July News 2012

July Update: A small jump recorded by all counting methods for July but perhaps a larger jump shown in the F10.7 flux records (there was a reading of 402 during the month which may be affecting the value). July recorded the largest sunspot group of SC24 along with another large group which demonstrates the mix in activity which ended with a low monthly value. This month saw a regime shift with the southern hemisphere taking over the lions share of activity with the SIDC recording 50.4 for the south against 16.1 for the north. If the pattern continues we may be watching the end of the north with the future peak in the south marking the end of cycle max. The LSC was measured at 47, SIDC 66.5, NOAA unadjusted at 99.6 (prov). The SIDC for the 16th straight month over counting compared with NOAA with the gap diminishing this month. July experienced a much lower level of speck activity which translates to the LSC growing by a greater margin compared with the SIDC/NOAA and LSC/SIDC comparison graph showing less difference but still continues to rise over SC24.

A copy of the Layman's spreadsheet can be found HERE.

SC24 is still on track to matching SC5.

Five regions counted today with a moderate decrease in overall area. The LSC monthly average has come in at 47, a full update will be available in the next 48 hours. A new article on my NH winter predictions today which shows the updated EUV graph which has taken a tumble this year. If the EUV levels persist I think the jet stream will be more pronounced.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
55	Locarno	73	47

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1529 1109 (1505) 57% (57%) 1530 4054 (4210) 66% (70%) 1532 8010 (7842) 69% (69%) 1536 1883 (2543) 66% (61%) 1535 2098 (1194) 64% (57%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 140.1 (135.4) 8158 (9812) 2012/07/31 08:00

Six regions counted today with a moderate increase in overall area. A rally for the end of the month is in progress which is driving the monthly mean up by 1 tick. The monthly average will be under 50 which puts the cycle right on target for matching or going under SC5. The darkness values are still not showing any obvious signs of decline.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
75	Locarno	81	47

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1529 1505 (1593) 57% (60%) 1528 496 (613) 69% (67%) 1530 4210 (4223) 70% (73%) 1532 7842 (5585) 69% (69%) New 1 2543 (2089) 61% (61%) New 2 1194 57% F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 135.4 (130.5) 9812 (6895) 2012/07/30 08:00

Five regions counted today with an increase in overall area. Some increase in area as the newer regions rotate more into view. Region 1528 is decaying and might be under pressure tomorrow.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
55	Locarno	79	46

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1529 1593 (1793) 60% (60%) 1528 613 (894) 67% (60%) 1530 4223 (3960) 73% (70%) 1532 5585 (2994) 69% (66%) New 2089 (1006) 61% (59%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 130.5 (127.1) 6895 (5083) 2012/07/29 08:00

Five regions counted today with a moderate increase in overall area. The 2nd hand regions are providing a boost but from a weak base. The current pattern should last for the next week or so. No drawings today.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
49	Manual	-	46

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1529 1793 (1674) 60% (62%) 1528 894 (1039) 60% (64%) 1530 3960 (3404) 70% (70%) 1532 2994 (1601) 66% (64%) New 1006 59% F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 127.1 (118.3) 5083 (3955) 2012/07/28 08:00

Four regions counted today with an increase in overall area and lots of minor activity. Many specks counted by Locarno which today counts double compared to the LSC. The monthly average has managed to dip down by another point.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
40	Locarno	80	45

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1529 1674 (1488) 62% (68%) 1528 1039 (770) 64% (57%) 1530 3404 (2805) 70% (69%) 1532 1601 64% F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 118.3 (108.7) 3955 (2763) 2012/07/27 08:00

Three regions counted today with an increase in overall area. Some new small areas not making the threshold but at least one will probably succeed tomorrow. Activity is on the rise but it can only be described as subdued.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
27	Locarno	55	46

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1529 1488 (1142) 68% (68%) 1528 777 (780) 57% (51%) 1530 2805 (1887) 69% (67%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 108.7 (105.7) 2763 (1807) 2012/07/26 08:00

Three regions counted today with an increase in overall area. The weak activity is perhaps looking to continue as today's weak regions again drive down the monthly average.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
27	Locarno	35	46

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1529 1142 (825) 68% (60%) 1528 780 (710) 51% (57%) 1530 1887 (890) 67% (72%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 105.7 (99.8) 1807 (1300) 2012/07/25 08:00

Four regions counted today with a small increase in overall area with more unipolar type regions appearing. Region 1525 just making the grade today and is destined to be removed from the scorecard tomorrow. The monthly average is still falling but now at a slower pace. Once again today Locarno counted the new region as 4(+10) for a single unipolar type spot, the value of 4 does not exist on the Waldmeier scale so questions must be asked. Wolf would have counted it as 1(+10).

