June News

2010/06/30 08:00   1084 has grown slowly to 171 pixels, some of that may be due to the natural increase when approaching the meridian. This simple alpha spot with reversed polarity is now measuring 80% on the darkness scale...the magnetic intensity continues to show high results. NOAA calling speck group 1085 that lasted for 24 hours. Month end tomorrow, should be interesting.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 76.0 and a low of 75.8 for yesterday, a very small decline on the previous count. 

Today's DSN value is 1386. DSN graphs for the previous 3 months available tomorrow.

The Darkness ratio is a good proxy for the magnetic strength of a particular region. The L&P theory tells us this strength is weakening and according to their forecast will make sunspots invisible by 2015. I have measured every cycle 24 spot that made the grade at their peak and plotted the result. The L&P method is hap hazard and this year has only measured one significant group. Last April SOHO had problems for 2 days which made measuring difficult, which has since been resolved, we are now able to measure group 1060 which comes in at a new high of 84%. The darkness graph speaking for itself. Click on the image for a full sized view. Correction 1060 was removed from the graph as it did not sustain 23 pixels.

2010/06/29 06:24   1084 now measuring 136 pixels, there is not a lot of growth from this region suggesting a down grade in readings soon. The darkness ratio is at 73% coming off 77% earlier. The darkness graph continuing to show an upward slope. There is another speck group measuring 11 pixels in the south.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 76.4 and a low of 76.2 for yesterday, a small rise after the previous dip. The solar wind trying to make the grade but still falling short.

Today's DSN value is 1053.30. DSN graphs available at month end.

2010/06/28 08:00  1084 starting to show some promise. This is indeed a weird region, the flux levels on the decrease for the time being but the magnetic readings on the increase. The pixel area is 108 and the darkness ratio climbing to 69% .... judging by the magnetogram I think there is more to come. Once again is L&P measuring this group?

We are getting close to the end of the month...the SC5/SC24 comparison graph might be interesting this month.

Today's DSN value is 745.20. DSN graphs available at month end.

2010/06/28 00:40  1084 (CL145) has finally been called by NOAA, this group looks to be a remnant of 1078 (CL141) which was rather complex in its magnetic makeup at the time giving a hint of reversed polarity. The new region has now evolved into to a reversed polarity group for SC24 and is noted for is large size amongst previous reversed regions. The pixel count is 94 and the darkness ratio measures 67% which is perhaps lower than expected. 

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 75.5 and a low of 75.1 for yesterday, a big drop considering the associated plage. The Flux graph continuing to be of interest.    

2010/06/27 06:24 new region (1084) is showing some quite different form. I single spot with perhaps some depth. The early readings are 67 pixels and 57% darkness ratio. This close to the limb is not always accurate, this spot may give us some more. The early suggestion is reversed polarity...could be big news, NOAA not counting this spot yesterday adding to the controversy.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 77.1 and a low of 76.3 for yesterday, no real change. The Flux graph continuing to be of interest.   

 Today's DSN value is 381.90 . 

2010/06/26 03:57 A new region is rotating onto the eastern limb, its hard to say if this is a recurring region but we should know in the next day or so. We haven't seen too many formed regions like this, with most coming to life after rotating onto the visible face. There is another speck area trying to form not far away in the south.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 76.9 and a low of 76.9 for yesterday, a small fall. The Flux graph continuing to be of interest.   

 Today's DSN value is 140.4 . 

2010/06/25 06:24 Heading into the 2nd day of spotless, 1082 is just 4 pixels with at least 2 other areas of very faint specks that some might have a field day with. There is quite a bit of activity heading our way, perhaps a bonanza of specks in the pipeline?

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 77.2 and a low of 76.9 for yesterday, showing another rise. The Flux graph continuing to be of interest.   

 Today's DSN value is 10. 

2010/06/24 20:48 A few more hours to go and we will have another spotless day to add to June. 1082 is in decay and just measuring a few pixels, the plage areas dominating the face and also adding to the F10.7 Flux level. Today is a good example of how the Flux value can move away from the Sunspot value during speck activity. A few more spotless days for June and we should see cycle 24 begin to undercut cycle 5.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 76.7 and a low of 76.2 for yesterday, showing another rise. The Flux graph continuing to be of interest.   Today's DSN value is 30. 

2010/06/23 07:17  1082 fluctuating during the past 24 hours and now rising back up to 23 pixels, right on the threshold. The darkness ratio falling back to 65%. The fluctuation perhaps coming from the twin core that represents this group.

