question

What modulates our Sun? The majority of science work on the principle that the Sun is self modulating and each solar cycle is a product of a random number generator. There are others that suspect the Sun is modulated by the planets with a special emphasis on Uranus & Neptune. Thanks to Carl Smith who has recently left us we have new knowledge that significantly adds to Jose, Landscheidt & Charvàtovà's work.

Geoff Sharp

The Massive NH Winters Strengthen as the Landscheidt Minimum Deepens.

The previous massive winter forecasts can be found at:

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/189

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/224

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/270

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/311

The Worlds oceans as of July 2014 above.

This is the fifth year of predicting the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter with a strong track record for accuracy in place. The first prediction included a statement that the winter temperatures would reach those experienced during the Dalton Minimum which in fact did happen in the UK, and last year I predicted the AO and NAO index would stay largely positive with the UK and Eastern Europe escaping most of the cold. But I did not foresee an almost permanent positioning of the polar vortex over Northern America, which shows that none of us really know the exact outcomes 6 months ahead. We are in a different para dime and can only learn as the effects of the Landscheidt Minimum roll out as we go deeper into the 20-30 year phase of this current Solar Grand Minimum.

The last 4 years have shown a changing jet stream that allows cold polar air to move closer to the equator. My observations suggest the jet stream is influenced by the increase of low pressure systems that force the high level winds to bend around the low pressure systems allowing the movement of cold air. This year over the Australian winter there has been a further increase in the appearance of low pressure systems and at the time of writing we are experiencing a very deep intense low pressure system that is driving 150 kph winds and snow down to sea level in Melbourne and Hobart. My weather station (Melbourne) has been sitting on 6 deg C for most of the day. During June and July we have had a continual stream of low pressure systems in the southern region of Australia which I have not seen during the daily observation of the Weather Map of the past 40 years.

We have already seen how the polar vortex can be broken up via planetary waves that are enhanced most likely from solar induced atmospheric changes where ozone is varying above and below the 45km mark, solar reduction in EUV and FUV being the cause. This also has an effect on the jet stream but I think the atmospheric changes are also influencing the increase in low pressure systems which seems to be building as we go deeper into the Landscheidt Minimum. Also of note is that with the increasing low pressures systems the same applies to the high pressure systems that must balance out the system and also cause the bending of the jet stream.

 

The coming NH winter will see the QBO in its easterly position which should influence the AO and NAO to remain negative for the majority of the winter. This should see the jet stream affecting the UK and Eastern Western Europe this time around along with North America. The ENSO position has been interesting with some alarmist groups predicting a super El Nino with associated heat. The PDO right now is temporarily out of its cool phase which should induce El Nino conditions as the area of water above New Guinea cools, but it seems this area is being fed by warmer water traveling up from the Southern Pacific, this could also be a phenomenon experienced during solar grand minimums?

The ENSO position is likely to stay neutral which will make a run of 5 years of La Nina or neutral conditions.

My further prediction for the coming NH winter is an increase in the occurrence and depth of the low pressure systems that will bring an even more massive winter to the NH, I expect many records to be broken this season.

 

 

sea surface temperature

The World Oceans today. 

My prediction for solar cycle 24 to match solar cycle 5 (first cycle of the Dalton Minimum) also on track.

 

Comments

Todays 250 hPa

Todays 250 hPa readings...Cold Antarctic air being forced north as the jet stream bends around the intense low over Tasmania and the strong high pressure system in the Australian Bight. This has been a very common occurrence over the past 2 months.

Todays wind map at the surface. Warmer waters in the Southern Pacific being blown over New Guinea.

 

Geoff, I am in so much

Geoff, I am in so much agreement but I might add I think this winter for the N.H. (especially the U.S.A) could be more extreme then the previous N.H. winter which was severe in the United States.

As far as the U.S.A I think the persistent pool of warm water in the N.E. Pacific has been a big factor in promoting polar outbreaks to be directed in much of the Central and Eastern United Sates.  It is promoting ridging in the West and troughing in the Central part of the U.S.A.  Also the warm pool of water in S. Greenland will have to be watched.

 

Now  add to the mix a similar ENSO situation as to last year, but unlike last year the QBO will be negative(easterly)  and solar activity will most likely be much less.  This sets up the potential for extreme blocking episodes this winter for the N.H.

 

I think due to the warm pool of water in the N.E. Pacific like last year the polar vortex for lack of a better term may be visiting the Central U.S.A quite often this coming winter.

 

If high latitude volcanic activity should pick up this wilL only aggravate the situation even more.

 

In summary I am essentially seeing it the way you do. Expect a wild N.H. winter season.

https://weather.gc.ca/saisons

Apologies for the typo...I

Apologies for the typo...I originally stated that the jet stream for the upcoming NH Winter should affect the UK and Eastern Europe...which should have read the UK and Western Europe...article updated.

Pre Season Update: I have not

Pre Season Update: I have not seen the northern hemisphere oceans so cold in the last 6 years and the positive PDO is still influencing the Walker Circulation by channeling warmer water to the northern New Guinea region. It seems unlikely a strong El Nino has a chance of developing. The QBO already seems to be affecting the AO and NAO with both in their negative phases, which should persist over at least the early stages of the NH winter.

Down south in Australia we have been experiencing many unusual low pressure troughs and systems that yesterday saw snow in 3 states and some pretty wild weather on the East Coast. The scene is set for a massive winter in the NH.

