question

What modulates our Sun? The majority of science work on the principle that the Sun is self modulating and each solar cycle is a product of a random number generator. There are others that suspect the Sun is modulated by the planets with a special emphasis on Uranus & Neptune. Thanks to Carl Smith who has recently left us we have new knowledge that significantly adds to Jose, Landscheidt & Charvàtovà's work.

Geoff Sharp

Feb 2012 News

 

 February Update: A dramatic fall in activity experienced  this month with the LSC at 18.4, SIDC 33.1, NOAA unadjusted 50.1 (prov). SIDC for the 11th straight month over counting compared with NOAA, with the difference again moving closer this month. February was another month of heavy speck activity resulting in a substantial difference between the LSC and other counting methods. The magnitude of the fall this month might persuade some to think cycle max has already arrived, time will tell but the current trend is very different to previous cycles, unless we compare with the Group Sunspot Count of SC5.

SC24 is still on track to matching SC5.

 

 

One weak unipolar region counted today with overall area dropping a small amount. F10.7 flux heading towards sub 100 again. This months totals will be interesting.

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1423 2629 (2741) 61% (64%)
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
101.3 (103.5) 1168 (1383) 2012/02/29 03:00
 

One weak unipolar region counted today with overall area rising a small amount. Some specks remain that are well below the threshold. This month is expected to be lower than January.

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1423 2741 (2329) 64% (66%)
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
103.5 (104.9) 1383 (1295) 2012/02/28 03:00
 

One weak unipolar region counted today with overall area remaining level. Some other specks will inflate the official counts today.

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1423 2329 (1948) 66% (64%)
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
104.9 (105.9) 1295 (1229) 2012/02/27 03:00
 

Two regions counted today with a  drop in overall area. The northern hemisphere is looking very weak at present.

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1422 552 (1612) 59% (60%)
1423 1948 (1401) 64% (69%)
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
105.9 (106.7) 1229 (1543) 2012/02/26 03:00
 

Two regions counted today with a  drop in overall area. Some new speck activity appearing.

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1422 1612 (2876) 60% (59%)
1423 1401 (988) 69% (53%)
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
106.7 (101.2) 1543 (1652) 2012/02/25 03:00
 

Two regions counted today with a moderate drop in overall area.Stereo Behind is showing more than what we see right now.

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1422 2876 (4710) 59% (67%)
1423 988 (349) 53% (48%)
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
101.2 (102.0) 1652 (2445) 2012/02/24 03:00
 

Two regions counted today with a moderate drop in overall area. A new region rotating onto the face looks at this stage to be another unipolar spot with unipolar type region 1420 now below the Wolf type threshold.

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1422 4710 (6935) 67% (65%)
New 349 48%
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
102.0 (101.0) 2445 (3302) 2012/02/23 03:00
 

Two regions counted today with a moderate drop in overall area. F10.7 flux dropping again quickly as this month continues its slumber.

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1420 501 (771) 55% (50%)
1422 6935 (8209) 65% (61%)
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
101.0 (108.7) 3302 (3833) 2012/02/22 03:00
 

Two regions counted today with a small rise in overall area. F10.7 flux jumping up, but still low.

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1420 771 (1278) 50% (52%)
1422 8209 (6412) 61% (72%)
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
108.7 (102.9) 3833 (3750) 2012/02/2103:00
 

wo regions counted today with reasonable jump in overall area.  New region 1422 growing quickly since the last update and also showing strong magnetic strength.

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1420 1278 (1727) 52% (61%)
1422 6412 72%
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
102.9 (101.7) 3750 (1326) 2012/02/20 03:00
 

Two regions counted today with a small rise in overall area.  Some other speck activity that may develope further. Overall activity very weak.

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1419 342 (475) 68% (72%)
1420 1727 (1886) 61% (55%)
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
101.7(101.3) 1326 (1097) 2012/02/19 03:00
 

 

 Two regions counted today with a drop in overall area. 

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1419 475 (578) 72% (60%)
1420 1886 (1984) 55% (62%)
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
101.3 (100.8) 1097 (1526) 2012/02/18 03:00
 

Three regions counted today with a drop in overall area.  Unipolar type regions dominating again. The pipeline also looks weak for now.

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1416 1123 (2069) 50% (59%)
1419 578 (719) 60% (64%)
1420 1984 (1695) 62% (65%)
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
100.8 (102.0) 1526 (2545) 2012/02/17 02:00
 

 

Three regions counted today with a drop in overall area.  F10.7 flux is getting close to 100 again with February looking already to be a weak month. Meanwhile the record cold in Europe continues with more deaths recorded and many countries reporting power shortages.

