question

What modulates our Sun? The majority of science work on the principle that the Sun is self modulating and each solar cycle is a product of a random number generator. There are others that suspect the Sun is modulated by the planets with a special emphasis on Uranus & Neptune. Thanks to Carl Smith who has recently left us we have new knowledge that significantly adds to Jose, Landscheidt & Charvàtovà's work.

Geoff Sharp

July News

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 Sunspot 

2010/07/31 01:41   1092 is growing and now measures 274 pixels (187) and the darkness ratio dropping to a respectable 81% (87%).  1089 has faded to 2 (13). Month end is almost here with July showing a small revival .

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 85.9 (87.2) and a low of 85.1 (86.4) The DSN value for the today is 2221.4 with the previous at 1639.9. Updated DSN graphs HERE which now go back to March 1.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/30 03:52   1092 is now showing it's magnetic strength, the pixel reading is 187 (94) and the darkness ratio at 87% (74%). This is a new SC24 record, up on 82%, L&P hopefully will be viewing. 1089 has shrunk again to 13 pixels (99). The EUV values updated today that show a strong variance with the F10.7 values. Overall this month will show an increase, but not all that strong.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 87.2 (88.0) and a low of 86.4 (86.2) The DSN value for the today is 1639.9 with the previous at 1248. Updated DSN graphs HERE which now go back to March 1.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/28 23:20   1092 is a simple spot but appearing quite dark, the pixel reading is 94 (58) and the darkness ratio at 74% (78%). Will the darkness ratio hold up on rotation? 1089 has shown some regrowth and now measures 99 pixels (52) with a darkness ratio of 54% (58%).  

Today's adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 88.0 (85.2) and a low of 86.2 (84.1) The measurements suggesting a willingness for an overall increase but as yet not quite pulling it off. Updated DSN graphs HERE which now go back to March 1.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/28 09:30  The new region looking dark at first light, the pixel reading is 58 and a darkness ratio of 78%.  1089 has strengthened slightly and now measures 61 pixels (52) with a rising darkness ratio of 66% (58%). There is also a single speck region in the south. 

The DSN value for today is 856 (752.6). Updated DSN graphs HERE which now go back to March 1. The solar wind increasing again and reaching higher speed.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/28 01:30   SOHO is back, the downtime most likely a result of regular maintenance. 1089 measures 52 pixels (175 two days ago) with a darkness ratio of 58% (63% two days ago). 1090/1 will not be counted. There is a substantial area just rotating onto the face in the north.

Yesterday's adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 85.2 (87.2) and a low of 84.1 (86.8). The DSN value for the 26th is 1142.5. Updated DSN graphs HERE which now go back to March 1. The solar wind moving to good speed.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/27 11:00 (SDO)  SOHO is still not operating correctly, the last image is 36 hours old. The SDO image which is not measurable showing a steady decline of 1089. NOAA finding a speck somewhere (1091) that has since disappeared. From today I will be showing the previous reading in brackets just after the latest reading for ease of use. Thanks Mike for the suggestion.A new article on the expected northern hemisphere cooling here.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 87.2 (88.2) and a low of 86.8 (87.7) for yesterday. Today's DSN value is still to be measured (no image at present). Updated DSN graphs HERE which now go back to March 1. The solar wind moving to good speed.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/26 12:00  SOHO is down again but looking at the SDO images 1089 appears to be shrinking dramatically. Area 1090 looks to have disappeared. Old area 1084 remaining a plage with still unknown polarity.

A new article on the expected northern hemisphere cooling here.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 88.2 and a low of 87.7 for yesterday, practically no change. Today's DSN value is still to be measured (no image at present). Updated DSN graphs HERE which now go back to March 1. The DSN value I think showing the clear difference in activity.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/25 09:30  1089 reducing further to 216 pixels but as a result the darkness ratio building to 64% which is still lower than the 70% reading recorded earlier today. 1090 called by NOAA in the north which currently measures 8 pixels. The other speck regions have been ignored but may appear later in the SIDC count. Old region 1084 with unknown polarity appearing as a plage in the south?

