question

What modulates our Sun? The majority of science work on the principle that the Sun is self modulating and each solar cycle is a product of a random number generator. There are others that suspect the Sun is modulated by the planets with a special emphasis on Uranus & Neptune. Thanks to Carl Smith who has recently left us we have new knowledge that significantly adds to Jose, Landscheidt & Charvàtovà's work.

Geoff Sharp

A Massive Winter Heading for the Northern Hemisphere?

My forecast for the 2011/2012 Northern Hemisphere Winter can be found HERE.

PART 1

The winters of the past two years have been noticeably colder. The northern hemisphere in particular has experienced record cold, record snow and a rebuilding of the Arctic sea ice extent. The southern hemisphere this winter has also seen record low temperatures in South America which is resulting in many hundreds of deaths (human and livestock).

There are a number of players involved which can be attributed to this cooling trend and when they come together they are capable of dropping the world's temperatures by a significant amount.

pdoPerhaps the most important player is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which is a hot and cold ocean temperature cycle in the Pacific of about 30 years. The world's temperature trend very closely matches this cycle which has the potential to override solar activity of the day. The last major PDO cooling event was between 1946 and 1976 which experienced the highest solar cycle on record (SC19) followed by a low cycle (SC20). The deepest cold of this era was recorded when both the PDO and low solar activity teamed up, which is right where we are again today with perhaps a greater influence from the solar side with my predicted imminent grand minimum.

Above image courtesy of Don Easterbrook, click on image for link.

New research is suggesting the solar influence on climate/weather is not just about the overall heat output of the Sun which varies very little, but more about the atmospheric effects from extreme ultraviolet radiation (EUV). EUV can vary by as much as 16% over the solar cycle and this last solar minimum has seen the levels a lot lower than the previous solar minimum. EUV does it's thing in the upper atmosphere where it heats the Thermosphere and also creates Ozone, currently NASA is reporting the lowest recorded height of the Thermosphere and is at a loss at explaining all of the contributing factors. Others like Mike Lockwood are linking lower UV rates with changes in the polar jet streams that form a blocking effect on the normally warmer winds that occur in the northern hemisphere winter.

Aside from other ocean oscillations the ENSO pattern has a large short term effect on our climate/weather system. We are just coming out of a rather warm El Nino cycle and current observations are showing the possible impact of a very strong La Nina cooling pattern taking shape.

The La Nina phase is now official with the Australian BOM records showing all the major indicators heading into continued La Nina conditions. Of particular interest is the sub surface temperatures in the Pacific showing a large area 4 deg C under normal.

Another oscillation called the Antarctic  aooOscillation (AAO)  is showing its highest readings since records began in 1979, during the strong 1999 and 2008 La Ninas the AAO was also high.

The cooling phase of the PDO is just beginning and should reduce the strength and frequency of future El Ninos and add extra punch and frequency to upcoming La Ninas.

Joe Bastardi from Accuweather who is an avid follower of this site is also predicting the same cooling trend, he also adds the possible cooling effects that could result from impending volcanic eruptions.

So the stage is set for one of the most interesting natural experiments, nearly all the cool players are in place with the exception of the Atlantic Oscillation (AMO) still not in its cool phase. I predict the extra boost from my predicted solar grand minimum along with the  current oceanic conditions the next northern winter (2010/2011) will experience conditions similar to the Little Ice Age (1250-1850). See graph below showing that prediction proving correct for central England.

                                                                                                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This graph (left)showing the relationship between the SOI (ENSO) and the SAM (AAO). Also shown is the Antarctic ice melt.

Strongly positive AAO signals associated with strong La Nina during 1999 and 2008. The reverse occurring during the strong El Nino years of 1983 and 1998.

 

 

PART 2

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is an atmospheric oscillation resulting from two pressure cells occurring in the Northern Atlantic Ocean and is closely linked with the Arctic Oscillation. During it's positive phase warmer winds are prevalent across the northern hemisphere with an additional blocking effect of the cooler Arctic air mass.

 

The NAO is very closely aligned with the PDO sharing modulation and phasing and together in their negative phase along with a La Nina cycle are potent team members capable of inflicting significant world cooling.

Left: The winter NAO graph aligning with the PDO and sunspot cycle.

The NAO/PDO correlation may not be coincidental. Landscheidt (2001) proposed a close link between solar output and the NAO (fig.6) and Scafetta (2010) indicates a correlation between solar velocity and the PDO. Both cycles look to be in sync with the solar/planet dynamics of our solar system. Landscheidt at the time had no physical mechanism but recent research is pointing toward EUV flux as a very likely climate oscillator candidate. The modulation of these climate effects from EUV being so much greater during grand minima. (SC20 at 1970 being very close to a grand minimum). TSI might just be a very small player.