Old area's 1076,1078,1077 &1073 so far just appearing as plage as they rotate onto the face.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 75.7 and a low of 75.4 for yesterday, showing another rise, possibly a result of the new plage regions. The Flux graph continuing to be of interest. Today's DSN value is 149.50.  

2010/06/22 08:17   1082  breaking up and falling back to 24 pixels, just above the threshold. The darkness ratio rising back to a strong value of 71%. A darkness ratio this high for such a small region is telling a story.

Old area's 1076,1078,1077 &1073 about to rotate onto the face, its been sometime since we had a recurring region.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 74.4 and a low of 73.3 for yesterday, showing a moderate rise. The Flux graph continuing to be of interest. Today's DSN value is 170.40.  

2010/06/21 08:15  NOAA deciding to label the current region as a rebirth of 1082 (CL305) which I find surprising. Although very close the magnetogram was suggesting a different region. The area has shrunk from yesterday and now measures 39 pixels confirming the weak area prediction. The darkness ratio also falling back but still measuring a respectable 69%. The distance between the 2 spots growing noticeably.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 72.3 and a low of 72.2 for yesterday, a very slight rise. The Flux graph continuing to be of interest.  Today's DSN value is 269.10.  

2010/06/20 08:03  Today's new area has grown quickly to 56 pixels, the underlying magnetic area at this stage not looking overly strong(area). The big news is the darkness ratio begins at an unprecedented 80% which puts more pressure on the L&P theory. SC24 may prove to be weak but we should still witness a growth in spots and their magnetic strength approaching cycle max. 1082 has almost disappeared and measures zero. The spotless run should be 6 days.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures not complete for yesterday but in the 71 range showing an amazing Flux graph. Today's DSN value is 448. The darkness ratio boosting the number.

2010/06/20 00:00  A fresh day begins spotless which if the current form continues will make 7 days in a row. 1082 has fallen back to 2 pixels with newly numbered region 1083 already disappearing. Another speck area is showing right next to 1082 and currently measures 11 pixels. The rash of specks continuing the apparent slide in activity since the first quarter of 2010.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures not complete for yesterday but in the 71 range showing an amazing Flux graph. The solar wind has returned back to its near minimum level.

Yesterdays DSN value was 65.92. NOAA sunspot # 28, Layman's 0

2010/06/18 19:12  NOAA region 1082 continues to survive as speck activity and measures just 8 pixels. A new speck in the north near the meridian has appeared and measures 10 pixels but as yet has not received a number. The NOAA count for today currently sitting on 16, which should rise again. The Layman's Count for today will most likely be zero. To be fair NOAA has always counted sunspots in the same manner but many people are unaware of the different counting methods. The major solar websites should perhaps educate their readers in regard to the inflated NOAA sunspot number they display.

Today's DSN value is 30.

2010/06/18 00:00 SOHO dragging their heals today, the GONG images at 12:24 suggesting the small specks in the north are not making the grade. The magnetogram is showing some growth in the NOAA region 1082, but the jury is still out. Overall activity is extremely weak.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 72.9 and a low of 72.6 for yesterday, a decline in readings which is contributing to a very sad F10.7 Flux graph.

Today's DSN value is on hold. 

2010/06/17 06:24 The Sun remains quiet, now heading into the fourth spotless day, we are supposed to be on a steady incline according to the majority of solar experts. The solar wind maintaining its so far unimpressive high considering the size of the recent coronal rift. 

There are a few specks in the north trying to gain traction, tomorrow should answer the question.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 73.9 and a low of 73.3 for yesterday, a very slight rise on the previous recording.

Today's DSN value is 0.

2010/06/16 06:56  Another spotless day in progress. The solar wind receiving its kick as expected. The unexplained phenomena I mentioned yesterday may not be of relevance, perhaps the F10.7 Flux and sunspots numbers remain in sync...more to follow.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 73.3 and a low of 72.3 for yesterday, another big drop on the previous values, the Flux graph is starting to look interesting. We should be expecting another small ramp up soon, but not looking likely right now..

Today's DSN value is 0.

2010/06/15 08:15  The Sun is totally blank at present except for a few plage areas. These plage areas might be worth investigating, they could hold some answers to some of the unexplained phenomena that are occurring during the past half cycle. I have a new graph at the end of my L&P article that some might find interesting.

Today's DSN value is 0, once we get a few months data I will start posting some graphs on this measure. Also considering taking on the huge task of going backwards to measure SC24.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 75.4 and a low of 74.3 for yesterday, a big drop on the previous values.