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
33	Locarno	49	47

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1525 373 (718) 68% (64%) 1529 825 (333) 60% (56%) 1528 710 (485) 57% (51%) New 890 72% F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 99.8 (96.7) 1300 (739) 2012/07/24 08:00

Three regions counted today with an increase in overall area. The weak activity is looking to hang around perhaps as the weak regions today again drive down the monthly average.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
27	Locarno	35	46

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1529 1142 (825) 68% (60%) 1528 780 (710) 51% (57%) 1530 1887 (890) 67% (72%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 105.7 (99.8) 1807 (1300) 2012/07/25 08:00

Three regions counted today with a small increase in overall area. The regions visible via Stereo Behind are now coming into view and are at this stage looking weak. The region in the south measuring to the pixel of the LSC threshold and is counted. The next day or two will give us a better picture.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
26	Locarno	48	48

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1525 718 (1241) 64% (61%) New s 333 56% New n 485 51% F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 96.7 (92.8) 739 (547) 2012/07/23 08:00

One region counted today with a small increase in overall area and a recovery in darkness. The F10.7 flux levels continue to drop with the monthly average taking another big hit today taking it to sub 50. The rest of the month could go either way looking at Stereo Behind.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
10	Locarno	29	49

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1525 1241 (1201) 61% (46%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 92.8 (95.3) 547 (408) 2012/07/22 08:00

One region counted today with a small increase in overall area but a big drop in overall darkness. The monthly moving average again taking a hit and heading towards sub 50. The F10.7 flux has plummeted to low 90's which is not far away from solar minimum figures. Stereo Behind showing some expected activity, but are these regions second generation?

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
10	Locarno	30	51

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1525 1201 (930) 46% (68%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 95.3 (103.2) 408 (466) 2012/07/21 08:00

One region counted today with a decrease in overall area. The monthly moving average is taking big hits in the last few days as the F10.7 flux values go out in sympathy. The emerging area in the south on Stereo Behind is weak at this stage. This type of solar max activity may be all we get during this most likely grand minimum cycle.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
8	Catania	30	53

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1525 930 (927) 68% (60%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 103.2 (113.1) 466 (558) 2012/07/20 08:00

Only one region counted today with another big decrease in overall area, only a single spot passing the Wolf threshold. Today Locarno counted region 1524/25 as one instead of two just to keep us guessing. All indices dropping like a stone with the 10.7 flux once again heading towards sub 100. There is a region rotating onto the face in the south that will be worth watching tomorrow, at this stage it is showing as a weak plage

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
10	Locarno	19	55

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1525 927 (604) 60% (56%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 113.1 (131.7) 558 (2047) 2012/07/19 08:00

Three regions counted today with another big decrease in overall area. NOAA also splitting the new region in the south (1524/25) but at this stage only 1525 is making the threshold. The F10.7 flux has been bouncing around but now looks to be heading down. The jet stream seems to be having a greater effect here on Earth in the NH summer compared with the last 3 years, perhaps a forerunner of the winter to come. The warm pool in the central north Pacific is also building, could all the models be wrong with their predicted El Nino for the coming months?

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
27	Locarno	38	58

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1520 2545 (5927) 76% (74%) 1523 911 (1196) 51% (59%) 1525 604 56% F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 131.7 (159.5) 2047 (4031) 2012/07/18 08:00

Three regions counted today with another big decrease in overall area. The new region rotating onto the face has already been split by Locarno, which they might need with the lull that is approaching. The monthly average is now below 60.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
33	Locarno	58	59

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1520 5927 (10215) 74% (77%) 1521 599 (2466) 52% (58%) 1523 1196 (1047) 59% (57%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 159.5 (145.1) 4031 (7269) 2012/07/17 08:00

Three regions counted today with a big decrease in overall area but new region 1523 making the grade. Region 1519 making a minor comeback today but still not quite reaching the Wolf threshold. Other speck regions might test the threshold tomorrow. The media hype surrounding the 1520 X class flare amounting to nothing with the Auroral oval barely getting into the 3rd Fritz zone as observed on my Aurora widget on the side panel.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
37	Locarno	65	61

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1520 10215 (16584) 77% (75%) 1521 2466 (4922) 58% (67%) 1523 1047 57% F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 145.1 (152.8) 7269 (11762) 2012/07/16 08:00

