More Massive Winters Expected for the Northern Hemisphere.

NASA recently reported that Voyager 1 encountered an increase of cosmic rays during May/early june of 5% in one day and 9% in a month. It is on the outer edge of the heliosphere. I wonder if this increase is from Supernova 2011fe (August 2011)? The GCRs don't travel as fast as light so take longer to get here depending on their energy levels. So we might expect even more increased levels of GCR induced cloud formation for a few years. Glad I'm not going to be in the Northern Hemisphere over their next winter. Also volcanic activity seems to be on the rise again from the increased muon activity due to GCR increase.

REPLY: Will watch out for the GCR count, could be interesting

Posted yesterday by NOAA

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/...

I have been reading a lot about the current conditions of the Pacific Ocean and many sources point towards an extremely weak El Nino or possibly even La Nada conditions to prevail for the better part of the winter. I also have read that the QBO is still in it's Easterly Phase which doesn't promote cold air coming from the Arctic but that is expected to flip to the Westerly phase which allows for both the AO and NAO to have negative departures. How much could the MJO factor in to have a role dominating the Northern Hemispheres weather with the present conditions? More particularly...the Sierras received a below average year last winter. Will the MJO be a determining factor this year for creating an average or above average winter in the Sierra's?

REPLY: The Easterly QBO is thought to allow better passage of planetary waves to the poles which disrupts the polar vortex and drives the AO negative. The QBO has little to no effect on the AAO because of the topography of the Southern Hemisphere. With respect to the MJO I think we have to abandon our previous knowledge and watch the stronger effects from the neg PDO and loopier jet streams.

So will California likely to have heavier rain/snowfall this upcoming Winter based on current set up of the SSTA, PDO, and eventual switch to Neg AO/NAO? Will the stronger effects from the neg PDO and loopier jet streams be a major factor?

I've heard from another site that the El Nino is taking a dive towards very neutral condtions. This would be a winter of La Nada if that occured which hasn't happened in quite some time. I honestly think that the way things have been going with such a negative PDO for so long that the El Nino really doesn't stand a big chance of becoming very strong or even having a very significant effect. I think that the real player will be AO which is always a wild card and if that turns negative for a long time that would cause the PNA to go negative which from what I've read has a very direct impact to the strength of winters and snowfall on the West Coast. What would be really interesting is to see how much lower the PDO goes and if by the end of winter it is once again brining La Nada conditions toward La Nina conditions. This I think would really coincide with a lowered solar acitivty...which is what we've been experiencing.  

I agree Geoff,

The AO has a nonlinear relationship with the west coast. So unless it is Strong in its phase, I would not put too much hope on it alone.

H-

It does appear the ingredients for a "moderate" El Nino are weakening.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/...

<p>Another thought, California's weather is not only affected by just El Nino and La Nina ocean patterns, there are many other factors involved. Case in point, during the 2010-2011 winter season California had record rainfall/snowfall for that water year with a strong -AO/NAO; but last year was a different story, we a strong La Nina with a +AO/NAO which brought record dry conditions to the state. The statement above from another individual is correct that the AO and NAO is nonlinear(a type of relationship between two entities, in which change in one entity does not correspond with constant change in the other entity). It appears to me that either the negative or positive effects of the AO/NAO and its relationship to the west coast weather pattern during the winter months depends on the atmospheric patterns strengths. It's impossible to predict their strengths at this time, but based on the current patterns, QBO, the sun's solar activity, and the recent and sudden change in the SSTA in Central Pacific, MJO(Madden Julian Oscillation) what ideas you may have about this upcoming winter on the West Coast and has the AO/NAO been strongly negative or positive in recent days/weeks? I'm thinking we will have a better idea of the coming winter for us perhaps around mid to late November.</p>

