May News

2010/05/31 08:00 Another spotless day racks up, this month has not produced with only 2 main regions and the rest spotless. NOAA continuing to look outrageous with another high count while the Layman's Count stays at zero.

The outlook is bleak and will require a new upwelling to generate interest, with both the Magnetogram and Stereo Behind looking like a solar desert.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 75.0 and a low of 75.0 for yesterday, still remaining flat

2010/05/30 06:24 At this stage we are still spotless. NOAA have given labels to 3 speck groups 1073(CL192), 1074(CL284) & 1075(CL229) with the latter providing the largest pixel count at 16. There is further potential today for a giant gap in recording standards. During these times the obvious difference between methods is easily seen. The speck activity beginning to form a pattern.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 75.7 and a low of 75.6 for yesterday, still remaining flat.

UPDATE: NOAA sunspot count for 30th at 40. Layman's at 0

2010/05/29 09:24 Today did begin spotless, and to this point remains the same. But 4 specks emerged during the day, with the southern appearance being  the strongest at 11 pixels. There is potential for a very high NOAA count with this sort of speck activity. The speck activity continues to dominate which poses a big question, was the first 3 months of 2010 a false start or are we just in an ebb before the onslaught?  No one can say. The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 75.3 and a low of 74.7 for yesterday, a very slight increase.

UPDATE: NOAA sunspot count for 29th at 43. Layman's at 0

2010/05/28 08:00 Region 1072 shrinking down to 24 pixels, tomorrow will most likely begin spotless.

May is heading towards another low monthly number, it will most certainly be under 5. If June follows the same trend there will be more stories appearing in the blogosphere. We are in a very different place compared with Feb/March which had 3 triple recurring regions with area counts above 800 pixels.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 74.8 and a low of 74.2 for yesterday, still remaining flat.

2010/05/27 08:00 Region 1072 falling back further to 67pixels. The darkness ratio dropping back to 52%. Overall a fairly poor performer considering the large gap in activity. Yesterdays speck has faded and also remains uncounted by NOAA, and there is not much in the pipeline according to the Stereo B. This suggests another spotless run on the way.

The solar wind keeping low but there is a slight chance of a weakening coronal hole giving it a bump in a few days.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 74.7 and a low of 74.3 for yesterday, still remaining flat.

2010/05/26 08:00 Region 1072 on the decline and now measuring 108 pixels. The darkness ratio dropping back to a respectable 63%. Yesterdays speck on the outgoing limb looks to have escaped a number, but there is another speck in the north around the meridian that measured around 7 pixels 8 hours earlier. It now has nearly disappeared with the underlying magnetic structure looking weak on the GONG magnetogram. Yesterdays NOAA sunspot count at 16 ?

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 75.1 and a low of 74.0 for yesterday, which is staying around the same value over the last few days.

2010/05/25 08:00 Region 1072 has fallen back to 131 pixels. The darkness ratio holding out at a steady 70%. SOHO is not going to be around forever, the SDO Continuum images at present are not of a standard suitable for measurement. Today I emailed W. Pesnell of NASA asking what we can expect from the SDO team, I am quietly confident they have matters in hand.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 75.0 and a low of 74.4 for yesterday, a small dropoff from the previous values. There is a small speck appearing on the outgoing face, hopefully it won't be counted by the registered agencies.

2010/05/24 08:00 Region 1072 now shrinking on a fast pace. The pixel reading is 157 but the darkness ratio has climbed to an impressive 71%, I cant see any diminishing contrast values of cycle 24 so far, if anything it has increased. The L&P hoohaa is not bearing fruit by my measurements.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 76.4 and a low of 74.6 for yesterday, these values should drop off once again as 1072 fragments, barring any new activity. There is a lot of expert commentary recently on the expected global cooling in the pipeline. The next 3 months should prove interesting.

2010/05/23 08:00 Region 1072 has grown to 240 pixels, but was at 248 pixels a few hours ago. The darkness ratio measures 62%. The solar wind remaining low after a brief run around the 500 km/s area.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 74.5 and a low of 74.1 for yesterday, there are indications this group may have passed it's peak, but the Sun is a fickle place.

