August News 2012

August Update:  This month saw a reduction in all activity from July. The month was mixed with a lively start but fading as the month wore on. The southern hemisphere came back to sharing about 50% of the monthly count. The F10.7 values took a larger drop overall perhaps making up for the steep rise during July. F10.7 flux values are currently not aligning with the sunspot record. The LSC was measured at 37.1, SIDC 63.1, NOAA unadjusted at 85.8 (prov). The SIDC for the 17th straight month over counting compared with NOAA with the gap increasing this month. August experienced a much higher level of speck activity with the speck ratio going under 0.6 again. The SIDC/NOAA and LSC/SIDC comparison graph showing greater difference and continues to rise over SC24.

A copy of the Layman's spreadsheet can be found HERE.

SC24 is still on track to matching SC5.

Three regions counted with overall area increasing a moderate amount. Some new activity at month end but behind the current activity the future looks bleak. August coming in at 37.1 monthly mean which is a reasonable drop from last month. A full update once the SIDC figures are in.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
40	Manual	-	37.1

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1553 3794 (3888) 62% (70%) 1554 1205 (1729) 65% (72%) 1560 5202 64% F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 130.2 (120.6) 5330 (4010) 2012/08/31 08:00

Two regions counted with overall area increasing. Region 1555 has broken up but region 1554 has returned from the dead. Region 1553 has developed in a larger group along with several other speck regions forming. Today will see a very high speck ratio. August values will be somewhat lower than July.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
21	Manual	-	37

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1553 3888 (2908) 70% (67%) 1554 1729 72% F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 120.6 (113.4) 4010 (2208) 2012/08/30 08:00

Two regions counted with overall area decreasing. The monthly average dropping again by another point and with two days to go the average could drop further, although there is new activity on the live SDO image viewed from the left panel.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
22	Locarno	37	37

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1553 2908 (2743) 67% (61%) 1555 1535 (2470) 61% (55%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 113.4 (113.7) 2208 (2466) 2012/08/29 08:00

Two regions counted with overall area decreasing. The monthly average has taken another point drop with another likely tomorrow, activity continues to look feeble. The Locarno record showing the huge difference in values which is attributed to the very high speck ratio.

Yesterday there was an error in the SIDC daily value which has been corrected.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
24	Locarno	58	38

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1553 2743 (2630) 61% (61%) 1555 2470 (2760) 55% (55%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 113.7 (115.6) 2466 (2850) 2012/08/28 08:00

Three regions counted with overall area remaining static. This month will be a reduction on last month with the monthly average still holding under 40.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
34	Locarno	48	39

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1553 2630 (2498) 61% (60%) 1554 1343 (2158) 65% (70%) 1555 2760 (1938) 55% (59%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 115.6 (108.1) 2850 (2819) 2012/08/27 08:00

Three regions counted today with an increase in overall area. The monthly average is still holding under 40.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
42	Manual	-	39

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1553 2498 (2107) 60% (66%) 1554 2158 (2942) 70% (63%) 1555 1938 59% F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 108.1 (106.4) 2819 (2670) 2012/08/26 08:00

Three weak regions counted today with an increase in overall area. Region 1548 was yesterday incorrectly labelled and should have been new region 1554. F10.7 flux values now over 100 after being sub 100 for a week.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
32	Manual	-	39

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1552 510 (567) 60% (59%) 1553 2107 (1322) 66% (56%) 1554 2942 (1427) 63% (75%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 106.4 (98.8) 2760 (1651) 2012/08/25 08:00

Three weak regions counted today with an increase in overall area. Region 1548 coming back from the dead which is unusual. With less than 1 week to go this month could go either way but at present is looking weak.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
30	Manual	-	39

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1552 567 (538) 59% (55%) 1553 1322 (724) 56% (56%) 1554 1427 75% F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 98.8 (96.9) 1651 (1035) 2012/08/24 08:00

Three weak regions counted today with an increase in overall area. Region 1548 fails the 24 hr rule and is not counted, yesterdays figures have been updated. Overall activity is very weak with weak unipolar regions dominating, the F10.7 values continue to look very weak which if continued will show a large drop this month even after a strong start. This month has been very different to the previous month.

The monthly average is now sub 40.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
23	Locarno	52	39

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1546 650 (660) 70% (56%) 1552 538 (376) 55% (57%) New 724 56% F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 96.9 (96.4) 1035 (929) 2012/08/23 08:00

hree weak regions counted today with a decrease in overall area. Two new regions now making the grade but a downgrade in overall strength with region 1547 fading fast after yesterdays growth.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
16	manual	-	40

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1546 660 (920) 56% (56%) 1548*** 409 79% 1552 376 57% F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 96.4 (98.5) 929 (1122) 2012/08/22 08:00

One region counted today with a rise in overall area as the SDO images return to normal. Previous days have now been updated. The LSC monthly average is heading down quickly and it is difficult to predict what future action is coming via Stereo Behind.... but perhaps not all that strong?