2010/06/14 00:00  The beginning of a new day that starts spotless, will it be the same in 24 hours?  1081 has now shrunk to 13 pixels and the groups in the south have rotated off the face.

Yesterdays DSN was 289.80

UPDATE 8:00: Todays DSN value is 0

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 78.9 and a low of 77.6 for yesterday, still on the increase.

2010/06/13 00:00  SOHO is experiencing problems today. A full update will be available once connection is resumed. GONG suggesting little activity with a chance of spotless tomorrow.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 76.5 and a low of 76.2 for yesterday, perhaps starting to think about a decline?.

2010/06/12 06:24  1081(CL98) now measuring 45 pixels, it was larger some hours back but maybe the M class flare robbed it of some energy. The darkness ratio measures 51%, dropping 10%.

1080 has also dropped and now measures 21 pixels with a darkness ratio of 48%, 1079 has returned and measures 2 pixels and a DR of 50%. The large coronal rift is pointing this way, expect some solar wind speed soon. The first DSN value is 340.3, a low reading perhaps?

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 77.0 and a low of 75.8 for yesterday, a "decent" rise on the previous readings.

2010/06/11 19:12 New area 1081 has consolidated from the earlier speck activity and grown to 33 pixels. The darkness ratio measures 61%.

I will be implementing a new counting method from today that will run in conjunction with the Layman's Count. It will be an area based method but taking into consideration the darkness or magnetic strength. This is an alternative method which intends to accurately measure area and magnetic strength which should alleviate the current problems with speck counting. A daily reading around 8:00 UTC will measure solar face pixel area and darkness, these will be combined to produce a DSN value (Daily Sharp Number) :)

2010/06/11 19:12 1080 now dropping back to 37 pixels, the darkness ratio also dropping back to 54%. Overall activity still feels weak but that wont be reflected in today's sunspot count. The DSN will be a better gauge of the true spot strength and may be a useful value when comparing with the F10.7Flux.

The DSN formula: pixel area value x darkness percentage ie the current spot would be 37 x 5.4 = 199.8

The DSN method will not use the 23 pixel or 24 hour rule but will use the same green channel readings from the Layman's Count and darkness ratio methods.

2010/06/11 08:22 1078 is almost gone and hard to measure put still a counter for today. All of the activity happening in the same longitude region today. What is to follow will be interesting.

Today I went through many images of SC23 and compared the NOAA count to today. Both NOAA & SIDC are consistent with their counting methods and the gap between them is constant. But they are still counting specks which is different from the the Wolf method of the Dalton, but there does not look to be any change in their methods.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 75.2 and a low of 74.8 for yesterday, a small rise on the previous readings.

2010/06/11 08:22 1080 is growing slowly and measures 65 pixels, the darkness ratio is at 60% but coming off 63% earlier today.

There was a lot of confusion around this area today. Most pundits including myself had assumed the speck area 1079 was 1080, maybe it was a matter of timing and made confusing because 1079 was a tiny area that only lasted a few hours.

There are 2 more speck areas in the north that might gain attention later if still around.

2010/06/10 06:24 Region 1078 (CL141) which like 1079 is not mentioned in the NOAA daily update, looks to have a number. NOAA perhaps changing their reporting style? 1078 remaining the same at 129 pixels and will be rotated off the face very soon. The majority of activity swinging back to the south.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 74.4 and a low of 73.7 for yesterday, remaining the same.

UPDATE: 11th 00:50 NOAA calling 1080. Most of the world confused. Some confusion with 1079 looking at the coordinates.

2010/06/10 06:24 1080 (CL107) called very early by NOAA, currently measuring 13 pixels with 2 other specks nearby (1079). The speck count will grossly overstate the last 2 days readings.

I have been looking back at some of the activity during SC23 max which shows many large regions along with many specks mixed in. It might be interesting to see how the count values compare to today, I will post a story soon.

There is a big coronal rift approaching which should provide a boost to the solar wind in a few days.

2010/06/09 08:02 The still to be numbered region has risen slightly to 129 pixels. The darkness ratio falling to 55%. There is also a trailing speck that looks weak. 

To recap on May's monthly mean, NOAA 19.9, SIDC 8.8 & the Layman's at 4.2. If the NOAA count is not revised it will show a huge divergence last month, the speck counting is getting out of control. Click on the graph to view the stats, the flux values I think showing the way. The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 74.6 and a low of 72.8 for yesterday, on the up.