2010/05/22 09:36  Region 1072 has expanded slightly and measures 141 pixels, the darkness ratio has fallen back to 58% after reaching 70% a few hours ago, the darkness values still refuse to show a decline. The longitude of this group is the same as Recurring Region 3 in the north which can still be seen on the magnetogram. The latitude of 1072 at about 10 deg is edging toward the equator.

There is some possible activity looming on Stereo Behind, but the overall strength does not feel strong.

2010/05/21 20:48  Region 1072 (CL319) now showing some form, its been some time since we had a decent region to measure in the south. The pixel area is at 103 and the darkness ratio is 60%. A new plage area has also rotated onto the face in the north.

This ends the spotless run which measured 13 days.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 72.6 and a low of 71.9 for today, rising with the visual activity.

2010/05/20 20:48  A new region has appeared quickly in the south, at present it measures 13 pixels . The SOHO magnetogram lagging behind but the GONG images showing a reasonably robust area suggesting further growth.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures remaining around 70.4.

2010/05/21 00:00 Update: Some small growth experienced and now measuring 15 pixels. At this stage the spotless run continues. 

2010/05/20 08:00  Day 13, with 20 days not looking that far off. A large coronal hole is approaching on Stereo B along with 2 areas that show possible future action.. Updates for today include the adding of SC14 to the SC5/SC24 graph, which puts everything in perceptive. Also I have added the F10.7 Flux values to the Layman's/SIDC/NOAA comparison graph, it will be interesting to see how it tracks through the cycle.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 70.4 and a low of 69.9 for yesterday, further proof of a flattening rather than a up ramp.

2010/05/19 07:57  Day 12, the next few days look clear but there is a small bright area in the north that will rotate onto the face by the weekend. Maybe it might give a boost to the flailing F10.7 Flux values?

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 70.3 and a low of 69.4 for yesterday, the plage areas not managing to keep the readings above 70. David Archibald will be pleased. I have added the NOAA values to the monthly mean comparison graph and positioned it near the top of the page...thanks to those who suggested.Today we clocked up 30,000 reads

2010/05/18 08:00  Day 11, questions must be asked. This kind of lull is  unexpected in a normal ramp up. If this pattern continues towards my prediction NASA will probably make some kind of statement. This month will be most likely lower than the previous, with SIDC this week showing zero. Scroll down over the daily record below to get a feeling on the last 50 days.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 70.8 and a low of 70.3 for yesterday, the plage activity will keep it stable for the time being. The solar wind remaining low, past cycles at this point see big gains in the solar wind speed.

2010/05/17 08:00  The Sun remains blank, with some widespread plage areas forming. Day 10 looking strong with not much happening on Stereo B. The magnetogram is looking like a flash back from the deep solar minimum of about a year ago.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 70.6 and a low of 70.0 for yesterday, the very weak plage activity might stop it dipping into the 60's?

The solar wind remaining low and probably will for some time.

2010/05/16 00:00  The Sun remains blank, so I havent missed much. Now entering day 9, being nearly halfway to my prediction of 20 spotless days. The bright area on Stereo B appearing as a small plage at present. Some trying to discredit my SC5/SC24 graph on other forums....interesting to watch them squirm.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 71.8 and a low of 70.6 for yesterday, bumping along the bottom.

2010/05/15 00:00 

2010/05/14 00.00  Day 7 begins with the F10.7 flux almost dropping through the 70 barrier. This value will return the F10.7 graph back to solar minimum conditions, which is also in keeping with the recorded Layman's Sunspot Count. The other institutions showing a large variance between the F10.7 Flux and the daily sunspot number.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 70.9 and a low of 70.4 for yesterday, the massive falls continue.

I will be away for 2 days....hoping there will be no major news.

2010/05/13 08:00 Day 6 heading for 20?....time will tell, the big story today is the very low level of the F10.7 flux. The very low adjusted level measured yesterday is not what is expected at this stage of the typical ramp up  of a solar cycle of the past century. But I suspect we all know this will not be a typical cycle. At some stage I will make a comparison graph of cycle 14, which should prove very different.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 73.0 and a low of 72.5 for yesterday, demonstrating a substantial fall, if it goes lower today a few eyebrows might be raised..

2010/05/12 01:51 The spotless drought goes into day 5, the last run of 26 days has only 4 days between this spotless period. Is anyone game to make a prediction on this run? I will guess 20 days. 