Two regions counted today with a decrease in overall area. No drawings from Locarno or Catania again so a manual count was performed. The 2nd half of the month should be interesting.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
36	Manual	-	63

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1520 16584 (21393) 75% (75%) 1521 4922 (7499) 67% (65%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 152.8 (152.1) 11762 (15037) 2012/07/15 08:00

Three regions counted today with a decrease in overall area. No drawings from Locarno or Catania today so a manual count was performed. F10.7 flux levels continue to fall as we wait for the X class flare to hit.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
55	Manual	-	65

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1519 641 (1047) 47% (60%) 1520 21393 (25275) 75% (76%) 1521 7499 (5280) 65% (70%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 152.1 (170.9) 15037 (16680) 2012/07/14 08:00

Three regions counted today with a small decrease in overall area but the darkness ratio stepping up again. Some new speck groups apprearing but not passing the threshold as solar conditions continue to look bland.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
64	Catania	85	65

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1519 1047 (1226) 60% (61%) 1520 25275 (27771) 76% (73%) 1521 5280 (5177) 70% (71%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 170.9 (167.1) 16680 (17245) 2012/07/13 08:00

Three regions counted today with a very small increase in overall area but the darkness ratio stepping up. There is no decline in magnetic strength which will stay this way (subdued high) for several years before the ramp down begins. The F10.7 flux levels taking a dip which might be a precursor of things to come.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
63	Catania	77	65

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1519 1226 (1322) 61% (59%) 1520 27771 (27972) 73% (74%) 1521 5177 (4232) 71% (65%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 167.1 (179.2) 17245 (16730) 2012/07/12 08:00

Three regions counted today with a very small increase in overall area. Region 1520 decreasing in area and does not improve on the record set yesterday. The darkness ratio of 1520 showing plenty of strength.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
65	Locarno	77	66

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1519 1322 (1470) 59% (54%) 1520 27972 (28912) 74% (72%) 1521 4232 (4011) 65% (68%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 179.2 (179.6) 16730 (16753) 2012/07/11 08:00

Three regions counted today with a fair increase in overall area again. NOAA has today split Region 1520 which appears reasonable but even so region 1520 now elevates to the largest region of SC24 eclipsing region 1339 @ 28005 pixels in Nov 2011. F10.7 flux levels continue to be higher but a lull is still looking good for later in the week.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
56	Locarno	62	66

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1519 1470 (1754) 54% (54%) 1520 28912 (26515) 72% (71%) 1521 4011 68% F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 179.6 (165.3) 16753 (14135) 2012/07/10 08:00

Three regions counted today with a fair increase in overall area. Region 1520 has grown quickly and now at this early stage challenges region 1339 for the largest group (NOAA) of SC24, the chances are high this record will be broken in the next few days. But the fury has no depth I suspect as the next week is looking decidedly weak for new activity.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
72	Locarno	92	67

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1515 986 (6114) 53% (65%) 1519 1754 (1434) 54% (53%) 1520 26515 (15523) 71% (70%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 165.3 (163.7) 14135 (11207) 2012/07/09 08:00

Four regions counted today with a decrease in overall area. Region 1520 now counted by NOAA is a substantial group that is today again counted as 4 groups by Locarno. I fail to see how this group differs from 1515 which has been counted as one group by the same organization, some documentation or reason would be good?

The current monthly average is looking to take a hit in a few days, but the strength in the south is apparent. The very important metric to follow this cycle is whether the southern hemisphere has enough reversing flux to reverse polarity. So far the situation is still looking very weak.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
71	Locarno	97	66

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1513 720 (1866) 69% (73%) 1515 6114 (13381) 65% (70%) 1519 1434 (1113) 53% (56%) 1520 15523 (7897) 70% (63%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 163.7 (163.0) 11207 (11518) 2012/07/08 08:00

Four regions counted today with a small increase in overall area. Region 1518 has failed the 24 hour rule and is not counted, yesterdays results have been amended. The new area in the south is still not numbered by NOAA but has been split into for by Locarno, I fail to see how the  new area is split which covers a smaller area than 1515 and all spots appeared at the same time? The LSC will count this area as one.