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 87.9 and a low of 87.7 for yesterday, the flux value further coming off its high. Today's DSN value is 1412.8  . Updated DSN graphs HERE which now go back to March 1. The DSN value I think showing the clear difference in activity.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/24 11:27 Not a lot of images again today, 1089 is dropping back slightly with a pixel reading of 234. The darkness ratio has strengthened a little, now up to 62%. There are 4 new areas with a single speck that have the potential for the NOAA count to get close to 100, we will see.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 89.2 and a low of 88.5 for yesterday, the flux value coming off its high. Today's DSN value is 1453.8, yesterdays value may need to be a calculated average. Updated DSN graphs HERE which now go back to  March 1. The DSN value I think showing the clear difference in activity.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/23 00:04 Not a lot of images today but 1089 looks to be stagnating. The pixel count is 264 and the darkness ratio dropping to 57%. This group may have run its race with the darkness ratio perhaps showing an overall weakness in the pipeline? The return of 1084 is not looking very likely which as a single spot had a lot more punch than the current group.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 91.5 and a low of 90.5 for yesterday, a drop from the previous, the extended flux values more likely a product of 3 large plage areas. Yesterday's DSN value is 1379.4 . Updated DSN graphs HERE which gives a good perspective on reality.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/22 01:29 1089 growing slowly now to 262 pixels. The darkness ratio rising to 60% which is still not strong. The southern hemisphere lately appearing to regain some strength. Old area 1084 according to Stereo B may have disappeared?

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 92.4 and a low of 92.0 for yesterday, the flux levels getting close to the highs recorded in this years first quarter.. Yesterday's DSN value is 1259.7 . Updated DSN graphs HERE.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/21 10:35  New area 1089 growing substantially to 221 pixels. The darkness ratio measures a weak 57% at this early stage. The magnetic structure suggesting this group might be around for awhile although the darkness ratio not showing a lot of strength so far.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 90.2 and a low of 86.7 for yesterday, a big jump on the previous reading. Yesterday's DSN value is 337.5 . Updated DSN graphs HERE.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/20 00:22  New area 1089 (CL203) not allowing yesterday to be counted as spotless. Old area 1084 (CL145) if still going should be behind this region. 1089 measuring 36 pixels. 1087 in the north has a speck or two and still contributing to yesterday's NOAA count.

 The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 83.9 and a low of 82.1 for yesterday, a reasonable rise. Yesterday's DSN value is 7 . Updated DSN graphs HERE.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/19 02:52  Today has begun spotless, but there has been a new speck region in the north that is perhaps spent already. The second region coming onto the face in south as shown on the SDO magnetogram is showing some promise. But still the overall strength feeling weak this month.

 The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 79.4 and a low of 79.3 for yesterday, dropping back to low levels. Yesterday's DSN value is 7 . Updated DSN graphs HERE.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/18 01:02  SOHO back with us,1087 decaying rapidly back to 24 pixels, which is just over the threshold.The darkness ratio at 63%. The return of the once reversed polarity region 1084 is imminent. What will "Cyclops" have in store this rotation?

Overall activity still considered low.

 The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 81.3 and a low of 78.8 for yesterday, back on the upramp again. Yesterday's DSN value is 290.40 . Updated DSN graphs HERE.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/16 04:00  1087 today falling back slightly, some of the associated faint specks fading away. The pixel count has dropped a small amount to 80. The darkness ratio as a result climbing back to 65%. The big mover today is the F10.7 flux dropping nearly 6 points from the previous high. 1084 is gearing up for a return on Stereo B, along with another possible passenger.

 The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 79.6 and a low of 74.4 for yesterday, showing a big fall. Today's DSN value is 520 . Updated DSN graphs HERE.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/15 09:59  1087 growing by a few pixels to 88. The darkness ratio dropping to 59%. The magnetic area on the Magnetogram is huge, which is paying dividends to the F10.7 Flux & UV records but a weak showing on the sunspot number. This can be a symptom of returning regions. July so far not looking at all strong, some hope in the south via Stereo B?

 Today's DSN value is 519.2 which is a gradual decline over the past 5 days.

