May 2012 News

May Update: Sunspot activity rose slightly over May but still remains well and truly in the Grand Minimum scale. The southern hemisphere activity continued to remain stronger than previous months but still lagging behind the north. LSC was measured at 41.9, SIDC 69, NOAA unadjusted at 99.5 (prov). This month saw NOAA splitting groups like not seen before along with the SIDC going crazy with group splits. Group splitting is another method of artificially raising the sunspot number. SIDC for the 14th straight month over counting compared with NOAA. April was another month of heavy speck activity resulting in a substantial difference between the LSC and other counting methods although the gap narrowed by a small margin. The speck ratio is responsible for the large divergence which saw great variation on several days throughout May. Because the LSC does not count regions with its largest spot under the SIDC raw value of 3, it can be used as a guide to the overall speck ratio, which continues to rise over SC24. This is further evidence that L&P are just measuring more specks of lower magnetic value which incorrectly lowers the overall magnetic value using their method (a speck has the same rating as a large spot).

A copy of the Layman's spreadsheet can be found HERE.

SC24 is still on track to matching SC5.

MAY NEWS

Two regions counted today with the overall area decreasing. Region 1490 reducing substantially over the past 24 hours. F10.7 readings are not updated at present. Another month draws to a close which should show a small to medium rise over last month, update available soon.

Two regions counted today with the overall area decreasing. F10.7 flux falling once again to low levels with what appears to be minimal future prospects for strong activity on the horizon.

Three regions counted today with the overall area increasing very slightly. Other speck regions not passing the threshold are present in both hemispheres as the F10.7 flux values remain low. The broadband fund has now raised close to $500, many thanks.

Three regions counted today with the overall area increasing. Region 1491 not passing the 24 hour rule and is not counted today or yesterday. Many thanks again for the very generous donations, we are already half way.

Three regions counted today with the overall area increasing a very small amount again. Two new weak regions appearing not worthy of near cycle max, most indicators are showing poor solar strength. Many thanks for the already generous contributions.

Two regions counted today with the overall area increasing a very small amount. The current outlook is not overly strong. Yesterday there was a typo with the region 1486 darkness ratio that is now amended.

Two regions counted today and three counted yesterday with the overall area decreasing more. Over the past 2 days the trend has continued to slide, which is far from expected this close to cycle max. SC24 is a dud cycle that will ultimately prove to be the first cycle of the current grand minimum.

Three regions counted today with the overall area decreasing. Some plage regions rotating into view, with general activity continuing to trend down.

Three regions counted today with the overall area decreasing. Region 1477 falling below the threshold but other speck regions will be counted by some. Dr Nicola Scafetta has sent me his new paper that provides a possible mechanism for planetary influenece over solar output. A review can be read HERE.

Four regions counted today with the overall area decreasing a moderate amount. Dr Nicola Scafetta has sent me his new paper that provides a possible mechanism for planetary influenece over solar output. A review can be read HERE.

Four regions counted today with the overall area increasing a moderate amount. Dr Nicola Scafetta has sent me his new paper that provides a possible mechanism for planetary influenece over solar output. A review can be read HERE.

Four regions counted today with the overall area increasing. Stereo Behind is suggesting a slight decline ahead with the southern hemisphere looking to influence the near future...we shall see.

Four regions counted today with the overall area increasing a small amount. Overall activity has picked up this month but so far not to levels experienced a few months ago.

Four regions counted today with the overall area decreasing a small amount. New region 1484 making the grade with 1481 fading away.

Four regions counted today with the overall area decreasing again. Region 1476 dropping off dramatically today with other new speck regions appearing. A new story on the Homeric Minimum on Carl's Blog HERE.

Four regions counted today with the overall area decreasing. Both the SIDC and NOAA have split groups 1477 and 1479 leading to an inflated count, this is somewhat new for NOAA. The LSC will evaluate the regions at the end of the month. A new story on the Homeric Minimum on Carl's Blog HERE.

Three regions counted today with the overall area decreasing moderately. Region 1476 dropping off quickly now as still more uniploar regions appear. A new story on the Homeric Minimum on Carl's Blog HERE.

Three regions counted today with the overall area decreasing. Region 1476 losing strength and size today with new region 1479 making the grade. A new story on the Homeric Minimum on Carl's Blog HERE.

Two regions counted today with the overall area increasing again. Region 1476 now almost straight on but still is well short of the SC24 record for area. Some M class flare activity but F10.7 flux still remaining low considering. A new story on the Homeric Minimum on Carl's Blog HERE.