The NAO is showing signs of continuing negative and is expected to be in full force by December if we follow history. It is reasonable to suggest the same forces were in play with the same timings during the Dalton Minimum. If so I think we can expect a similar weather pattern as of that era, especially if Katla decides to erupt.

The big test is in place...will the so called "greenhouse effect" brought about by man made CO2 have any bearing on the upcoming northern hemisphere winter?

This article will be updated with further information as the season progresses.

 

PART 3.

December 16 2010: All indicators forecast last July are on track. The La Nina is shaping up to be one of the deepest on record, the PDO continues its negative phase, and the AO is in strong negative territory with NOAA predicting a further strong decline. The NAO is also strongly negative and the predicted masses of south flowing polar air is already occurring. This has translated to low northern hemisphere temperatures not seen since the Little Ice Age. The NAO will determine the rest of winter which I think will remain negative, but there is also a chance that blocking highs will remain even if the NAO reverses as we have seen in the southern hemisphere recently.

 

Also as predicted the Sun continues its slumber, current sunspot measurements are showing cycle 24 to be on par with the first cycle of the Dalton minimum. Other measurements on a more recent timescale show the solar F10.7 flux output dramatically lower than cycle 20 (weak cycle) which experienced our most recent severe cold period during the 70's.

I think the Landscheidt Minimum is already upon us, it's early days but the magic is building.

 

This updating pressure gradient animation is maintained by NOAA and will show the nature of the AO/NAO along with any blocking high pressure zones, watch for the high pressure region over Greenland.

Below is a long term NAO graph which is also auto updating. The current NAO conditions are severely negative which should persist, the warming crowd have been saying that increased Co2 in our atmosphere will influence the NAO to remain positive?

Below is the AO index updated daily. A great resource for northern hemisphere winter conditions. When the AO dips the massive winter hits.

PART 4.

February 05 2011: World conditions continue to amaze, the still very strong La Nina creating one of the biggest cyclones to hit Australia which is now transferring into massive rains in the south. I had predicted our dams would be full by the end of our summer but had not thought the rain would be this heavy. Also this week has seen monster snow storms and cold throughout most of the USA. The northern jet stream has favored a colder USA and has protected the UK from the southern arctic air flow, but the AO has turned positive with the AAO trending more negative (might be short term) so there may be a change soon..this will be interesting to watch. Trying to predict which part of the northern hemisphere will be affected by the jet stream is difficult over the longer term.

Why was the highly positive AAO occurring at the same time as the highly negative AO? The position of both these indexes has been pivotal in the strength of the La Nina and the shape of the northern jet stream. Stratosphere temps plus ozone along with the polar vortex seem to play a large role in controlling the state of atmospheric oscillations which coincides with low EUV. I have plotted below the monthly AO/AAO index in an attempt to flush out some trends. On the whole the two patterns follow each other in their overall trends but the baseline can vary for each index. The trends happening now and back around 1979 are interesting showing a larger divergence between the indexes during low EUV. The December values being more relevant for the northern hemisphere winter.


Click on graph for full size.

Update: There may be an answer as to why low EUV only affects one hemisphere, I came across a paper that has some answers to the conundrum. Its a very big informative read by Baldwin et al, but the main thrust is that the QBO and planetary waves control the NH polar vortex and have very little influence on the SH vortex. Of interest the authors speculate that there is a solar component in the QBO as well as a strong possibility that EUV could modulate the NH planetary waves, this could explain the divergence on my graph. The planetary waves seem to be the major driver in breaking up the NH vortex which in turn influences the AO. I couldn’t find any secular changes in stratospheric temps or ozone in the last 2 decades that would affect the NH polar vortex. A different story for the SH vortex though that seems to be in a different league.

Also of interest was if the planetary wave is strong enough it does not matter what phase the QBO was in, it still affected the NH vortex.

Below is a reconstructed satellite view taken February 3rd 2011 showing the Little Ice Age conditions. Only the UK and western Europe have been spared (the jet stream bends can favor some over short periods) Dailymail story HERE.


Comments

This map is

This map is better:

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

And recent news confirm it: A cold front over Washington ( see News from different sources)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/25/AR201007...

We are already in the Landscheidt minimum.

Landscheidt Minimum

Agree...we are in the early stages. It will be the biggest news story of the next decade.

finally i have been waiting

finally

i have been waiting for confirmation on this matter for three years

we are long overdue for a iceage, but dont worry, this will be a small one

peace, pheniks

 

 

Hidden Gem

There is a presentation linked to in this article that could reveal some answers to the long sort after quest for the solar/climate link. Its at http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2010ScienceMeeting/doc/Session3/3.06_Woods_EUV_Min.pdf and is written by Tom Woods from the University of Colorado. It deals with the EUV measures taken from the SEM experiment aboard SOHO.