The region in the central north (1547) is showing some signs of growth.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
8	Locarno	53	41

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1546 920 (1018) 56% (56%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 98.5 (98.5) 1122 (849) 2012/08/21 08:00

 The SDO link is still out with the official website stating air conditioning problems are at the root of the problem and should be fixed by Monday. Looking at the GONG images activity has been very weak with 1-2 spot groups counting. Hopefully once the SDO site returns the missing images will be available.

Update: The SDO link is back up but some 08:00 UTC images are missing. The nearest time available image has been used for the LSC update.

One region counted today and another reduction in overall area is recorded. Today showing the huge difference in counting methods when the speck ratio is high as Locarno counts 6 regions. The F10.7 flux values have been sub 100 for several days once again mirroring the picture set by the LSC.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
8	Locarno	48	43

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1546 1018 (1092) 56% (51%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 98.5 (99.4) 849 (880) 2012/08/20 06:45

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One region counted today with overall area decreasing. Some new speck activity not making the cut.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
8	Manual	-	45

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1546 1092 (779) 51% (54%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 99.4 (97.5) 880 (1672) 2012/08/19 20:45

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The SDO Stanford link is down tonight but two regions will be most likely counted today judging on other images and the Locarno drawing, updates will follow when the server resurfaces. The F10.7 flux has now plunged well below the 100 marker. Update, SDO images returning but some 08:00 UTC images missing.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
18	Locarno	27	47

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1543 2880 (4549) 63% (64%) 1546 779 (459) 54% (51%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 97.5 (100.8) 1672 (2291) 2012/08/18 06:00

Two regions counted today with overall area decreasing. The F10.7 flux getting close to 100 as the next wave of activity showing on Stereo Behind looms, but perhaps does not look too strong?

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
20	Locarno	30	49

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1543 4549 (6049) 64% (71%) 1546 459 51% F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 100.8 (103.2) 2291 (3024) 2012/08/17 08:00

One region counted today with overall area decreasing. A small region appearing in the north that will probably count tomorrow.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
10	Manual	-	50

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1543 6049 (7258) 71% (73%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 103.2 (108.5) 3024 (3766) 2012/08/16 08:00

One region counted today with overall area decreasing. The monthly average taking a dive which will be commonplace for the next few days. There looks to be some activity coming in about a week barring any new eruptions that might see the F10.7 flux dip below 100 again.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
11	Locarno	19	53

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1543 7258 (7321) 73% (73%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 108.5 (110.9) 3766 (3914) 2012/08/15 08:00

Two regions counted today with overall area within 1 pixel of yesterday. Region 1542 just making the cut today and likely to miss out tomorrow. So how is SC24 comparing with past cycles. Which past cycle since around 1700 is the closest so far to SC24? When doing this comparison it is important to compare the counting methods of the day which is something lost to most when discussing this topic. When done correctly SC24 is closest to SC5, which was the first cycle of the Dalton grand minimum.

The chances of a spotless day in the next week are increasing.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
19	Locarno	26	56

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1542 345 (664) 82% (64%) 1543 7321 (6542) 73% (70%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 110.9 (115.3) 3914 (3712) 2012/08/14 08:00

Two regions counted today with a decrease in overall area and another region falling below the threshold. The F10.7 flux is falling again quickly with the prospect of nothing much happening on the horizon.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
25	Locarno	49	59

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1542 664 (1229) 64% (59%) 1543 6542 (5744) 70% (72%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 115.3 (123.0) 3712 (3772) 2012/08/13 08:00

Three regions counted today with a decrease in overall area and another region falling below the threshold, but the speck ratio rising fast. The darkness ratio is refusing to show any decine which pours more cold water on the L&P theory.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
45	Locarno	79	62

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1542 1229 (1980) 59% (58%) 1543 5744 (5283) 72% (69%) 1544 474 (879) 71% (73%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 123.0 (128.8) 3772 (4513) 2012/08/12 08:00

Four regions counted today with a decrease in overall area and another region falling below the threshold. Region 1540 looks to be heading in the same direction. The monthly average declining with further drops expected.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
47	Locarno	78	63

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1540 390 (796) 64% (56%) 1542 1980 (2365) 58% (64%) 1543 5283 (4726) 69% (62%) 1544 897 (1847) 73% (64%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 128.8 (134.8) 4513 (4906) 2012/08/11 08:00

Five regions counted today with a decrease in overall area and two regions falling below the threshold. The peak of the month may be behind us.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
66	Locarno	95	65

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1538 1086 (2098) 57% (52%) 1540 796 (1041) 56% (61%) 1542 2365 (2380) 64% (56%) 1543 4726 (3511) 62% (65%) 1544 1847 (1994) 64% (73%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 134.8 (137.0) 4906 (5371) 2012/08/10 08:00

