weather events. See

http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate_Committee... Submission number 43. 

Brent Walker

Thanks Brent, it will be

Thanks Brent, it will be interesting to see if the Senate will take any notice of the real science taking place. My only objection to your submission is that the current grand minimum I hope will NOT be called the "Eddy Minimum" but rather it will be called the Landscheidt Minimum after the man who truly deserves the naming rights.

Feel free to post a link to your recent summary paper that many readers here will appreciate.

 

 

I agree about the name coined

I agree about the name coined by the astrophysics community. However I was thankful that it has a name as it provided some legitimacy to the arguments I used in the submission. While ever the new grand minimum remained unnamed it made it much harder to argue that mankind needs to respond to the risks that it poses. If its name later changes to Landscheidt that's OK.

If readers want to read the longer nature's risks paper it is at  http://www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/Papers/WBR9_Walker.pdf

Please note that I am an actuary so the paper was written to help my profession understand the risks posed by a grand minimum.

Brent Walker

The Arctic oscillation has

The Arctic oscillation has been strongly negative since Feb 6th and the forecasts suggest more of the same through to the end of the month. In Europe winter is said to last until March 20 but I suspect many will be complaining about the continuing winter long after that date. I will be delivering an updated Nature's risks paper in London in June to a sceptical actuarial audience from across the continent. Their reaction will be interesting.

Brent Walker

Thanks Brent, let us know how

Thanks Brent, let us know how it goes.

The AO and NH winter has certainly gone to plan this season.

It is interesting that the

It is interesting that the two big sunspots are unipolar. The next biggest also has a high darkness ratio more like a unipolar spot although it is classed as a mixed polarity spot. Presumably this is why the F10 flux is so low for the amount of activity. I suspect the magnetic strength and EUV emissions will be relatively low also.

 

REPLY: The F10.7 flux has been interesting. For about 18 months it hit at least 140 every 27 days, that pattern seems to be broken now with 27 day peaks around 110-120. The EUV values will be following.

Brent Walker

The EUV average values for

The EUV average values for this solar cycle are still just 61% of those for the same period in cycle 23. 

Although we know cycle 23 was weaker than cycle 22 I wondered if I could figure out how much weaker it was for EUV emissions. Since F10.7 cm flux has often been used as a proxy for EUV I compared average F10.7 cm flux values for the whole of cycle 23 against cycle 22. The reduction was 11.9%. But since F10.7 cm flux is only used as a proxy for EUV I wondered whether how good a proxy it was. Comparing the average F10.7 cm flux so far for this cycle compared to the same period for cycle 23 showed it was weaker in this cycle only by 20.0% Since the difference is so great between the EUV change and the F10.7 cm flux change I calculated the EUV change between cycle 22 and 23 to allow for this variation between the proxy and the actual figures. The result is that so far for cycle 24 EUV is of the order of 60% below that produced by cycle 22. 

This is an amazing difference. EUV photons predominantly create ozone, which produces heat and UVB photons are the predominant destroyers of ozone.Given that UVB emissions are supposed to  vary by around 10% it is easy to see why the Stratosphere and upper Troposphere have become colder. This in turn would have caused the changes in the Rossby waves.

Brent Walker

Yesterday our Australian ABC

Yesterday our Australian ABC was heavily promoting the BOM forecast of a dry winter with less than average snowfalls. They are obviously oblivious to the power of the jet stream that has already given us well above average snowfalls for the past few years. I will watch this season with interest.

UPDATE: One day later the South East Coast of Australia experienced very cold conditions with above average rainfall along with substantial autumn snowfall, this was a result of an intense low pressure system. It has been my observation that during low solar output there are more low pressure systems that also work in conjunction with the jet stream. Weather Bureau's of the world need to recognize this phenomenon and look past their models based on history that does not include low solar data.

Three days later and the local snow continues, also on the other side of the World the UK is experiencing late spring snow as an Arctic blast is sucked down as the jet stream loops above France. There was no warning of this event prior according to the MET.

So, it looks like another La

So, it looks like another La Nina is in the works. We here in California have had 2 dry Winters in a row. In light of the current status of the PDO, what has been going on so far on the East Coast, and it has been unusually humid and hot in California to which we even had some rare thunderstorms/rain here. 1. Could we get more moonsonal moisture surges in our state later this summer. 2.Could this strange weather pattern lead us to a much wetter/snowy upcoming winter 2013-2014 for the state? I know it is way to early to tell. What are your thoughts??

Kamau K. Canton

So far this has been a

So far this has been a strange year for weather. I see that there is another La Nina weather pattern maybe developing, but it seems as though everything is in the neutral phase. We also have a cold PDO in place overall in the Pacific. I live here in Northern California and recently we have had a severe heat wave, rare thundertorm activity due to moonsonal moisture from the SW, which sometimes we get in August/September time frame which can also come from dying tropical systems from the Eastern Pacific which has also been very active so far this year. We have had 2 bone dry wimters in a row. Given the current conditions with another La Nina possible, which is not the only factor that effects weather of course, we also have to keep the QBO(Quasi Strataspheric wind pattern that blows east to west or vice versa) in mind, what are your best guess of our weather pattern we could have from later this summer going into winter 2013-2014 for us? 1. Could we see more moonsonal surges along with heat, especially during Aug/Sep time frame? 2. Could we likely to see hopefully some drought busting storms for the West Coast so we don't have to worry about another dry winter?

Kamau K. Canton

  Here in Connecticut, and

 

Here in Connecticut, and all over the world, there are anomalous weather reports almost all associated with cooler than normal conditions.  I hear echoes of, “I’ve never seen anything like this”, and indeed many weather related records are being set.  It is becoming the norm, to hear about weather extremes in the news.

Well that is what should be expected after nearly 400 years of solar induced global warming.  In addition and most specifically, there was a final ramp-up in the last half of the last century that was unprecedented in all of the last 400 years.  The peak of solar input for the last 400 years occurred in the late 1950’s at solar max of solar cycle 19.  During the 1960’s, solar cycle 20 was weak and the media found scientists who suggested an ice age was coming.  The next two solar cycles, first around 1979, and again around 1990, at the peaks of solar cycles 21 and 22, we had two cycles, both historically high.  Solar cycle 23 was slightly above average, peaking around the year 2000.   Since then, there has been an extended solar minimum, even now as we pass solar max of cycle 24, sunspot activity is minimal, as is UV and the solar wind.

As I see it, solar induced global warming turned the corner in the late 50’s.  In spite of that, the Earth continued to warm, but at a lesser rate.  It was not until the passing of the peak of solar cycle 23 that an actual turnaround of the Earth’s annual heat budget began to go negative and actual global cooling began.  Natural global systems have substantial lag times between cause and effect.  This is not in compliance with instant gratification.  The thermal turnaround took many years.  It was slow, imperceptible for many year, but now the tides have turned and a new imbalance has arisen.   

Today we have global extremes, the likes of which, no living human has ever experienced.   These are exciting times, and they will challenge humanity all over the earth.   We have the warmest oceans on Earth in 400 years, and now we are experiencing what very well may be a grand minimum in solar activity.  We are experiencing COOLING from a reduction in the output of the sun which is the Earth’s source of heat…

These conditions drive the weather.  Cooling is greatest over continents and this will be in contrast to the warm, moisture laden air masses moving across the warm oceans perpetually marching in waves across the now diurnally cooling continents.  This should lead to fewer hurricane type storms but more amplified frontal storms. (amplified monsoons as well) This amplified contrast I believe, is what we are now seeing as weather extremes around the world.

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