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June Update: A decline in activity this month is recorded by all. June was a mixed month of large groups and spotless days. The Landscheidt Minimum is almost beyond doubt as we approach SC24 cycle max with very mediocre strength. The LSC was measured at 35, SIDC 63.5, NOAA unadjusted at 89.5 (prov). The SIDC for the 15th straight month over counting compared with NOAA with the gap growing this month. June was another month of heavy speck activity resulting in a substantial difference between the LSC and other counting methods.Because the LSC does not count regions with its largest spot under the SIDC raw value of 3, it can be used as a guide to the overall speck ratio, which continues to rise over SC24. This is further evidence that L&P are just measuring more specks of lower magnetic value which incorrectly lowers the overall magnetic value using their method (a speck has the same rating as a large spot).
A copy of the Layman's spreadsheet can be found HERE.
SC24 is still on track to matching SC5.
JUNE NEWS
Three regions counted today with overall area rising again. The month is over with a reasonable drop from last month with a monthly mean of 35 recorded (full update tomorrow). The month has been mixed but nothing near what would be expected of a normal cycle near cyle max. The Landscheidt Minimum earns its name with each passing month.
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Mov Avg. |
| 43 |
Locarno |
68 |
35 |
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Three regions counted today with overall area rising. The Catania drawing used today with the LSC quite some distance from their figures because of the high speck count. Catania counting 6 regions. June will show a decline from last month.
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Mov Avg. |
| 42 |
Catania |
74 |
34 |
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Three regions counted today with overall area rising. Locarno somehow picking up a speck group to the left of 1513, I dont believe they could see these specks with the so called standard Wolf 80mm 64X telescope. The SDO image for the same time shows tiny specks at full resolution. In Melbourne today I had some of the best viewing to date with more detail than usual, I could clearly make out the plage areas and using my 110mm with 80X I had no hope of seeing the specks recorded by Locarno ( I compared the SDO images for my timeframe against Locarno which look the same)...something not right here, I have prepared an image (reversed) so a comparison of what Locarno and SDO saw at 06:30 can be detailed, questions must be asked why some specks are seen and not others? Either way the two split groups both contain areas below the Wolf threshold and are not counted. The monthly average stays at 34.
The SDO image is lagging today so I have used the 07:30 image.
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Mov Avg. |
| 39 |
Locarno |
58 |
34 |
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Three regions counted today with overall area rising. The mediocre solar activity is back with us again. Locarno very keen to split the new area today.
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Mov Avg. |
| 41 |
Locarno |
47 |
34 |
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Yesterdays region that just missed out now quickly forming into 1512. Another region in the north is forming which is weak at present and below the threshold. Stereo Behind still has reduced activity in the pipeline it would seem, as June gets closer to the end with what will be another grand minimum type month.
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Mov Avg. |
| 16 |
Locarno |
23 |
34 |
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A new region appearing today that does not pass the Wolf threshold, making this the 4th day in a row to be counted spotless. The largest spot of this group measures 323 pixels. Locarno has found 2 groups with another tiny speck counting as a separate region just above the larger non counting region. The month has 5 days to go, but at this stage the running avarage is 7 points below the May total.
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Mov Avg. |
| 0 |
Locarno |
19 |
34 |
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A fitting day for 3 days spotless. Carl Smith passed away 3 years ago on this day and without his what will be famous graph we would not have been able to predict the outcome of SC24 with such accuracy. RIP Carl.
The F10.7 flux values are looking more like cycle minimum than cycle max, Locarno is claiming 3 groups today which baffles me, I dont believe they could see some of the specks counted today with the original Wolf 80mm telescope using a polarizing filter and naked eye as per Wolf. The Projection method must be adding more detail.
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Mov Avg. |
| 0 |
Locarno |
23 |
36 |
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The 2nd day of a spotless Sun is recorded. Locarno some how counting two groups which seems unbelievable or at least suspicious. I wonder how a 64X magnification telescope at 80mm aperture can see the speck/s that are only just visible via the SDO satellite. The F10.7 flux values have plummeted and are now threatening the 90 barrier as the LSC monthly average also drops to 37. The blogosphere seems quiet on this topic?
