February News 2011

2011/02/28  08:00   1164 (pictured) growing again today and measures 2872 pixels (1922) and the darkness ratio dropping off to 55% (63%). 1163 & 1165 again both not making the grade at around 108 pixels each. The activity has died compared with earlier this month. February update available soon.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 88.7 (88.4), rising slowly. The DSN value for today is 1216  with the previous measurement at 966.   

2011/02/27  08:00   1164 (pictured) rotating further onto the face today and measures 1922 pixels (988) and a darkness ratio of 63% . 1163 & 1165 both not making the grade at around 130 pixels each. The polarity of 1164/63 is still in question. One more day and the month is over...the February result will be interesting.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 88.4 (86.4), rising slowly. The DSN value for today is 966  with the previous measurement at 544.   

2011/02/26  08:00  There are 3 new areas to measure today. 1164 looking the stronger (with more to come) and measures 988 pixels. 1163 does not make the grade at 219 pixels. A small group in the south measures 185 pixels. The polarity of 1164/63 is in question. The February rush has backed off somewhat?

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 86.4 (87.4), the latest figures showing a rise. The DSN value for today is 544  with the previous measurement at 68.   

2011/02/25  08:00  1161 and 1162 have both gone but there are two groups in the north just appearing. They are both under the threshold today, but the higher group will have much more potential tomorrow.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 87.0 (87.4), there should be a rise tomorrow. The DSN value for today is 68  with the previous measurement at 168.   

2011/02/24  08:00  1161 scraping through today and measures 485 pixels. 1162 measures 45 pixels. There is also another group just coming onto the face in the north, which looks like being a possible dual group again.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 87.4 (89.0), on the way back down again, and dropping as fast as it rose. The DSN value for today is 168  with the previous measurement at 783.   

2011/02/23  08:00   Limited activity today with tomorrow looking interesting.  1161 measures 1559 pixels (3209) and a darkness ratio of 55% (64%). 1162 measures 541 pixels (1030) and a darkness ratio of 61% (56%). There is a region on Stereo B that could be old area 1153 looming in the north that could show its strength very soon.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 89.0 (94.6), on the way back down again, and dropping as fast as it rose. The DSN value for today is 783 with the previous measurement at 1865.   

2011/02/22  08:00    Everything on the downsize today.  1161 measures 3209 pixels (4802) and a darkness ratio of 64% (67%). 1162 measures 1030 pixels (1804) and a darkness ratio of 56% (56%). There is a region on Stereo B that could be old area 1153 looming in the north that could show its strength very soon.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 94.6 (102.2), on the way back down again, and dropping as fast as it rose. The DSN value for today is 1865 with the previous measurement at 2943.   

2011/02/21  08:00      1161 taking a big hit to the area count today and measures 4802 pixels (7593) and a darkness ratio of 67% (66%). 1162 also dropping and measures 1804 pixels (2408) and a darkness ratio of 56% (64%). Both regions will be very weak tomorrow at this pace. The next few months will be a test of this cycle.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 102.2 (106.9), on the way back down again, how low will it go?The DSN value for today is 2943 with the previous measurement at 4758. The DSN being the true sunspot indicator remaining on the downslope. 

2011/02/20  08:00  1158 almost gone and measures 631 pixels (3837). 1161 has grown substantially today and measures 7593 pixels (4853) and a darkness ratio of 66% (67%). 1162 reducing in size and measures 2408 pixels (3403) and a darkness ratio of 64% (65%). Some activity on Stereo B in the north. 

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 106.9 (121.9), the last few days being a good example of how the flux value can move away from the sunspot number during flare activity.The DSN value for today is 4758 with the previous measurement at 5355. The DSN being the true sunspot indicator remaining on the downslope. 

2011/02/19  08:00  1158 approaching the western limb and measures 3837 pixels (6330) with a darkness ratio of 59% (62%). 1161 has grown slightly and measures 4853 pixels (4667) and a darkness ratio of 67% (67%). 1162 growing quickly and measures 3403 pixels (1638) and a darkness ratio of 65% (69%). The solar mumbo is strong but perhaps decreasing. 