I'm also a California resident and I've been looking at models and patterns for several years now. There are so many factors that go into whether or not we have a good winter or not. It's easy to say when there is a very negative AO. It's very very difficult to predict from what I've read when the ENSO is Neutral or very near neutral and when the QBO is in the Westerly Phase. Not to mention the MJO always has effects on weather systems but predicting the position of the MJO is really quite difficult to predict. The PNA is also a big player which is once again hovering around neutral as of now. The fact that it's neutral is problematic because it doesn't really give a great indication as to whether the west coast will be wet or dry. We would like to see it negative but as of now that's up to anyone's guess. I think the main items to watch this winter is both the ENSO and the AO. Hopefully the AO goes negative and if the ENSO starts to coincide at all with the PDO we would be in for another La Nina.  

There is a cold snap in my home country of Poland and across Eurasia.  In BIalystok Poland is 15 degrees fahrenheit. In lodz 16 degrees fahreneit and in capital of Warsaw 19 degrees fahrenheit.  Poland is a normally cold climate, but 15 degrees is cold for October.  Snow has already fallen in most of the country. It is my experience in recent years when Poland and Russia get cold waves this is pre cursor for North America. 

Yes this storm is very interesting. I wonder if it is really bigger than the hurricane in November 1804? That one hit eastern US and sank 244 ships. Or how about the hurricane in December 1805? This seems to have engulfed the whole country and caused enormous damage. 

I'll bet the big reinsurers are nervous. I understand that the early estimates of cost are around $10b but I suspect that the final figure will be very much higher.

Yes I was going to ask you about the AO. It certainly seems to have gone strongly negative already although there are predictions for it to return to positive territory in November.

I was also reading that the snow pack in Eastern Russia is particularly impressive already. This could suggest a massively cold winter.

Now could the AO turn negative again at some point? Is the wet spell we are currently experiencing be temporary and will eventually get back into dry pattern that could lead to another dismal water year for the west coast unless the AO turns back to negative? The latest long range outlook seems to point us to a wetter/snowy pattern thru Thanksgiving into early December.

REPLY: This seems to be the recently observed pattern, but we must also take into consideration other factors like ENSO. I am thinking we are more likely to see a greater percentage of neg AO this NH winter, time will tell.

The jet stream forecast for late November is showing a pool of cold air surging south from the Arctic pole to central and eastern Europe. This seems to be a regular pattern when the AO is in positive mode during low solar output and a neg PDO. The USA & UK are mainly spared in these conditions but the chance of future neg AO events are high which will reverse the current situation.

Back in the Pacific the SOI has been consistantly positive the past week which shows signs of the Walker Pump encouraging La Nina type conditions.

The current EUV graph is maintaining the trend since July. The choppy trend in the last 6 months is most likely associated with the flat sunspot record over the same period. Polar vortex breakup should be encouraged with the expected ozone changes in the upper stratosphere.

The earlier GSF jet stream prediction looks to be on target with perhaps more emphasis on the UK. The sudden drop in the AO could be a factor.

The AO is now deeply negative . We in the UK are in for a cold spell ! 

The AO has not yet turned positive which means the UK is in for a prolonged cold spell. It is only late autumn not winter yet, it might be a long cold winter to come! 

Yes it is fascinating. Also the Arctic Oscillation is still strongly negative and forecast to stay negative until Christmas (and beyond?) This suggests that there will be white Christmasses in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere and quite possibly a few frozen rivers in Europe and the UK. I wonder how much will then be reported in the Australian press?

Also isn't it fascinating the Canada, Russia and Japan pulled out of Kyoto 2. I wonder if many of the residents of those countries now believe in global warming?

The sunspot numbers are for this month about one third of the level that one would associate with a cycle maximum.

The AO is still negative and winter is just about to begin.

 For us in the UK the winter looks as if it might rival the winters of 1946/1947 and 1961/1962 in both snow and cold.