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Mov Avg. |
| 0 |
Locarno |
15 |
37 |
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oday is spotless as measured using the Wolf principle, but Locarno has managed to find 2 groups, the smaller speck is just another example of how the modern system cannot be used when comparing today's activity with past grand minima. There is some fire in the belly to come soon, so we must enjoy this brief interlude that is not characteristic of cycle max. Will the F10.7 flux values go below 100?
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Mov Avg. |
| 0 |
Locarno |
15 |
39 |
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One region counted today and a decrease in the overall area, not quite making the spotless day and missing out by a few hours. There does look like some smaller action about to rotate onto the face which could still possibly just be plage. The expected lull is here for the time being with the running monthly mean for the 3/4 mark close to 40.
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Avg. |
| 11 |
Locarno |
11 |
41 |
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One region counted today and a decrease in the overall area, tomorrow might come close to being recorded spotless. There was an error in yesterday's LSC daily value that has been amended. The monthly running meaning mean is heading towards sub 40 as the F10.7 flux values head towards 100.
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Avg. |
| 14 |
Locarno |
22 |
42 |
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One region counted today and a decrease in the overall area, most of the solar visible face is spotless. A new speck region in the south is currently showing a weak underlying magnetic structure. Today's Locarno count is higher than yesterday showing the folly of counting specks.
A fairly big tremor in Melbourne tonight which adds to 5 in about 12 months, that's more than the total I can remember previously over the past 50 years.
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Avg. |
| 15 |
Locarno |
39 |
44 |
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Two regions counted today and a decrease in the overall area, most of the solar visible face is spotless. Region 1507 just scraping through today as the F10.7 flux falls to weaker ground. The LSC running monthly mean of 46 is edging lower.
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Avg. |
| 28 |
Locarno |
34 |
46 |
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Two regions counted and a decrease in the overall area. There is some possible future activity on Stereo Behind in the south, but if not the very real chance of a spotless day is not out of the question.
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Avg. |
| 37 |
Locarno |
71 |
47 |
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The tide has turned today with two regions counted and a decrease in the overall area. Region 1505 once again falling apart and fails the 24 hour rule. Region 1506 also falling off the perch as the monthly average trends down.
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Avg. |
| 43 |
Locarno |
72 |
47 |
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Four regions counted today with an increase in the overall area. Region 1505 and 1507 were starting to degrade but now have renewed vigor with 1505 back on the score board. The expected lull is not with us yet, but at the halfway point of June the LSC monthly is sitting on 48.
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Avg. |
| 61 |
Locarno |
82 |
48 |
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Three regions counted today with another strong increase in the overall area. Region 1504 developing into a moderate sized group but region 1505 breaking up and failing the threshold test. Region 1507 is also made up of many small spots that at present are sneaking over the line. The darkness ratio of 1504 continues to show strong magnetic strength expected near cycle max. Locarno updating for today and yesterday prompting a revision for yesterday. Locarno being more conservative than Catania yesterday splitting less groups. The difference in the telescopes showing today on region 1507 with Locarno counting a raw 27 and Catania counting 39, remember the Locarno figure is also boosted by the Waldmeier weighting system which if taken out would mean an even greater difference. Both drawings were performed at the same time in level 3 conditions. This should put an end to the Svalgaard argument that both telescopes can resolve to the same speck size, with Catania's much bigger aperture and more modern design able to see more specks. Catania also picking up an extra group of 3 specks near 1506 not seen by Locarno.
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Avg. |
| 56 |
Locarno |
68 |
46 |
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Four regions counted today with a strong increase in the overall area again with region 1504 nearly doubling in size in 24 hours. Stereo Behind continues to look interesting. Regions 1505/07 are heading towards the threshold. Locarno not posting as yet, so Catania drawing used.
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Avg. |
| 73 |
Locarno |
80 |
46 |
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Five regions counted today with a strong increase in the overall area. Locarno not posting as yet, so Catania drawing used.
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Avg. |
| 87 |
Catania |
107 | 43 |
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Five regions counted today with a small increase in the overall area again with some new regions gaining ground. The outlook is still not strong after the current crop of weakish regions. Region 1499 reducing quickly and not passing the 24 hour rule. Locarno now providing drawings back to the 9th. A recount has been preformed including a reduction for 1499.
