December News 2010

2010/12/31 8:00  After two weeks of virtually no activity we are now seeing a small revival. New unipolar region 1140 just appearing on the face as another region that shows some promise around the meridian in the north has also appeared. In later images there are another 2 small speck groups. December will be an interesting month, watch for the update soon. SDO starting to come back online, although still lagging. Previous DSN days updated soon.Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 80.2 (79.9), today's figure has jumped up to 87.9 . The DSN value for today is 955  with the previous measurement at 206. LSC December at 10.5.   

2010/12/30 8:00  We are back to spotless for a nice round off to the month/year which may last until tomorrow looking at the plage area without spots that is rotating onto the face. 1138 has fallen back and does not make the threshold today. NOAA named another speck 1139 that is gone already.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 79.9 (78.0), some large plage areas boosting the value . The DSN value for today is 206  with the previous measurement at 250.   

2010/12/29 8:00    1138 dropping off today and now measures 579  pixels (1057), this area is not strong at present. There is some strange activity showing on Stereo Behind that is about to come onto the face. December is shaping up to be a few unipolar groups and spotless days...expect a decline in sunspot numbers and maybe F10.7 flux.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 78.0 (77.4) . The DSN value for today is 250  with the previous measurement at 443.   

2010/12/28 8:00   SOHO has released some images which allow me to measure yesterday which came in above the threshold at 521 pixels. The spotless run stands at 11 days. Today NOAA calls a new region 1138 which replaces 1137 which is confusing and measures 1057 pixels with the magnetogram still looking weak. There is some strange activity showing on Stereo Behind that is about to come onto the face.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 77.4 (77.9) . The DSN value for today is 443  with the previous measurement at 169.   

2010/12/28 8:00   Today I updated the EUV graph which is current to December 10. The levels of EUV have not risen above the high point of Feb this year and in fact are showing a steady fall over the last several months. Because of the low output along with a lower base level this minimum, the current readings are on par with the lowest reading achieved during the SC22/23 minimum. I am expecting the levels to drop further as the update does not include the recent 11 day spotless run.

The height and density of the Thermosphere will also be affected, as the northern hemisphere continues with it's massive winter. Click on the thumbnail for a larger view.

2010/12/27 8:00   It's hard to know whether the spotless streak has ended. I am not able to measure with both satellites still down, hopefully there will be images. NOAA calling 1136 & 1137 with only 1137 viewable on GONG. Both groups are very small in area going via the NOAA measurement.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 77.9 (76.8) . The DSN value for today is 169  with the previous measurement at 264.   

2010/12/26 8:00   We are in the dark, all satellites still down while the northern hemisphere continues to break all time low temperature records. There are 2 speck groups that are unable to be measured...but they are very weak. Hopefully soon we will have some coverage. December will be very weak.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 76.8 (76.1) . The DSN value for today is 264  with the previous measurement at 116. Merry Christmas

2010/12/25 8:00    Everyone taking a holiday today with SDO, SOHO and Stereo Behind offline, the ground based GONG network providing the last line of defense. (cloud cover today not allowing my own telescope time). The result will need to be confirmed but another spotless day is likely although another small speck region has loomed in the north.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 76.1 (77.5) . The DSN value for today is 116  with the previous measurement at 71. Merry Christmas

2010/12/24 8:00   Day 9 in our spotless run, there is a couple of specks in the south that are not making the grade today and look weak on the magnetogram at present. SOHO providing coverage as the SDO and Stereo Behind remain offline.

Lots of extreme weather happening in both hemispheres today. There is a new article "Is the World Ready for Another Ice Age" here.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 77.5 (75.2), starting to rise. The DSN value for today is 71  with the previous measurement at 26. Merry Christmas

2010/12/23 8:00  The 8th day spotless, the specks from yesterday have vanished. The Sun is in another major funk. This is not normal for an active cycle and perhaps is as good as it gets this cycle?

Lots of extreme weather happening in both hemispheres today. There is a new article "Is the World Ready for Another Ice Age" here.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 75.2 (75.3), this is an amazing figure for 12 months into a ramp up. The DSN value for today is 26  with the previous measurement at 92. 

2010/12/22 8:00  The Stanford site is experiencing hardware problems which will delay us somewhat. We will rely on our backup SOHO satellite in the interim. Day 7 spotless, who would have thought? this far into the cycle. There are 2 regions of speck activity that fall below the threshold, we need to thank Wolf for establishing a reliable scientific method that works no matter what the Sun throws at us.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 75.3 (75.4), this is an amazing figure for 12 months into a ramp up. The DSN value for today is 92   with the previous measurement at 2. 

2010/12/21 8:00  We are now at day six in our spotless run, some action is building on Stereo Behind but whatever that turns out to be might be some days away.

The HMI Stanford is showing signs of recovery so hopefully we will have some images soon. Reports from both hemispheres showing massive and unexpected cold. Snow is 3 states here in Australia.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 75.4 (78.3), this is an amazing figure for 12 months into a ramp up. The DSN value for today is 2  with the previous measurement at 6. 