The striking conclusion is that solar EUV base level is 15% less at the SC23/SC24 min compared with the previous minimum. This divergence is much larger in contrast to the TSI and F10.7 Flux values. The Thermosphere measurements are backing up the EUV measurements so some confidence is expected. The lower the solar cycle the lower the baseline of the EUV record which in turn modulates the atmospheric oscillations.

EUV does not have a base solar floor which can easily explain the fluctuations in the temperature record and with more measurements will probably line up with the solar proxy isotope base fluctuations.

Those claiming the TSI record has a flat baseline floor need look no further than the EUV record.

The PDO will be an

pdo graph

The PDO will be an interesting graph to watch...The value has just gone neg, June -.22

July dropping substantially to -1.05

Geoff -- Question!

With you stating that this winter could feel the effects of the likes of the Little Ice age...what are your preliminary thoughts on next winter over the United States, particulary over the northern/central Plains.

USA Winter Forecast.

I must stress I am not a meteorology expert, but normally during times of La Nina the west coast is the coldest, central cool and the east coast warmer. This year the North Atlantic Oscillation is hinting at a negative phase and if so will allow cold Arctic air mass to flow south, this will impact the northern central plains. Joe Bastardi is releasing his winter forecast on Tuesday, lets see if he agrees?

QBO

Have heard a few rumors that QBO was going positive..is this true and how will this effect the winter coming up

QBO & AO

I don't think these two phases are necessarily linked, the QBO has much longer phases than the AO which can fluctuate monthly. The QBO being a stratospheric oscillation will be influenced by UV changes that are occurring now that we have not seen before, so predictions might be hard. The AO is the important element that allows cold air to move south but as can be seen from my linked graph a positive phase now is probably good leaving time for a negative changeover by Dec. If this doesn't happen a negative NAO will still allow cold air to flow south. My gut feel is that the oscillations will align by winter with even the possibility of AMO getting closer to negative, low solar UV being the influencing factor.

A strongly positive QBO may reduce the La Nina strength, but that is not happening yet.

Some further reading HERE

A Massive Winter Heading for the Northern Hemisphere?

 

 

Solar EUV lines are due to radioisotopes produced by Uranium fission, according to the following peer reviewed paper. Radioisotopes cause a new class of room temperature atomic spectra of solids (radioisotopes and X-ray sources) by a previously unknown phenomenon.  X-ray sources can be radioisotopes that emit predominantly characteristic X-rays.  

M.A. Padmanabha Rao, 

UV dominant optical emission newly detected from radioisotopes and XRF sources, 

Brazilian Journal of Physics, Vol.40, no.1, March 2010.

http://www.sbfisica.org.br/bjp/files/v40_38.pdf

ABSTRACT

The current paper reports first and definite experimental evidence for gamma-, X-, or beta radiation causing UV dominant optical radiation from (1) radiochemicals such as 131-I; (2) XRF sources such as Rb XRF source present as salts; and (3) metal sources such as 57-Co, and Cu XRF sources. Due to low quantum yield a need arose to develop two techniques with narrow band optical filters, and sheet polarizers that helped in the successful detection of optical radiation. The metal 57-Co spectrum observed at room temperature hinted that it could be optical emission from excited 57-Co atoms by a previously unknown phenomenon. In order to explain UV emission, it was predicted that some eV energies higher than that of UV, termed temporarily as Bharat radiation are generated within the excited atom, while gamma-, X-, and beta passes through core-Coulomb field. In turn, the Bharat energy internally produced within the excited atom causes UV dominant high-energy spectrum by valence excitation. As excited atoms become free from surrounding unexcited atoms by valence excitation, room temperature atomic spectra of solid radioisotopes and XRF sources became a possibility. It implies existence of temporary atomic state of solids. The experimental evidence that gamma-, X-, and beta radiations causing UV dominant optical emission from within excited atoms of radioisotopes suggests the possibility for solar gamma-, X-, and ß radiations causing EUV by the atomic phenomenon described here.