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 121.9 (108.3), the flux along away above recent trends.The DSN value for today is 5355 with the previous measurement at 5692. The DSN being the true sunspot indicator remaining on the downslope. 

2011/02/18  08:00  1158 degrading again today and measures 6330 pixels (8447) with a darkness ratio of 62% (66%). 1161 has also fallen away slightly and measures 4667 pixels (4928) and a darkness ratio of 67% (61%). A new area above 1161 measures 1638 pixels and a darkness ratio of 69%. Seemingly no L&P effect right now? 

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 108.3 (111.4), the flux level enjoying a long awaited rise.The DSN value for today is 5692 with the previous measurement at 5974. The power looks to be dwindling now. 

2011/02/17  08:00  1158 degrading rapidly today and measures 8447 pixels (12781) with a darkness ratio of 66% (65%). 1161 has grown  slightly and measures 4928 pixels (4162) and a darkness ratio of 61% (68%). Will 1158 type regions be a common or rare occurrence in the coming months? 

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 111.4 (110.0), the flux level enjoying a long awaited rise.The DSN value for today is 5974 with the previous measurement at 7798. The power looks to be dwindling now. 

2011/02/16  08:00 The flare activity has eased somewhat with 1158 falling back slightly and measures 12781 pixels (14530) and a darkness ratio of 65% (67%). 1161 which was 1060 yesterday has grown substantially and measures 4162 pixels (831) and a darkness ratio of 68%. 1157 does not make the grade today.

 Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 110.0 (109.8), the flux level enjoying a long awaited rise. The DSN value for today is 7798 with the previous measurement at 7474. Another new record as we continue on the gentle upslope.

2011/02/15  08:00 Another big day on the Sun. I had clear skies for good viewing and we had our first X class flare of SC24. 1158 is a rare beast still growing and measures 14530 pixels (13254) and a darkness ratio of 67% (69%), 1158 is now the strongest group of SC24. 1157 has degraded again today and measures 489 pixels (1041) and a darkness ratio of 73% (71%). 1160 made up of many sub Wolf specks makes the grade at 831 pixels.

 Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 109.8 (104.1), the flux level enjoying a long awaited rise. The DSN value for today is 7474 with the previous measurement at 7011. Another new record as we continue on the gentle upslope.

2011/02/14  08:00 Some strong activity today that has also been observed during past grand minima. 1158 measures 13254 pixels (5773) and a darkness ratio of 69% (73%), 1158 is on par with the strongest group of SC24 recorded 12 months ago. 1157 has degraded today and measures 1041 pixels (1524) and a darkness ratio of 71% (69%). 

 Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 104.1 (93.1), 1158 being a dual region expected to a create big disruption... but we have a new record for SC24. The DSN value for today is 7011 with the previous measurement at 3858.    

2011/02/12  08:00  Activity is on the rise with 4 regions showing some form although not strong. 1156 has fallen below the threshold along with new region 1159. 1157 in the north scrapes through with 399 pixels and a darkness ratio of 64%. The strongest region 1158 measures 1338 pixels and a darkness ratio of 75% (strong). This may just be a flash in the pan with Stereo B looking weak. 

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 88.9 (89.0), the smaller regions proving a lot stronger than the larger unipolar action last month. The DSN value for today is 1082 with the previous measurement at 430.        

2011/02/11  08:00  Today is speck city, it should be booming today on a normal cycle. 1156 whimpered back to 359 pixels (665) and a darkness ratio of 72% (69%). Another new region in the south also just gets in with 364 pixels. 2 other speck regions are well beneath the threshold. The LSC threshold sometimes lets through speck regions like today that Wolf would not have counted (many minor specks making up a total), but it's swings and roundabouts.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 89.0 (86.4), the plage regions bumping up the gauge. The DSN value for today is 430 with the previous measurement at 373.        

2011/02/10  08:00  Only one region remaining today. 1156 increased to 665 pixels (388) and a darkness ratio of 69% (54%). 1157 has not passed the 24 hour rule and will not be counted today or yesterday. Old unipolar regions 1147 and 1149 are threatening to make a repeat appearance.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 86.4 (87.3), dropping again.  The DSN value for today is 373 with the previous measurement at 764.        