2010/12/20 8:00  Five Days in a row spotless is achieved 12 months after solar cycle 24 began it's ramp up.

The entire HMI Stanford server looks to be down. Fortunately we have practically nothing to measure. The back up satellite views are very blank. Reports from both hemispheres showing massive and unexpected cold. 

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 78.3 (78.0), a few more days of this will bring the monthly value down. The DSN value for today is 6  with the previous measurement at 1. 

2010/12/19 8:00    The SDO Stanford database is down again, so a proper update for the last 2 days is pending. But the current situation is 4 days spotless with a weak outlook in place. Solar cycle 24 is continuing to show signs that a normal ramp up is just not going to happen...meanwhile the northern hemisphere experiences cold like the LIA and in Australia we are expecting snow tomorrow.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 78.0 (81.4), another big drop. The DSN value for today is 1  with the previous measurement at 9. 

2010/12/18 8:00    The DSN value for today is 9  with the previous measurement at 43 

2010/12/17 8:00    Another spotless day recorded. This time last year we were witnessing what looked to be a solid start to a ramp up  of solar cycle 24. Things are very different today with SC24 looking very flat over 2010. Activity over the past few months also appears to be declining slowly. A small speck in the north and a new plage area appearing on the face today.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 81.4 (84.2), another big drop. The DSN value for today is 43  with the previous measurement at 110. Tomorrows update will be later than usual, but looking good for another spotless day. The F10.7 value dropping to 79.1

2010/12/16 8:00 1133  is still just visible but is under the threshold at 240 pixels. There is a small speck region measuring 83 pixels in the early northern region that shows some potential on the magnetogram. There is also another region on Stereo Behind about to rotate on that may be worth watching. Its cold in the NH right now, the predicted massive northern winter is beginning to happen.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 84.2 (87.5), on the way down again. The DSN value for today is 110  with the previous measurement at 214. 

2010/12/15 8:00 1133  is the remaining group which measures 646 pixels (1141) with the darkness ratio at 48% (58%). Of note is the sudden rise in F10.7 flux values as a major unipolar region leaves the face, so common it might be almost expected this cycle? The predicted massive northern winter is beginning to happen.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 87.5 (85.0), December so far not impressive on the flux scale. The DSN value for today is 214 with the previous measurement at 1536. 

2010/12/14 08:00    1131 should be close to gone tomorrow and measures 1814 pixels (3389) with the darkness ratio of 85% (82%).  Unipolar region 1133 (pictured) measures 1141 pixels (1683) with a darkness ratio of 58% (57%).  Speck regions 1134 & 1135 were numbered by NOAA but are both well under the threshold and will not be counted. At this middle stage of the month solar output has been very weak.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 85.0 (86.7), December so far not impressive on the flux scale. The DSN value for today is 1536  with the previous at 2775. 

2010/12/13 08:00    1131 almost gone and measures 3389 pixels (4851) with the darkness ratio of 82% (82%). Another unipolar region 1133 is also reducing and measures 1683 pixels (2241) with a darkness ratio of 57% (57%). A new region (pictured) is just under the threshold at 326 pixels, perhaps a new unipolar group in the making. Old unipolar region 1127 at this stage mainly a plage area with a few specks.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 86.7, (84.3), the large plage areas giving a boost? The DSN value for today is 2775  with the previous at 3631. 

2010/12/12 08:00    1131 rotating away and measures 4851 pixels (5990) with the darkness ratio of 82% (84%). Another unipolar region 1133 is also reducing naturally and measures 2241 pixels (2806) with a darkness ratio falling off to 57% (62%). Old unipolar region 1127 at this stage mainly a plage area with a few specks.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 84.3, (85.8). The DSN value for today is 3631  with the previous at 4678. Thanks Patrick for picking up yesterdays mistake.

2010/12/11 08:00    1131 reducing again today (perhaps naturally as the region rotates away) and measures 5990 pixels (6886) with the darkness ratio climbing to a dark 84% (79%), this may break the record again. Another unipolar region 1133 is also reducing naturally and measures 2806 pixels (2998) with a darkness ratio of 62% (65%). Both Neg sunspots have outlier specks, some of the ejecting material bonds with the same polarity to form short lived specks. Old unipolar region 1127 perhaps returning?

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 85.8 (84.2), little change. The DSN value for today is 4678     with the previous at 5132. 

2010/12/10 08:00    1131 falling off again today and measures 6886 pixels (7708) with the darkness ratio at a dark 79% (80%). Another unipolar region 1133 is still growing slowly and measures 2998 pixels (2960) with a darkness ratio of 65% (64%). There is a small speck region in the south.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 84.2 (84.6), little change. The DSN value for today is 5132   with the previous at 5570. 

2010/12/09 08:00    1131 now beginning to fall back and measures 7708 pixels (8018) with the darkness ratio at a very dark 80% (80%). Another unipolar region 1133 is still growing slowly and measures 2960 pixels (2789) with a darkness ratio of 64% (65%). 

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 84.6 (84.5), little change. The DSN value for today is 5570  with the previous at 5685. 