Updated DSN graphs HERE.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/15 00:59 The SOHO website was down yesterday but now up and running. 1087 has reduced further in size and measures 83 pixels. The darkness ratio is at 61%. Although there has been a rise in activity so far this month the level of activity is still way below earlier this year. The DSN graphs showing this clearly.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 84.5 and a low of 79.3 for yesterday, showing a rise and fall. Yesterday's DSN value is 613.6. Updated DSN graphs HERE.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/13 03:35 1087 has shrunk in size today and now measures 116 pixels. The group has consolidated with a lot of the smaller specks disappearing. As a result the darkness ratio has risen slightly to 62%. NOAA deciding not to call the speck region in the south which has now almost faded, there is most likely a valid reason for the perceived inconsistency, which to me is not apparent.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 82.6 and a low of 82.1 for yesterday, a noticeable drop in one day. Today's DSN value is 719.2. Updated DSN graphs HERE.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/12 17:36 1087 remaining the same and measuring 135 pixels. The darkness ratio has dropped back to 59% which suggests a further weakening.

The speck activity in the south shrinking to 3 pixels but still capable of getting a NOAA number at the next update.

Today's adjusted F10.7 flux figures starting to head down to the 82 value.

Today's DSN value is 799.5. DSN graphs HERE.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/12 00:00 Only one image available from SOHO today at 00:00. The SDO images are suggesting a falling back of activity on both the Continuum and Magnetogram. In particular the magnetic intensity looks to be reducing from the high part of region 1087. The speck region in the south has not yet been called by NOAA and is around 10 pixels with a weak underlying structure.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 84.7 and a low of 84.5 for yesterday, a strengthening on the bottom end only. Today's DSN value is not available yet . DSN graphs HERE.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/11 08:00  1087  growing to 130 pixels.The darkness ratio has also grown slowly to 67% which at this stage is a shadow of 1084. The top part of this area looks to be the newer growth area on the magnetogram which right now is not super impressive. Tomorrow could be different. The dark pixel at the top of this group is a broken pixel on SOHO and has not been measured. 

New SDO images available on the sidebar.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 84.7 and a low of 82.3 for yesterday, a good rise that may be sustained for awhile. Today's DSN value is 871 . DSN graphs HERE.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/10 20:48  1087 (CL334) now beginning to show some form arising from the large underlying magnetic structure. The pixel count has risen to 86 and the darkness ratio is measured at 63%. 1087 becomes the 5th recurring region, but does it have the same strength of others before it? 

New SDO images available on the sidebar.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures have risen again to 84.7.

  DSN graphs HERE.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/10 08:00  1087 called by NOAA which is a return of the very weak 1082. The plage area is extremely bright and covers the area roughly of Jupiter. The pixel reading is 18 with no darkness recorded. SDO showing some consolidation of the region that may build. Today remains spotless so far. One cant help sit back and question if this is normal?

New SDO images available on the sidebar.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 82.7 and a low of 78.5 for yesterday, a big rise showing the inconsistency between SSN and F10.7 Flux. Today's DSN value is 18 . DSN graphs HERE.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/09 06:24  There are a couple of speck zones but as yet nothing that can be counted. A large bright plage area which is probably 1082 region (which was little more than speck activity on the frontside) returning. There is potential for more growth but so far not looking strong. If this area does not perform, more questions will be asked.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 78.3 and a low of 77.4 for yesterday, another reasonable increase, the Flux activity of late out being out of step with sunspot activity. Today's DSN value is 1 . DSN graphs HERE.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/08 08:00   1084 almost gone. This single spot has been the most memorable for me of SC24, sure there has been others that were 4 times bigger in area but 1084 came on instantly (a return of 1078) and never faulted as it rotated off. It recorded the highest darkness ratio along with L&P's highest ever gauss reading for SC24 (3020), all this for a reverse polarity spot that returned back to correct polarity before leaving...will it return? Spotless tomorrow, but maybe not for long.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 76.9 and a low of 75.7 for yesterday, a slight increase. Today's DSN value is 279.3 . DSN graphs HERE.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/07 08:00   1084 now at 85 pixels with the darkness ratio staying at a high of 73%, 1086 has all but disappeared and will not influence the Layman's Count. For the past seven days we have an average sunspot number of 7. The solar wind has been on a reasonable high of late but sinking back to basic lows again. Today I updated the UV graph, which like its twin brother the F10.7 Flux continues to look weak and going against the trend expected during a cycle up ramp. 1084 polarity now non reversed?