Seven regions counted today with an increase in overall area. Some renewed activity that is pushing the monthly average higher with a new region appearing today. The F10.7 flux values perhaps telling the real story.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
90	Locarno	112	65

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1535 829 (1320) 53% (59%) 1537 556 (551) 53% (61%) 1538 2098 (2763) 52% (55%) 1540 1041 (1782) 61% (61%) 1542 2380 (2025) 56% (62%) 1543 3511 (2151) 65% (65%) New 1994 73% F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 137.0 (132.1) 5371 (4472) 2012/08/09 08:00

Six regions counted today with a small increase in overall area. Plenty of regions counting, but overall strength remains weak. This month so far has been quite different to July.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
73	Locarno	79	61

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1535 1320 (1903) 59% (65%) 1537 551 (843) 61% (56%) 1538 2763 (2907) 55% (54%) 1540 1782 (2074) 61% (62%) 1542 2025(728) 62% (57%) 1543 2151 (1028) 65% (54%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 132.1 (137.9) 4472 (4067) 2012/08/08 08:00

Six regions counted today with a small increase in overall area but a decrease in darkness. The what looks like the last 2 regions of the current set now appearing with very little behind them at present. No drawings today.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
61	Manual	-	60

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1535 1903 (2095) 65% (74%) 1537 843 (1024) 56% (54%) 1538 2907 (3527) 54% (56%) 1540 2074 (1529) 62% (62%) 1542 728 57% New 1028 54% F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 137.9 (137.9) 4067 (4322) 2012/08/07 08:00

Five regions counted today with a decrease in overall area. After tomorrow we should see a bigger decline in overall activity.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
47	Locarno	61	60

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1532 1531 (3066) 74% (73%) 1535 2095 (2251) 74% (70%) 1537 1024 (1027) 54% (58%) 1538 3527 (4010) 56% (57%) 1540 1529 (1632) 62% (65%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 137.9 (142.7) 4322 (5600) 2012/08/06 08:00

Five regions counted today with a decrease in overall area. A mix of unipolar type regions with lots of specks today as solar activity continues to weaken. Future activity is looking weak at this stage.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
54	Locarno	85	62

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1532 3066 (4501) 73% (78%) 1535 2251 (2376) 70% (64%) 1537 1027 (1073) 58% (64%) 1538 4010 (3935) 57% (68%) 1540 1632 (1031) 65% (58%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 142.7 (143.8) 5600 (6960) 2012/08/05 08:00

Six regions counted today with a decrease in overall area. Some new activity but generally everything on the decline. The monthly average is dropping steadily.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
57	Locarno	101	64

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1530 1083 (1946) 58% (65%) 1532 4501 (5812) 78% (74%) 1535 2376 (2498) 64% (68%) 1537 1073 (839) 64% (55%) 1538 3935 (3836) 68% (63%) 1540 1031 58% F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 143.8 (138.6) 6960 (7790) 2012/08/04 08:00

Five regions counted today with a decrease in overall area. Last month there was little divergence between the LSC and SIDC/NOAA resulting from a low speck ratio, today that situation reversed dramatically. Locarno going mad with specks and group splitting which is displayed clearly in today's figures. The small peak of activity is over most likely, with a downward trend expected.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
52	Locarno	123	67

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1530 1946 (2656) 65% (65%) 1532 5812 (6790) 74% (74%) 1535 2498 (2585) 68% (61%) 1537 839 (592) 55% (59%) 1538 3836 (3342) 63% (58%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 138.6 (154.6) 7790 (8076) 2012/08/03 08:00

Seven regions counted today with a decrease in overall area. Apologies for the error in yesterdays update, both days included today. Plenty of regions but not a lot of strength at the moment, Stereo Behind is suggesting another lull in the making.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
71	Locarno	86	74

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1529 556 (812) 51% (48%) 1530 2656 (3287) 65% (66%) 1532 6790 (7295) 74% (78%) 1536 1031 (2270) 58% (56%) 1535 2585 (2491) 61% (60%) 1537 592 (379) 59% (50%) 1538 3342 (1193) 58% (61%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 154.6 (144.0) 8076 (8342) 2012/08/02 08:00

Seven regions counted today with a very small increase in overall area as two new groups join the party. The LSC monthly average has come in at 47, a full update will be available in the next 48 hours. A new article on my NH winter predictions today which shows the updated EUV graph which has taken a tumble this year. If the EUV levels persist I think the jet stream will be more pronounced.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
77	Locarno	85	77

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1529 812 (1109) 48% (57%) 1530 3287 (4054) 66% (66%) 1532 7295 (8010) 78% (69%) 1536 2270 (1883) 56% (66%) 1535 2491 (2098) 60% (64%) 1537 379 50% 1538 1193 61% F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 144.0 (140.1) 8342 (8158) 2012/08/01 08:00