The NH climate is at a very sensitive point. Too much albedo could set into motion a feedback loop. The more it snows the colder it gets and the longer it remains cold; depending on how much snow accumulates (30 feet inthe mountains or so). The other Jonah on the boat (you know its there you don't know where) is dust or particulates in the air caused by vulcanism. We are right at that point in our NH year when albedo matters. So do we have 10, 15, 20, or 30 meters in the mountains yet? (are we there yet?) Is it enough to remain through the NH summer?

It is a big drop for the LSC. The F10.7 is also going to shop a big drop to 105 (according to my calcs), which suggests that the average EUV and magnetic strength figures for the month will have a similar drop.

I have been interested in the NH jet streams they seem to have been pretty well locked for a while with the big swoop up from the south in the Eastern Atlantic protecting the UK and Western Europe from the extreme cold being experienced elsewhere. The current AO predictions suggest that it will soon return to positive territory for a week or so before going negative again. I wonder whether that will change the current jet stream configuration and if so would this then cause the UK and Western Europe to finally cop it? This will be interesting. It is worth noting that the UK met office's 14 day forecasts for London suggest it will get pretty chilly from Saturday 12 by which time the AO should be back in negative territory. Hmmm! This GM is going to teach us a lot about extreme weather!

So far this winter in u.s. is very cold though not like 2 winters ago but colder than last winter which makes sense because last year we had all those m and x class flares. I think last winter was the peak and now every winter will get progressively cooler as we go to minimum. If last year and this year's winters are the kind we have during the maximum I don't want to know what winters during the minimum will be like. -10F in NYC. Below freezing temps as far south as Miami. Single digits in Orlando. I don't think the world is ready for it yet especially since everyone has been brainwashed to think global warming is occurring. I would expect and start preparing for riots,civil unrest, and economic collapse to set in when the minimum sets in. Be ready to protect your home family and feul as looters freezing to death will take anything they can burn to keep warm

I am concerned about food production as world-wide grain stocks are gradually trending lower. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation is concerned. Given that there is a very high probability of one or more very large volcanic eruptions during this grand minimum there are awful consequences if, as a consequence, the world runs out of basic cerals. Already India appears to be stockpiling and I expect other countries will follow suit. I expressed these concerns in my submission to the Australian Senate Environment Committee's inquiry into Australia's preparedness for extreme weather events. See

http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate_Committee... Submission number 43. 

I agree about the name coined by the astrophysics community. However I was thankful that it has a name as it provided some legitimacy to the arguments I used in the submission. While ever the new grand minimum remained unnamed it made it much harder to argue that mankind needs to respond to the risks that it poses. If its name later changes to Landscheidt that's OK.

If readers want to read the longer nature's risks paper it is at  http://www.actuaries.org/HongKong2012/Papers/WBR9_Walker.pdf

Please note that I am an actuary so the paper was written to help my profession understand the risks posed by a grand minimum.

The EUV average values for this solar cycle are still just 61% of those for the same period in cycle 23. 

Although we know cycle 23 was weaker than cycle 22 I wondered if I could figure out how much weaker it was for EUV emissions. Since F10.7 cm flux has often been used as a proxy for EUV I compared average F10.7 cm flux values for the whole of cycle 23 against cycle 22. The reduction was 11.9%. But since F10.7 cm flux is only used as a proxy for EUV I wondered whether how good a proxy it was. Comparing the average F10.7 cm flux so far for this cycle compared to the same period for cycle 23 showed it was weaker in this cycle only by 20.0% Since the difference is so great between the EUV change and the F10.7 cm flux change I calculated the EUV change between cycle 22 and 23 to allow for this variation between the proxy and the actual figures. The result is that so far for cycle 24 EUV is of the order of 60% below that produced by cycle 22. 

This is an amazing difference. EUV photons predominantly create ozone, which produces heat and UVB photons are the predominant destroyers of ozone.Given that UVB emissions are supposed to  vary by around 10% it is easy to see why the Stratosphere and upper Troposphere have become colder. This in turn would have caused the changes in the Rossby waves.