April 2012 News

March Update: A small rise in activity this month from a very weak base courtesy mainly due to region 1429,  which was also a reversed polarity region which has a negative affect on the pole. LSC was measured at 31.6, SIDC 64.2, NOAA unadjusted at 77.9 (prov). SIDC for the 12th straight month over counting compared with NOAA, with the difference being substantial this month. March was another month of heavy speck activity resulting in a substantial difference between the LSC and other counting methods. The speck ratio is responsible for the large divergence which saw great variation in the last 2 weeks of March. Because the LSC does not count regions with its largest spot under the SIDC raw value of 3, it can be used as a guide to the overall speck ratio, which continues to rise over SC24. This is further evidence that L&P are just measuring more specks of lower magnetic value which incorrectly lowers the overall magnetic value using their method (a speck has the same rating as a large spot).

SC24 is still on track to matching SC5.

APRIL NEWS

Three regions counted today with the overall area climbing. F10.7 flux falling in the face of rising area is possibly a consequence of a fairly strong negative effect from unipolar region 1471?

Four regions counted for the 28th and three regions counted for the 29th with the overall area dropping but then rising slightly. Region 1466 showing some new growth but will be out of view shortly. Many specks will once again skew the official counts.

Ian Wilson, an Australian Astrophysicist is doing some impressive research on solar dynamics and the solar cyle length and grand minima. A new article can be found HERE.

Three regions counted today with overall area dropping off strongly again, all regions shrinking today with some speck areas failing to make the grade. The DSN graph was updated today and continues to show the overall decline over the past few months.

Ian Wilson, an Australian Astrophysicist is doing some impressive research on solar dynamics and the solar cyle length and grand minima. A new article can be found HERE.

Three regions counted today with overall area dropping off strongly. All indices looking considerably weaker today with F10.7 flux once again approaching low levels. The new plage areas (old sunspot areas) failing to produce with Stereo Behind not appearing overly strong...is this the end of the current flurry of activity?

A recent report on the state of the solar poles HERE.

Five regions counted today with overall area decreasing rapidly again . New region 1468 replacing outgoing region 1462. The new plage areas at present looking weak.

Five regions counted today with overall area decreasing rapidly . All regions and indicies showing a marked decline. Some new plage areas rotating onto the face will test the future strength. Of note is the recent activity has lacked any real flare action.

Five regions counted today with overall area now decreasing. New Region 1465 adding to the mix that shows a mixed bag of rising and falling regions.

Four regions counted today with overall area rising slightly. Region 1459 making a small comeback today. This month is looking very mixed so far.

Five regions counted today with another big rise in overall area. Region 1465 growing quickly with most other regions also showing growth. F10.7 flux is still on the increase.

Four regions counted today with another big rise in overall area. Region 1461 fails the 24 hour rule and is not counted today or yesterday. Other regions showing strong growth with some other speck groups forming and counted by others.

The solar dynamo has woken from its recent slumber with five regions counted today and a rise in overall area. Whether the increase in activity is sustained will be shown over the next week, there has been some weakening of the darkness ratio today.

Another ramp up in overall activity today with four regions counted and a rise in overall area. All indicies showing an increase.

Some gain in solar output today but still only one region counted with the overall area rising. The northern hemisphere appears to be resting somewhat recently.

One region counted today with the overall area rising slightly but the darkness ratio dropping off. The outlook continues to look feeble.

The third spotless day is racked up for April as the speck ratio for SC24 continues to climb. No specks today exceeding the 333 pixel limit as April continues to look very weak. A new article on the planetary theory pioneers and how they perhaps missed the vital ingredient HERE.

One region counted today with overall area decreasing. Region 1455 reducing in size, the weak cycle continues. A new article today on the planetary theory pioneers and how they perhaps missed the vital ingredient HERE.

One region counted today with other specks maintaining station. Region 1455 growing and now passing the 24 hour rule and was easily viewable through both Wolf replica telescopes today which experienced excellent seeing.

One region counted today with other specks appearing. Region 1455 largest spot just making the grade and is still subject to the 24 hour rule before being recognized. Today's weak activity is the result of what looked like reasonable activity on Stereo Behind 10 days ago...output remains weak.

A second spotless day recorded but with some specks appearing that will be counted by others. Future activity continuing to look weak. The northern hemisphere is not finished with winter yet, while Australia recently had early snow. The jet stream and AO/AAO still providing unusual cold.

Another spotless day recorded for 2012 showing that even though the cycle is close to solar maximum, the Sun is indeed in a funk. The likelihood of SC24 being the first cycle of a current grand minimum increases, which if correct will be an early start to the Landscheidt Minimum. Landscheidt used the downward spikes of negative solar torque or angular momentum to predict solar grand minima, but we now know that method is very approximate. The perturbed angular momentum that occurs near the Landscheidt markers is much more likely to be proved the more accurate method along with giving us a scale of the downturn.

We are one third into April which is at present showing a downturn on last month, if this trend continues it will be significant.

One region counted today with overall area decreasing to low levels. Region 1450 just holding out to deprive us of a spotless day. F10.7 flux readings looking to go sub 90 at the current rate of decline.

One region counted today with overall area decreasing a fair amount. Tomorrow has the chance of a spotless day.

One region counted today with overall area decreasing a fair amount. F10.7 flux falling to very low levels in the last 24 hours.

One region counted today with overall area decreasing a small amount. The expected future activity is now not looking so strong. The weak cycle continues....

One region counted today with overall area increasing. Region 1452 weakening quickly reinforcing the poor underlying strength of this cycle and does not pass the 24 hour rule, and is not counted yesterday. Region 1450 showing fast growth but still a small region at this stage. Looking at the Stereo Behind images it seems as though the southern hemisphere is experiencing some resurgence.

Three regions counted today with overall area falling but darkness increasing. Regions 1450 and 1452 now showing a little more strength.

A single unipolar region counted today with overall area falling again. Many other specks not making the grade, the speck ratio continues to be prolific.

A single unipolar region counted today with overall area falling again with the darkness ratio taking a hit. March is another weak month, but there will be some tests coming for April in the next week or so.

A new month begins as a single unipolar region counted today with overall area falling again. The update for March available soon

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