Three regions counted today with the overall area increasing a small amount. Region 1476 has steadied and should rise slowly as the group becomes more straight on to our view. A new story on the Homeric Minimum on Carl's Blog HERE.

Three regions counted today with the overall area increasing again. Region 1476 is now approaching the area record set by region 1339 (28005) but so far the F10.7 flux values remain low for this level of activity. Region 1471 has dropped 20 points on the darkness scale which is very unusual for a uniploar type region. Region 1476 is going in the reverse direction on the darkness scale and once again shows there is no lacking of magnetic strength as we approach cycle max.

Two regions counted today with the overall area increasing again. New region 1476 continuing to grow into a moderately large region. A story on WUWT today looks at the Homeric Minimum which is a solar grand minimum that occurred around 2800 years ago. The “Homeric minimum” is hindcast with precision when looking at solar AM. This is no mean feat as there can be no room for error. The solar path and planet angles of the Homeric Minimum are nearly the same as the Sporer Minimum and offer clear evidence of a repeating pattern. This pattern doesn’t come along all that often.

UV variation over a solar grand minimum is a strong point of the paper reviewed on WUWT. The case for solar induced UV changes that affect climate is growing by the month. We are also witnessing it in real time over the past few winters in particular. As the heat leaves the oceans this will induce further cooling.

UV can vary by 30-100% over the cycle depending on the wave length, current UV levels are substantially lower than those experienced typically at this point in the solar cycle. All wave lengths contribute to altering ozone content at different levels of the atmosphere.

Carl's blog has been upgraded recently and will soon report on some aspects of solar/climate research that is not dealt with on this site. Carl left us nearly 3 years ago but his memory will live on in his legacy to solar research.

Two regions counted today with the overall area increasing again. New region 1476 doubling in size as it rotates further into view but at this stage is not showing any rise in the 10.7 flux value along with only low level C class flares. Perhaps tomorrow the situation may ramp up?

Carl's blog has been upgraded recently and will soon report on some aspects of solar/climate research that is not dealt with on this site. Carl left us nearly 3 years ago but his memory will live on in his legacy to solar research.

Two regions counted today with the overall area increasing. New region 1476 showing more promise than that shown on Stereo Behind while other regions fade.

The Sun is beginning to be accepted as a valid controller of weather and climate as the world continues to experience unusually cold weather patterns. Paul Hudson is another who looks at the jet stream connection in the UK area along with WUWT writing on the failed long range weather reports from the Met Office. It may be hard to pinpoint the exact region that will be affected by future jet stream conditions but there is no escaping that regions will be hit as shown continually on the iceagenow website. The jet streams and blocking highs seem to be oblivious to the AO position with cold conditions still active during its positive phase. The AO/AOO is regulated back to a positioner of the jet stream. Further research is needed looking at the upper atmospheric conditions that lead to Rossby wave changes near the Tropopause, that modulates and creates individual pressure patterns....I think solar induced UV fluctuations will play an important role.

Carl's blog has been upgraded recently and will soon report on some aspects of solar/climate research that is not dealt with on this site. Carl left us nearly 3 years ago but his memory will live on in his legacy to solar research.

Four regions counted today with the overall area falling a small amount. The existing regions showing a substantial downgrade, but what looks like another unipolar region is making its way on to face. We have had sessions in the past during this cycle where the weaker unipolar regions reigned...perhaps another episode is in the wings?

Some are proclaiming we are near cycle max or past it, the northern hemisphere is flirting in the neutral zone with the south lagging somewhat. The solar pole strength graph shows us that past cycles do not reach maximum around the neutral stage but continue to build strongly into the reverse polarity zone before peaking. But that is the past and we are definitely on new ground.

Three regions counted today with the overall area falling a small amount. Region 1470 now makes the grade but outgoing region 1473 fails.

Three regions counted today as NOAA splits region 1469 with the overall area climbing a small amount. The solar wind speed has been maintaining very low levels.

Two regions counted today with the overall area climbing. Region 1472 falling below the threshold and is not counted today or yesterday. The DSN rising mainly on the increase in darkness as the F10.7 flux values drop again in the face of rising area and darkness. The monthly values for April are updated showing another fall in activity. SC24 continues to show strong signs of the first phase of a solar grand minimum.

Three regions counted today with the overall area climbing a small amount. Region 1471 showing a strong darkness ratio once again showing no real reduction in magnetic strength just yet. April values are not expected to be moving upwards by any large amount. Update available soon.

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