2010/06/08 20:48 The earlier speck activity has now formed into a pixel area of 90, it should be numbered 1078 in an hour or so. The darkness ratio measuring a healthy 66%. The magnetogram for this area is strong suggesting further growth, although it does appear to be reverse polarity (SC25 spots not possible this early). 2 other areas that are single specks are also showing some potential.

The adjusted F10.7 Flux taking a jump up to 74.0. NOAA finally releasing their May monthly mean at a staggering 19.9 (misprint?), the flux figures giving a hint on who is more accurate.

UPDATE: NOAA deciding not to number the new region?

2010/06/08 08:00 Lots of speck activity coming & going today, the region in the south measuring 18 pixels thus far. During these times all sorts of solar records are distorted, but we have not seen these conditions before with our new measuring equipment. 

Nicola Scafetta has a new paper, an article HERE showing how his work is merging with what is proposed at Landscheidt.info.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 70.6 and a low of 70.1 for yesterday, continuing way low.

2010/06/07 07:16 Today we begin spotless again, there is another speck forming in the north but the overall activity is extremely low. Yesterday we dipped below 70 on the adjusted F10.7 flux scale, the sunspot number and flux number are way too low at this point in the cycle to be called normal.

But on the same day NASA gives us hype about wild solar activity on the horizon?

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 70.3 and a low of 69.8 for yesterday, way low.

2010/06/06 01:36 1076 just holding on and may dip below the threshold tomorrow. At present the area is 32 pixels, with the small speck activity in the north fading away. A good chance at another spotless day tomorrow.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 72.4and a low of 71.6 for yesterday, displaying a big drop off over the last 2 days.

UPDATE: NOAA calling 1077, a tiny speck lasting 24 hours. This elevates their daily count to 25.

2010/06/04 08:00 1076 looking to have past its peak now reading 158 pixels with a darkness ratio of 65%. Although not strong the southern hemisphere is showing signs of a revival. There is some very weak speck activity in the north trying to take hold. 

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 77.4and a low of 76.9 for yesterday, a slight rise again.

2010/06/03 08:00 1076 moving up another 100 pixels again and now measuring  263 pixels,  the darkness ratio consolidating back to a respectable 70%. I measure the whole region when considering its darkness, it seems that L&P measure individual parts of the group  which drags down the magnetic count significantly, there is much more to this story as it unfolds HERE

I have just started incorporating NOAA monthly values in my monthly report and I am quickly learning its a waiting game...as soon as the official figures are at hand I will finish May. The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 76.7and a low of 75.2 for yesterday, a slight rise considering the activity.

2010/06/02 20:48 1076 jumping up over a 100 pixels and now measuring  173 pixels,  the darkness ratio has dropped off to 59%. The early high reading on this spot perhaps giving away its potential. New data is showing the L&P effect may be suspect HERE

The underlying magnetic field has also strengthened.

NOAA are dragging their heels today preventing a full Layman's update for May. Hopefully some results tomorrow. The adjusted F10.7 flux figures have risen a couple of points in today's early readings.

2010/06/01 20:48 1076 rising slightly to 58 pixels, but the darkness ratio continues to rise to 74%. For a small group it is packing a punch in the black region, L&P will probably miss this one which is once again detracting from their study. The darkness ratio graph is updated and showing a further climb, this spot will add more fuel to the fire.

NOAA are dragging their heels today preventing a full Layman's update for May. Hopefully some results tomorrow. The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 74.9 and a low of 74.6 for yesterday, still remaining flat.

2010/06/01 20:48 1076 (CL194) in the south has risen in area to 47 pixels, the darkness ratio measuring an astounding 72%. 1076 will probably pass the 24 hour rule ending the spotless run at 3 days, there is a good chance another will follow soon.

The Layman's monthly mean for May is 4.2, SIDC 8.8 & still waiting on NOAA. The SIDC doing a lousy job this month looking to be moving away from their normal conservative footing and aligning more with NOAA.

More updates through the day to follow.

2010/06/01 08:16 There was another NOAA spot labeled today (1076) which at this moment measures 18 pixels. It was a new upwelling in the south that looks weak, and there is another region below it as well trying to form. The south is a strange place right now. NOAA going all out trying to pump the cycle, with the SIDC coming in with an 8.8 count for the month. The Layman's Count tomorrow will be substantially lower.

The solar wind coming off the bump received by the recent coronal hole.The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 74.7and a low of 74.1 for yesterday, still remaining flat.

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