2011/02/09  08:00  Some February action today although only one region 1153 showing real form at present. It measures 924 pixels (715) with the darkness ratio at 67% (64%). 2 other regions just make the grade, 1156 at 388 pixels and a darkness ratio of 54% and 1157 at 385 pixels and 64%. Both are subject to the 24 hr rule. 1154 & 1155 are tiny and will not be counted.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 87.3 (80.1), a substantial rise.  The DSN value for today is 764 with the previous measurement at 470.        

2011/02/08  08:00  1153 is back for another go today as it nears the edge of the visible disk. The pixel area measures 715 with the darkness coming in at 64%. There were a number of other small speck regions that failed to make the grade. There is a new graph showing the frequency of large unipolar groups over SC24 for those interested.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 80.1 (78.0), remaining low.  The DSN value for today is 470 with the previous measurement at 85.        

2011/02/07  08:00  Day five spotless. There is one speck group in the north today attempting to make the grade but falling short at 183 pixels. Five days spotless two years into a cycle is significant. We might have to get used to this.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 78.0 (78.7), remaining low.  The DSN value for today is 85 with the previous measurement at 53.        

2011/02/06  08:00  Day four spotless. February is off to good start for those betting on a grand minimum. The solar wind is showing some form and there does look to be some activity on Stereo Behind heading our way but overall the cycle remains weak.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 78.7 (79.8), remaining low.  The DSN value for today is 53 with the previous measurement at 132.        

2011/02/05  08:00  The specks are coming and going lately. A new region in the south 1152 does not make the grade today and fails the 24 hour test. Therefore we are on our 3rd spotless day. Localized flooding in my area with over 200mm of rain...Snowzilla continuing in the USA with the UK getting ready for another hit soon.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 79.8 (78.1), remaining low.  The DSN value for today is 132 with the previous measurement at 453.        

2011/02/04  08:00  The specks are coming and going lately. A new region in the south 1152 is  making the grade today and measures 710 pixels with a darkness ratio of 79% (very dark). There are other speck regions under the threshold, but all regions looking weak at present on the magnetogram. There will be major flooding this weekend in Victoria (SE Australia) while the USA continues to be buried in snow.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 78.1 (77.0), remaining low.  The DSN value for today is 453 with the previous measurement at 225. Downgraded to spotless.     

2011/02/03  08:00  1150 is not making the grade today along with another speck group nearby. So we are once again back to spotless at this late stage in the cycle. The world temperatures have taken a dive with our current position near the 30 year average. I am expecting it to drop lower. The key feature to watch for over the next decade is for the 30 year mean temp value to occur during neutral ENSO periods.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 77.0 (77.6), too low.  The DSN value for today is 225 with the previous measurement at 366.        

2011/02/02  08:00  1150 has fallen off the perch today and measures 721 pixels (1647) with the darkness ratio rising to 70% (62%). The January figures are in, SIDC 19.0, NOAA (unadjusted & prelim) 32.2 and the LSC at 13.5. The grand minimum trend continues with SC24 continuing to undercut SC5.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 77.6 (78.9), too low.  The DSN value for today is 366 with the previous measurement at 719.        

2011/02/02  08:00  The world is experiencing some extremes today. cyclone Yasi that is now considered to be bigger than cyclone Katrina is about to hit northern Queensland. In the USA 100 million are affected by a mammoth blizzard. The Sun is playing a major role in the current weather extremes that most of the media and meteorological institutions are not aware of.The major influences are, the almost record La Nina along with the record extremes in the AO & AAO, which are polar atmospheric oscillations. These oscillations that are a product of low solar output that control the shape of the jet stream along with the intensity of the current La Nina. There will be more extremes to come in 2011.

2011/02/01  01:15  SDO lagging today so I am comprising with an earlier image. 1150 growing slowly and measures 1647 pixels (1495) with the darkness ratio at 62% (60%). The solar wind starting to pick up. The SIDC Jan figure is 19.0 with 3/4 of the activity in the north. There was a lot of specks last month so expect a larger divergence with the LSC for Jan. SC24 will further undercut SC5 this month.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 78.9 (80.2), the monthly flux value should remain fairly flat.  The DSN value for today is 719 with the previous measurement at 615.      Update: LSC January at 13.5