The previous massive winter forecasts can be found at:
The Worlds oceans as of July 2014 above.
This is the fifth year of predicting the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter with a strong track record for accuracy in place. The first prediction included a statement that the winter temperatures would reach those experienced during the Dalton Minimum which in fact did happen in the UK, and last year I predicted the AO and NAO index would stay largely positive with the UK and Eastern Europe escaping most of the cold. But I did not foresee an almost permanent positioning of the polar vortex over Northern America, which shows that none of us really know the exact outcomes 6 months ahead. We are in a different para dime and can only learn as the effects of the Landscheidt Minimum roll out as we go deeper into the 20-30 year phase of this current Solar Grand Minimum.
The last 4 years have shown a changing jet stream that allows cold polar air to move closer to the equator. My observations suggest the jet stream is influenced by the increase of low pressure systems that force the high level winds to bend around the low pressure systems allowing the movement of cold air. This year over the Australian winter there has been a further increase in the appearance of low pressure systems and at the time of writing we are experiencing a very deep intense low pressure system that is driving 150 kph winds and snow down to sea level in Melbourne and Hobart. My weather station (Melbourne) has been sitting on 6 deg C for most of the day. During June and July we have had a continual stream of low pressure systems in the southern region of Australia which I have not seen during the daily observation of the Weather Map of the past 40 years.
We have already seen how the polar vortex can be broken up via planetary waves that are enhanced most likely from solar induced atmospheric changes where ozone is varying above and below the 45km mark, solar reduction in EUV and FUV being the cause. This also has an effect on the jet stream but I think the atmospheric changes are also influencing the increase in low pressure systems which seems to be building as we go deeper into the Landscheidt Minimum. Also of note is that with the increasing low pressures systems the same applies to the high pressure systems that must balance out the system and also cause the bending of the jet stream.
The coming NH winter will see the QBO in its easterly position which should influence the AO and NAO to remain negative for the majority of the winter. This should see the jet stream affecting the UK and
Eastern Western Europe this time around along with North America. The ENSO position has been interesting with some alarmist groups predicting a super El Nino with associated heat. The PDO right now is temporarily out of its cool phase which should induce El Nino conditions as the area of water above New Guinea cools, but it seems this area is being fed by warmer water traveling up from the Southern Pacific, this could also be a phenomenon experienced during solar grand minimums?
The ENSO position is likely to stay neutral which will make a run of 5 years of La Nina or neutral conditions.
My further prediction for the coming NH winter is an increase in the occurrence and depth of the low pressure systems that will bring an even more massive winter to the NH, I expect many records to be broken this season.
The World Oceans today.
My prediction for solar cycle 24 to match solar cycle 5 (first cycle of the Dalton Minimum) also on track.