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 75.2 and a low of 74.7 for yesterday, basically no change but still low. Today's DSN value is 620.5 . DSN graphs HERE.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/06 06:24   1084 now at 124 pixels with the darkness ratio staying at a high of 79%, this spot has been something out of the box. 1086 not showing any form and measures 7 pixels.

The area in the north on Stereo B still looking like a player.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 75.2 and a low of 75.0 for yesterday, and small rise. 

Today's DSN value is 1009 . DSN graphs HERE.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/05 06:24   1084 slipping back to 153 pixels but remaining at 81% darkness ratio. 1086 has been called by NOAA in the north and measures 18 pixels at this stage.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 74.6 and a low of 73.8 for yesterday, which is now showing signs of further decline. 

Today's DSN value is 1349.1 . DSN graphs HERE.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/04 08:00   1084 reducing slightly and now measuring 173 pixels. The darkness ratio has risen to a quite dark 81%, showing no signs of giving up yet. The Stereo Behind satellite is displaying a bright region on the farside that will be worth following. There is a small speck region in the north measuring 3 pixels, the area at present not showing any potential.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 75.0 and a low of 74.8 for yesterday, which is now showing signs of further decline. 

Today's DSN value is 1404.3 . DSN graphs HERE.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/03 08:00   1084 maintaining a very steady record. This area raising many questions. Mainstream solar physics not saying much as this very dark reversed polarity spot tracks its path. The pixel measurement at 190 and a darkness ratio of 79% showing little loss in form. I hope L&P get a measure on this one as there are no specks to cloud the issue.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 75.9 and a low of 75.7 for yesterday, practically no change. 

Today's DSN value is 1501 . DSN graphs HERE.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/02 08:00   1084 now measuring 196 pixels almost on the meridian. The darkness ratio dropping back to 77%. The outlook for more activity is not looking strong. SC24 needs a boost to exceed SC5.

The solar wind has been riding an unfamiliar wave of reasonable speed, perhaps a remnant of the early quite strong activity of 2010?

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 75.6 and a low of 75.3 for yesterday, practically no change. 

Today's DSN value is 1509.2 . DSN graphs HERE.

 

 Sunspot 

2010/07/01 00:00   1084 still growing and now measuring 190 pixels and the darkness ratio at 82% which is a new high for SC24. No lacking of magnetic intensity here.

The monthly figures are in: NOAA est at 18, SIDC 13.5 & the Layman's Count at 8.5. If my calculations are right NOAA appearing to reverse form. SC24 now undercutting SC5!

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 76.3 and a low of 75.3 for yesterday, a very small rise on the previous count. 

Today's DSN value is 1584 . DSN graphs HERE.

 

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October 09 News

November 09 News

December 09 News

January 10 News

February 10 News

March 10 News

April 10 News

May 10 News

June 10 News

OFFICIAL LAYMAN'S COUNT JULY:

July has seen a pickup in activity which is shown in all indices. The Speck activity was also high. Only 4 groups were active but were long lived allowing only one spotless day. The darkness ratio reached yet another record high (87%) which I expect to increase as we approach solar maximum. Next month may show another rise which is well within current expectations.

SC24 still undercutting  SC5.

Layman's monthly mean at 12.9

SIDC monthly mean at 16.1

NOAA monthly mean at  23.1

SIDC 2010 spotless days - 32

Layman's 2010 spotless days - 63

This month there are 15 days of difference between the Layman's Count and SIDC. The SIDC counting many specks this month making the process difficult.

The Darkness Ratio  being recorded for three groups this month.

The solar wind having some good speed due to coronal holes.

Last Years Spotless Records.

SIDC 2009 spotless days - 261

Layman's 2009 spotless days - 314

Layman's spotless days June 2008 - June 2009 - 349


 

Many thanks go to Carl's brother Dave for providing the Domain, Server and Software.