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Avg. |
| 64 |
Locarno |
91 | 40 |
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The Venus transit as Wolf would have seen it through his 37mm handheld telescope which was his main telescope used to count sunspots. Melbourne was covered in cloud for most of the transit but I managed to take a couple of frames quickly during a very brief opening in the sky (1st image) and then took a few just before the transition ended.
Four regions counted today with a small increase in the overall area. Some new minor activity emerging with the future still looking weak at this stage. No drawings available today from the SIDC, so a manual count from the SDO image using the infamous Waldmeier method is required (the Waldmeier inflation is later removed).
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Avg. |
| 29 |
Locarno |
- | 37 |
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Three regions counted today with the overall area decreasing a moderate amount again. All regions decaying with as yet no new activity which along with the weak Stereo Behind outlook perhaps suggests another lull might be forming. The F10.7 flux has dropped sharply after yesterdays mild flare activity and CME. The darkness ratio has continued to stay relatively strong which again is at odds with L&P, if they are measuring right now the incredible speck ratio will severely drive down their overall reading, leading I think to spurious results. This maybe a grand minimum but we still expect a rise in magnetism towards cycle max.
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Avg. |
| 35 |
Catania |
96 | 41 |
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Three regions counted today with the overall area decreasing a moderate amount. There are a couple of teething issues with the new daily format that I am still ironing out. A revision of yesterdays count was performed because Catania had included specks (23) in region 1493 (1496) that belonged to 1499 (1499 was not counted by LSC). Revised numbers will be in green. When viewing the daily drawings from Locarno and Catania it is very obvious of the inconsistencies in their methods with some days verging on the unfathomable. I think they need to publish proper counting documentation standards so we can understand how they arrive at their values, at present there seems to be no regular pattern especially when looking across multiple observers on the same telescope. For the time being I am assuming a 0.55 discount factor for Catania, if someone has long term data on the ratio between the Catania raw values and the finished SIDC count please contact me.
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Avg. |
| 43 |
Catania |
111 | 41 |
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Three regions counted today with the overall area decreasing with no new activity for several days. F10.7 flux rising as the area falls and no real flare activity to speak of. The Catania drawing today picking up far more specks than normally seen in a corresponding Locarno drawing because of the bigger, more advanced telescope at Catania. The Wolf handheld replica not seeing the tiny specks counted by Catania today.
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Avg. |
| 43 | Catania | 114 | 41 |
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Three regions counted today with the overall area increasing. The Sun is covered in specks along with a few not so strong regions. The discrepancy with SIDC is once again huge today. In Australia we are in the depths of winter which has started early in the ski resorts. At present we are experiencing a deep east coast low that is producing cold temps, floods, and 10 meter swells that will team up with king tides. The frequency of low pressure cells continues to be high.
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Avg. |
| 47 | Locarno | 105 | 41 |
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Three regions counted today with the overall area increasing a small amount. Region 1498 not passing the 24 hour rule. Today is a very good example of how the modern count is severely inflated with Locarno going mad with group splits. Along with the increased speck activity the Wolfer 0.6 reduction factor does not cut it as today's figures show. Check the Locarno link to witness the counting method. Column explanations are detailed in the blue text below.
| LSC Daily | Draw Ref. | SIDC | LSC Avg. |
| 39 | Locarno | 97 | 39 |
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Four regions counted today with the overall area increasing by a moderate amount. New region 1498 sneaking over the line today as region 1490 fails to make the threshold. The new broadband connection is far more productive, the May LSC values will be available Monday Australian time.
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Four regions counted today with the overall area increasing. Region 1493 has been split by NOAA (1496) for no apparent reason, the distance and initial appearance suggests one region. Both NOAA and SIDC are more inclined to split regions recently which adds yet more to the modern count. The LSC will be treating this area as one region. The new broadband connection is far more productive, the May LSC values will be available Monday Australian time.
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Four regions counted today with the overall area increasing. There are a number of new regions with several falling below the threshold, all regions are considered weak at present. The SIDC and NOAA sunspot values today will not show the true picture.
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Many thanks go to Carl's brother Dave for providing the Domain, Server and Software.
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