Last night I watched the BBC

Last night I watched the BBC doco "Whats Wrong with Our Weather" which deals with the recent massive winters experienced in the NH since 2008. They are onto it partly by laying the blame squarely on the jet stream changes but fail quite badly when looking for a reason for the change. Many theories were presented from global warming causing a lesser differential in heat content between the pole and equator, Sudden Stratospheric Warming events that break up the polar vortex and a fleeting reference to solar changes. The QBO was mentioned as a smaller player.

The global warming argument was very poor leaving several questions unanswered. If the melting Arctic was causing the problem it would have occurred long before 2008 and also conveniently leaves out the Antarctic ice sheet which is the largest on record and yet the SH experiences the same meandering jet stream and associated weather impacts.

Further research on their part would have uncovered the QBO plays a part in the position of the meander ie which country it falls over as the QBO affects where the low pressure systems and blocking highs are positioned, and the answer was starring them in the face on many of their graphics which showed a low pressure system moving down from the pole which creates the loop under the UK, simply put the jet stream path is a product of the pressure cells. The increase in low pressure systems seems to only to have been around since 2008 which makes the recent grand minimum type changes to solar output a very healthy candidate, more research on ozone changes in the Stratosphere would help their cause?

A link to the doco can be found HERE.

They hinted already 3 years

They hinted already 3 years ago about a possible solar impact:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/solar-variability

Wonder how much they really know but aren´t telling us...

This research has been published in Nature Geoscience

http://notrickszone.com/2014/

http://notrickszone.com/2014/10/23/nasas-2011-data-show-blocking-events-vortices-more-frequent-when-co2-was-under-350-ppm-in-1950s/

 

 

Geoff  what is your response to this data that shows blocking events high during a time when solar activity was very high that being the 1940-1960 period. This seems to work against our thinking that low solar activity is correlated to more N.H. blocking. What are your thoughts? Thanks.

My thoughts are the changes

My thoughts are the changes in ozone concentrations at different heights are related to pressure pattern changes which influence the jet stream, I  remember reading that after 1945 atom bombs could have had a large effect on ozone concentrations. Solar is only one aspect of the climate system and I think the ocean cycles play a larger role in regards to climate, with the PDO and AMO being the major players.

The question is what governs the PDO and AMO?

New Research Finds Cloud

New Research Finds Cloud Coverage Driving Modern Global Temperatures, Not Greenhouse Gases

The well documented 'pause' for the global warming trend over the last 15+ years has generated over 50 hypothetical science explanations...the latest cloud coverage analysis appears to be a better explanation.....

 This article located:

 http://www.c3headlines.com/2014/10/new-research-finds-cloud-coverage-driving-modern-global-temperatures-not-greenhouse-gases.html

 

Says that the land temperature record is nearly one half degree higher than the oceans temperatures since 1987 and a good portion of that is due to cloud cover changes not CO2.

Since the monitoring stations are nearly all affected by "urban island effect" it looks to me more than ever that all the supposed global warming comes from these stations, that is except for the stations that have been adjusted to fit the global warming lie.

It is getting harder and harder to believe anything that NASA or NOAA put out.

Jakraig

A link to the free pdf for

A link to the free pdf for the above paper available HERE.

If the cloud data is correct in this paper it will soon become a world headline.

Thanks jakraig

 

UPDATE: Cowboy Willis from WUWT has already chimed in:

I hate this kind of BS. This paper is crap, incapable of replication, with no data, no code, and a pathetic joke passing for references. As Mosher observed, without data and code a “study” is not science in any way, shape or form—it’s just an advertisement for science, and nothing more.

w.

 

The Author (John McLean) has responded:

Willis, you didn’t know whether I’d reply and you simply assumed. You shouldn’t assume. The ISCCP data was the D2 dataset, which is the only practical dataset to use for this kind of study. I thought the conclusions of the IPCC were well enough known that I did not have to cite chapter and verse. Note that when it comes to the IPCC’s estimates of increased energy I do give a precise reference to the section of the report.

I used to like your analyses in the Climate Skeptics Internet discussion group but your bombastic criticisms both of this paper and the hypothesis about solar influences presented by David Evens a few months ago have me wondering. Your over the top criticisms might have people wondering whether you are peeved that you didn’t write the papers yourself. I suggest that in future you tone your criticisms down – don’t abandon them altogether just make sure they are reasonable and not excessive.

John has a website where the ISCCP D2 data is graphed. He also compares the ISCCP data with Australian BOM data which looks robust.

 

The southern jet stream

The southern jet stream still being influenced by strong low pressure cells. Cold air moving from Antarctica with our summer only weeks away. In the north east of the continent the opposite is occurring. The Landscheidt Minimum is deepening with accumulating impacts on the jet stream, The NH winter this year is looking to be big.

The jet stream position

The jet stream position clearly showing how a low pressure system above Florida is dragging the colder Arctic air over NE USA. The AO position has remained mostly neutral over the past 2 months making the prediction of where the low pressure systems sit more difficult, but what ever happens in regard to the AO it remains certain that there will be massive winter events in the NH as long as the Sun remains quiet. New York is bracing itself for one of the largest snow storms (blizzard) in its history.

The UK will probably get its turn in a couple of days, with the predicted jet stream path south of the UK.

Many thanks go to Carl's brother Dave for providing the Domain, Server and Software.