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1416 2069 (3871) 59% (60%)
1419 719 (795) 64% (68%)
1420 1695 (1383) 65% (57%)
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
102.0 (104.8) 1965 (2545) 2012/02/16 03:00
 

Three regions counted today with a drop in overall area. The DSN values have been updated which now clearly show a decline in overall solar activity over the past few months.

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1416 3871 (5967) 60% (62%)
1419 795 (751) 68% (63%)
1420 1383 (840) 57% (66%)
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
104.8 (105.7) 2545 (3318) 2012/02/15 03:00
 

Three regions counted today with a big drop in overall area as region 1416 nearly halves in size. A big storm looks to be heading towards most of Europe in the next 24-48 hours.

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1416 5967 (9140) 62% (63%)
1419 751 (430) 63% (66%)
1420 840 (510) 66% (55%)
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
105.7 (107.6) 3318 (4481) 2012/02/14 03:00
 

Three regions counted today with a decrease in overall area . A big storm looks to be heading towards most of Europe in the next 48 hours.

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1416 9140 (11034) 63% (66%)
1419 430 66%
1420 510 55%
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
107.6 (109.4) 4481 (5169) 2012/02/13 03:00
 

One region counted today with  overall area increasing by a small amount. Region 1416 looks to have stabilized. Overall monthly activity remains low.

 

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1416 11034 (10335)  66% (70%)
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
109.4 (107.9) 5169 (5110) 2012/02/12 03:00
 

One region counted today with a big increase in overall area with new region 1416 growing quickly in the last 24 hours. Overall monthly activity remains low.

 

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1416 10335 (3758)  70%(65%)
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
107.9 (96.6) 5110 (1730) 2012/02/11 03:00
 

One region counted today with a reasonable increase in overall area with new region 1416 developing in the last 24 hours. I have produced a table of atmospheric metrics and explanation of recent events leading up to Europe's big freeze at the end of this article HERE.

 

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1416 3758 (940)  65%(79%)
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
96.6 (94.6) 1730 (628) 2012/02/10 03:00
 

One region counted today with a small increase in overall area. F10.7 flux dropping substantially.

 

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
New 940 79%
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
94.6 (104.3) 628 (233) 2012/02/09 03:00
 

The luck held out and we have a spotless day, there are some specks that failed to make the grade. Is this an indication of the weakness of the cycle or just a passing phase?

 

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
***SPOTLESS*** ***SPOTLESS*** ***SPOTLESS***
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
104.3 (108.9) 233 (777) 2012/02/08 03:00
 

One region counted today with overall area decreasing again. Todays spike in F10.7 flux is a result of a minor flare from 1410, two hours later the value returned to sub 100. Tomorrow will be an interesting day perhaps with the chance of a spotless day.

 

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1410 1820 (2584) 62% (62%)
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
108.9 (99.8) 777 (1250) 2012/02/07 03:00
 

One region counted today with overall area decreasing again but with some outlier growth on 1410. F10.7 flux now sub 100. A spotless day looking possible in the near future if lucky. Western Europe experiencing the power of the jet stream again today, the "Massive" winter is now confirmed?

 

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1410 2584 (2669) 62% (59%)
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
99.8 (104.0) 1250 (1341) 2012/02/06 03:00
 

Two regions counted today with overall area decreasing. F10.7 flux edging towards 100. A spotless day looking possible in the near future if lucky. Western Europe experiencing the power of the jet stream today.

 

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1410 2669 (3796) 59% (60%)
1413 415 (1042) 63% (60%)
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
104.0 (107.9) 1341 (2016) 2012/02/05 03:00
 

Two regions counted today with overall area and darkness decreasing sharply. World weather on the turn, Europe and Japan experiencing deep lows with many dead, big snow storms in Colorado and Australia setting flood records in two states. The AO has turned which if sustained will bring massive cold. Western Europe not looking good on the jet stream predictions in the next 24 hours.

 

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1410 3796 (4511) 60% (69%)
1413 1042 (1996) 60% (61%)
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
107.9 (114.6) 2016 (3045) 2012/02/04 03:00
 

 

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1410 4511 (4841) 69% (67%)
1413 1996 (3640) 61% (61%)
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
114.6 (114.1) 3045 (4004) 2012/02/03 03:00
 

Two regions counted today with a small increase in overall area. The monthly results are in, January somewhat lower than the past few months.

 

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1410 4841 (5133) 67% (66%)
1413 3640 (2089) 61% (62%)
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
114.1 (113.1) 4004 (3671) 2012/02/02 03:00
 

Two regions counted today with a small increase in overall area. The SIDC results should be available soon along with the LSC January report. Expect the blue line to go below the pink this month.

 

SDO Sunspot

NOAA Region #  
Pixels Darkness
1410 5133 (4183) 66% (68%)
1413 2089 (1628) 62% (64%)
F10.7  flux   DSN Date/Time UTC
113.1 (110.0) 3671 (3634) 2012/02/01 03:00
 

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