question

What modulates our Sun? The majority of science work on the principle that the Sun is self modulating and each solar cycle is a product of a random number generator. There are others that suspect the Sun is modulated by the planets with a special emphasis on Uranus & Neptune. Thanks to Carl Smith who has recently left us we have new knowledge that significantly adds to Jose, Landscheidt & Charvàtovà's work.

Geoff Sharp

Has SILSO Sold Out The International Sunspot Record?

Has the SILSO sold out the sunspot record? In breaking news there are 4 papers published this year that pose serious questions to the Svalgaard/Clette review of the international sunspot number that ended up changing the sunspot record last July. If the challenges are withheld it would seem the most important sunspot record of 400 years has been allowed to be manipulated to reflect the views of just two people, who could be seriously argued as having their own agenda rather than basing the outcome on rigorous science. The Svalgaard/Clette revised Group Sunspot Number has also been challenged. It will be interesting if this topic comes up on WUWT?

Paper 1

Paper 2

Paper 3

Paper 4

Another paper in print could also challenge the SILSO revision:

Friedli,T.K. 2016,“The construction of the Wolf Series from 1749 to 1980”, SolarPhys.,

Comments

More than one year on from

More than one year on from the SILSO SSN reconstruction it is timely to review the methodology that few have questioned. The yellow line shows the conversion factor which to my mind is way short when comparing old cycles with SC24. A 20% reduction at a minimum is required to compensate for the Waldmeier Factor alone, but yet we see only 12-15% reduction applied?

SILSO

Click on the image for a larger view

It looks like a few more

It looks like a few more researchers are starting to come around.  I watched an interview with Professore Valentina Zharkova today.  It was interesting in that she said a reason for the magnetic changes in the sun were likely caused by the magnetic fulcuations being either in or out of phase with each other.  When out of phase or when when the amplitude in both hemispheres are out of phase with each other they in effect cancel each other out reducing the total magnetic output.  I have greatly oversimplified what she has said but you can easily find her interview on YouTube.

As far as I can tell from what I have read she does not try to explain the reasons for the phase fluctuations in the two hemispheres, only that they happen.  She has apparently introduced her theories in the past but has not been well received, she is at least being heard now.  She is predicting a Maunder type minimum starting in about 7 years that will last until 2053, basically the better part of at least two Complete Solar Cycles.

I am wondering if when the world finally acknowledges that cooling is real if they will also acknowledge that warming was a hoax?  I am wondering if the liars in the national research organizations and faux researchers like Al Gore will be exposed or if it will just quietly disappear.

Because temperature data has been adjusted upward the "Decline" will be that much more dramatic.  I hope I live to see some embarassed researchers and Universities.

Jakraig

Zharkova might be seeing the

Zharkova might be seeing the physical aspects of a disrupted Dynamo but I am unsure if her method of prediction is valid. I see she has some people questioning her method as it doesn't hind cast the past too well. My method suggests the current solar grand minimum will be shorter than the Dalton and not as deep as the Maunder, SC25 will be our best guide to see who is right. 

When I saw the Watts article

When I saw the Watts article I saw your work and graphs (so to speak). Solar acceleration/deceleration seems to me to be more of a result rather than a cause, whereas angular momentum provides cause.  I do hope you get the recognition you deserve. 

Now that the solar cycle is phasing to minimum, after a historically weak cycle max., I expect to see a continuation in the expansion of severe winters globally.  We have the warmest oceans in centuries and now the decline in total solar output will allow rapid cooling of the continents as waves of moisture continue to clash from maritime sources.

I for one appreciate your vigilance and continued work.  Thanks!!!

 

Over at Spaceweather.com

Over at Spaceweather.com today is shown todays sun with a sunspot.  The sunspot number is 2619.

Here is a link to the picture:

http://spaceweather.com/images2016/20dec16/hmi1898.gif?PHPSESSID=23jcues...

To me this "Sunspot" looks like a slightly darkened granule.  Is there a limit to what constitutes a true sunspot?  I try to look at the sunspot count every day, when they look like this one with the number of 2619 it makes me wonder how many sunspots we have really had.  Can we even measure the magnetic activity of such a small disturbance?

I wish I were a researcher and knew enough that I didn't have to ask stupid questions but calling such a dot as this a sunspot makes it hard to compare even with the various formulae for conversion to older sunspot numbers.

REPLY: Wolf had the right idea when he started the sunspot counting method. His method made the count more uniform and with his threshold he introduced an easy filter. Its a pity those that followed him could not leave it alone.

Jakraig

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