The recent activity has some jumping, but it looks bleak from here on, looking at Stereo Behind.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
76	Locarno	120	65

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1513 1866 (3042) 73% (72%) 1515 13381 (16980) 70% (73%) 1519 1113 (902) 56% (51%) New 7897 (1521) 63% (53%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 163.0 (170.1) 11518 (11350) 2012/07/07 08:00

Five Four regions counted today with another small decrease in overall area. Region 1518 just scraping through and subject to the 24 hour rule (failed) with a new region rotating onto the southern hemisphere that is quickly split into 3 by Catania. This region is counted as 1 by the LSC with a review tomorrow. The DSN graph is updated along with the very interesting solar polar magnetic strength graph from WSO. The southern hemisphere is leading the way recently in regard to sunspots but is still far from reversing polarity in the near term.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
53	Catania	86	64

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1513 3042 (4248) 72% (73%) 1515 16980 (17937) 73% (68%) 1519 902 (540) 51% (54%) 1518 **** ***** New 1521 53% F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 170.1 (168.6) 11350 (11232) 2012/07/06 08:00

 

F10.7 flux is adjusted values measured at Penticton yesterday @ 20:00 UTC. DSN = pixel area x darkness. Bracketed

Three regions counted today with another small decrease in overall area. Region 1515 continuing to grow still as the region begins to move out of view. 1517 falling below the threshold as the M class flares continue from 1515 which pump the F10.7 flux levels over short time spans. The near outlook perhaps showing signs of weakness again.

Most models and predictions are pointing toward a building El Nino for the coming NH winter, but I think it is too early to call. The Neg PDO is still influencing the Pacific and there seems to be a fight going on with the chance of the trade winds picking up if the not so strong warm pool in the central northern Pacific decides to move towards Asia. If so any building El Nino might not get off the ground. The QBO position is decidedly easterly this year which can influence the AO into the neg mode, which along with the jet streams should make this winter interesting. We are currently seeing some strange NH summer conditions as an end product of the jet stream. My prediction for the NH winter will be released at the end of July.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
55	Locarno	81	65

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1513 4248 (4745) 73% (76%) 1515 17937 (16880) 68% (67%) 1519 540 54% F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 168.6 (150.7) 11232 (11123) 2012/07/05 08:00

Four regions counted today with another small decrease in overall area. Region 1515 continuing to grow but all the other regions are going the other way. Stereo Behind is suggesting a mixed bag for the coming weeks.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
69	Locarno	76	68

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1512 639 (1329) 45% (52%) 1513 4745 (5196) 76% (75%) 1515 16880 (15331) 67% (67%) 1517 1348 (2452) 55% (60%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 150.7 (171.4) 11123 (11323) 2012/07/04 08:00

Four regions counted today with a small decrease in overall area. The F10.9 flux spiking to high levels probably due to the run of M class flares from 1515. Today is a rare day when the LSC and SIDC both agree on numbers with Locarno only recording 4 regions. There was an error in yesterdays update (now fixed) with the main table not updating for some reason...apologies.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
62	Locarno	62	68

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1512 1329 (2127) 52% (55%) 1513 5196 (5178) 75% (71%) 1515 15331 (13557) 67% (68%) 1517 2452 (3197) 60% (56%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 171.4 (137.9) 11323 (11119) 2012/07/03 08:00

Overall area increasing more with region 1515 developing into a moderate sized group. The "fire in the belly" is now with us but perhaps will not follow through. Locarno is absent with Catania getting an image, which unfortunately shows the perceived push to count higher. Some of the splits performed to drag out another group are questionable and most likely would not have occurred when Wolfer tested his 0.6 reduction factor against Wolf's original count. The sunspot record has no over riding body to maintain a consistent method and has been allowed to move with the individuals in control. The LSC can only attempt to mirror the method used by Wolf during the last grand minimum, but with reasonable confidence.

Yesterday I had 1517 labelled incorrectly as 1516.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
81	Catania	103	71

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1512 2127 (3171) 55% (62%) 1513 5178 (3726) 71% (70%) 1515 13557 (10599) 68% (66%) 1517 3197 (1207) 56% (73%) F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 137.9 (128.2) 11119 (9079) 2012/07/02 08:00

Some increase in activity today with four regions counted with overall area rising again. The full monthly update is delayed by one day with all graphs available tomorrow. The SIDC showing a small drop from 69 in May to 64.5 for June.

The darkness ratio/magnetic strength is once again showing no sign of decline just yet.

LSC Daily	Draw Ref.	SIDC	LSC Mov Avg.
62	Locarno	80	62

NOAA Region #   Pixels Darkness 1512 3171 (4373) 62% (65%) 1513 3726 (3302) 70% (65%) 1515 10599 (7512) 66% (66%) 1517 1207 73% F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC 128.2 (121.3) 9079 (7792) 2012/07/01 08:00

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