 This is a SDO magnetogram image of  1131 taken earlier today. 1131 is the largest unipolar/alpha spot observed so far during SC24. We are also experiencing a greater weighting of alpha spots than usual. I call these regions negative sunspots because they have the ability to actually reduce solar F10.7 flux and EUV output. If SC24 continues with an over abundance of Neg spots the flux and EUV values will remain at very low levels. Unipolar spots behave differently to the normal bi polar region, because they are singular the normal magnetic flow to another opposite polarity spot is restricted. As seen in today's image magnetic material is constantly flowing from the dark centre which meets existing opposite magnetic areas that cancel one another out.

2010/12/08 08:00   The unipolar regions are still ruling the solar landscape. 1131 is a massive unipolar region and now measures 8018 pixels (7935) with the darkness ratio at a very dark 80% (80%). Another unipolar region 1133 measures 2789 pixels (2529) with a darkness ratio of 65% (64%). 

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 84.5 (85.9), The negative sunspots increasing in size but the flux levels dropping. The DSN value for today is 5685  with the previous at 5504. 

2010/12/07 08:00   The unipolar regions are ruling the solar landscape, and yet no comment from established solar science?  1131 is a massive unipolar region and measures 7935 pixels (7389) with the darkness ratio at a very dark 80% (81%). Another unipolar region 1133 measures 2529 pixels (2133) with a darkness ratio of 64% (69%). The silence is deafening once more, a change of guard is approaching.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 85.9 (85.4), way too low. The DSN value for today is 5504     with the previous at 5115. 

2010/12/06 08:00   1131 is growing naturally as a result of being more straight on to our earthly view and measures 7389 pixels (6615) with the darkness ratio at 81% (81%). 1133 measures 2133 pixels (1539) with a darkness ratio of 69% (62%). 1132 has faded to basically nothing and will not be counted today or yesterday.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 85.4 (84.9), way too low. The DSN value for today is 5115    with the previous at 4553. 

2010/12/05 08:00    The SDO server is not updating, so I will post when available. But looking at the backup SOHO satellite and the Layman's real time telescopes the unipolar regions are dominating. 1131 today measured 89% on the SOHO darkness scale which is a SC24 high, there is no shortage of magnetic strength which should bury any L&P aspirations. Another new unipolar group along with a small central region will be reported on as soon as possible.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 84.9 (84.4), way too low. The DSN value for today is 4553   with the previous at 3673. 

2010/12/05 12:30   The SDO records are missing for 8:00 so we will be using 12:30 for today. 1131 (above) measures 6615 pixels (5361) with the darkness ratio at 81% (82%).

New area 1133 (pictured) measures 1539 pixels with a darkness ratio of 62%.

Another small new area 1132 just makes the grade at 384 pixels and is subject to the 24 hour rule.

Lots of growth in the DSN value but the F10.7 flux not moving much?

2010/12/04 08:00   1131 has increased, probably more so from the viewing angle and measures 5361 pixels (3915), but this may be the largest unipolar group for SC24 thus far. The darkness ratio measures a very dark 82% (81%). There are 3 unipolar groups right now, the silence is deafening from the solar science world? 1130 is just living and measures 499 pixels (1112). A new unipolar region measures 615 pixels. Another speck region measures 210 pixels.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 84.4 (84.1), way too low. The DSN value for today is 3673   with the previous at 2690, the flux will need to follow tomorrow. The DSN graph has been updated and also now goes back to Feb 1.  

2010/12/03 08:00   1131 has increased as it rotates further around the face and measures 3915 pixels (2219), the darkness ratio measures a very dark 81%. This region could be the darkest for SC24 so far, no sign of L&P lately?  1130 reducing dramatically again today and measures 1112 pixels (2646), the darkness ratio dropping to 51% (50%). Another speck region measures 181 pixels and seems to be fading.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 84.1 (84.1), stalled again, it should be rising. The DSN value for today is 2690  with the previous at 2168. The DSN graph has been updated and also now goes back to Feb 1.  

2010/12/02 08:00    Yet another large unipolar group has rotated on today, it measures 2219 pixels and it should be interesting to watch the F10.7 values this week. 1130 reducing dramatically today and measures 2646 pixels (5281), the darkness ratio dropping to 50% (56%). The Layman's Count comes in at 14.3 for November with the SIDC at 21.6. SC24 still undercutting SC5.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 84.1 (84.2), still low considering. The DSN value for today is 2168   with the previous at 2043. The DSN graph has been updated and also now goes back to Feb 1.  

2010/12/01 08:00    1130 growing slowly today and measures 5281 pixels (4809), the darkness ratio dropping slightly to 56% (58%). The SIDC figure is in for November at 21.6, this is the third month in a row showing a decline, showing the ramp up is not happening yet. Expect the same from the Layman's Count. UPDATE: What looks to be another large unipolar region is rotating onto the north face.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 84.2 (80.2), still low considering. The DSN value for today is 2043  with the previous at 1927. The DSN graph has been updated and also now goes back to Feb 1.  Layman's Nov count at 14.3