M.A. Padmanabha Rao, PhD

Former Professor of Medical Physics, New Delhi, India

raomap@yahoo.com 

 

M.A.Padmanabha Rao

There is some very

There is some very interesting reading on low solar activity and "blocked" jet streams. They are news articles however, but there is a very good correlation between low solar activity and a disorganized jet stream. The first is from the BBC which admits to possible solar-terrestrial links in climate: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8615789.stm The past two winters have been unusually snowy and cold, particularly last winter. Here is another very interesting article which links the exceptional heatwave in Russia and exceptional monsoon in Pakistan to a "blocked" jet stream, which they say could indeed be caused by recent low solar activity: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1302225/Blocked-jetstream-blame-freak-weather-Russia-Pakistan.html

A similar such event seems to have occurred in the Sporer Minimum in 1540, when Europe experienced a 7-month long heatwave. Perhaps that was caused by a disordered/blocked jet stream due to low solar activity during the Sporer Minimum? There have been some websites which say that a warmer world is a more climatically stable world, and vice versa for a colder world. When there is high solar activity, the Earth's atmospheric circulation is more mobile and generally stable due to more UV, and becomes disrupted during times of low UV and low solar activity. It also seems that high solar activity/UV causes the jet streams to move slightly towards the poles and vice versa when in low solar activity/UV. This would perhaps explain an overall warmer/cooler world, with these shifts in weather patterns towards the poles/equator?

Recently here in Britain it has been an unusually cold and snowy late November, with the lowest night-time minima for 25 years in places. Apparently the jet stream is doing an "s" bend just to the west of Europe, and is stuck there, dragging cold air down into Western Europe. They also say it could last for much longer. I think winter has set in early for us! Here is the link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11855579 

I think this highlights the importance of solar activity's and particularly UV's effect on our climate system.

Yes, its all happening right

Yes, its all happening right now. The jet stream phenomena is gaining traction all over the world, low EUV being a very possible cause. The polar regions experience different atmospheric pressures during low solar activity that bend very cold air away towards normally warmer regions. The NAO and AAO are in perfect position along with the PDO and a large La Nina, the cards are stacked.

Joe B predicts the Arctic oscillations will reverse later in the NH winter which might tend to produce a warmer winter for the UK and the Eastern USA, I am not so sure.

The NH already in a LIA? The

The NH already in a LIA?

The blogosphere is alive with reports of record low temperatures and high snowfall across the northern hemisphere. November temperature records similar to those experienced during the Dalton minimum are already occurring with the current outlook for December looking very bleak. Blocking highs are being experienced in both hemispheres with the associated jet stream changes. The NAO remains strongly negative with the PDO values continuing to drop along with the very strong La Nina looking to continue.

Solar output remains extremely low with 2010 most likely not seeing the monthly F10.7 flux values rise much above the low 80's. We are now two years into solar cycle 24. A Solar Grand Minimum is very much on the cards.

Joe Bastardi is expecting a warmer outlook in the coming months for Britain and the east coast of USA. But he suggests Russia and central Europe will still experience a brutal winter. His logic is based on a reversing NAO pattern which he is expecting to turn positive shortly. I am expecting the low solar EUV output to continue to put negative pressure on the NAO thereby ensuring a massive global northern winter....It will be interesting to watch.

Anyone that is following the

Anyone that is following the Unisys global SST record will acknowledge that the current oceanic conditions are trending to the very cool. But there are several warm patches as a result of the recent El Nino that will continue to drive evaporation rates. The La Nina will also allow more solar input via reduced cloud cover over the tropics, but the big factor is the cold air flowing from the poles that backs up the process creating a massive northern winter. ie left over heat converted to heavy snow and low temps.

There will always be left over heat but it will be converted in times like these. When solar output is low the negative feed backs are far more effective.

The cold air is a function of reduced solar output that controls the negative atmospheric teleconnections that we have seen during other cold spells. Its not about solar TSI, but more about how low solar magnetic/EUV output affects our atmospheric oscillations.

The ENSO pattern along with the neg PDO will continue to drive our climate, but the trend will be downward for the next 2 decades.

The Arctic pressure is

The Arctic pressure is starting to build some strength as the AO trends towards the bottom again similar to last xmas. The stratosphere above the arctic pole has shifted back to a sudden warm phase, which will weaken the polar vortex. The next week will be massive over the northern hemisphere.

Back home in the southern hemisphere we have endured massive floods with big losses of life and unprecedented hardship, more is still in the pipeline that will rock our country. The solar influence on global weather is forcing its hand, we will learn a lot in the coming years.

Geoff, I think you're right.

Geoff,

I think you're right. The pattern is looking very similar to last year's pattern which was not supposed to happen according to conventional wisdom. The gate is now open for arctic air to flood in and spread coast to coast in the N.H. We just had 8 inches of snow in southern TN.  The same pattern has developed that brought brutal cold to Europe and North America during the last two observable grande minimas. Here we are again. This is no coincidence.

I'm sorry to see the devistation from flooding happening to our good friends in Australia. It is hard to watch. Our prayers go out for these folks.

Many thanks go to Carl's brother Dave for providing the Domain, Server and Software.