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 75.0 and a low of 74.2 for yesterday, a slight decrease on the previous reading.

2010/05/11 08:00 Another day without activity, which seems to be the norm lately. Day 4 is in progress with more days expected. It's way too early to call, but perhaps we are witnessing the beginning of the Landscheidt Minimum?

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 75.1 and a low of 74.8 for yesterday, another big drop after yesterdays big fall.

2010/05/10 06:49 Day 3 clicking over with not much to look forward to on the horizon. There is a hint of some form of activity starting to appear on Stereo Behind in the north. The south remaining quiet again.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 78.0 and a low of 76.7 for yesterday, representing a significant fall.

2010/05/09 06:46 Day 2 for the next spotless period gets underway, the solar wind getting back to the usual low levels but perhaps some coronal activity on the way.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 80.3 and a low of 79.8 for yesterday, basically no change..

2010/05/08 08:25 Another spotless run about to begin?. 1069 is less than 10 pixels with nothing else to measure on the face. Fresh activity is required as Stereo B looks far from promising. My gut feel is a fairly long sunspot drought on the way.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 80.5 and a low of 79.8 for yesterday, a small decrease.

2010/05/07 08:00 1069 Now measuring 10 pixels, this very high latitude group is nothing special. There is a single pixel speck in the south that will probably gain 11 points from NOAA today. Stereo Behind looks like a solar desert requiring a new upwelling to improve the bleak outlook, we look to be going spotless again.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 80.7 and a low of 80.1 for yesterday, displaying a severe downgrade.

2010/05/06 06:47 1069 falling back to 57 pixels. The darkness ratio has fallen back again to 58%. All the other regions incl 1070(CL 192) have faded to nothing, but the NOAA count for yesterday is 77. To explain the different counting methods, NOAA is a pure unadjusted Wolf count which counts all activity, The SIDC overlook some specks and discount the raw reading by multiplying the count by approx 0.6. The original Wolf count of the last grand minimum was discounted by about 0.6 and did not count specks....this is the same as the Layman's count. Our count for yesterday is around 12.  The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 85.4 and a low of 83.8 for yesterday, the upward trend continues.

2010/05/05 08:00 1069 growing in area and now measuring 92 pixels. The darkness ratio has fallen back to 68%. NOAA today managed to count 70 sunspots (10 for the group, and 1 for each spot in that group). The Layman's count today will be based on the SIDC record for active regions that make the grade, which should be somewhere close to 10. Over the last 2 days the NOAA count is 131, the Layman's count at around 10 shows the clear difference in counting methods.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 84.8 and a low of 82.8 for yesterday, 1069 raising the bar by a fair margin.

2010/05/05 08:00 1067 continuing to show little promise with a pixel reading of 7. A new area nearby measures 12 pixels and will most likely get a number later in the day. The magnetogram is behind and shows no activity underneath this region, so its hard to gauge its potential.

Stereo Behind is showing no expected activity on the horizon, what does this month have in store for us?

2010/05/04 20:48 A new region high in the north that has been trying to form over the last 24 hours has finally given us something we can measure, NOAA will number it 1069 in a few hours (CL 225). The area measures 46 pixels and has a darkness ratio of 78%, this is the highest darkness reading of SC24 to date, putting further pressure on the L&P theory.

If this area is maintained for 24 hours the spotless run will end at 26 days.There is another similar area (1066) on the magnetnogram in the south that is not producing spots.

2010/05/04 07:19 Such extraordinary times, the solar face is covered in specks with the NOAA sunspot count reaching an unbelievable 61. They also numbered new region 1068 (CL 135) which measures 0 pixels. None of the regions since 1061 have made the grade resulting in another day added to the spotless streak, now running at 27 days.

Wolf would be turning in his grave right now, he didn't count the specks during the Dalton Minimum and nor should we.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 81.6 and a low of 80.9 for yesterday, the specks driving up the reading slightly.

2010/05/03 02:35 After nearly a month of spotless days the solar face  continues to be peppered with speck activity. This puts us in unknown territory, we need to go back to Wolf's methods to get a scientific comparison. NOAA & SIDC are not following this method that recorded the last grand minimum 210 years ago. 

This month the bias is becoming very obvious, the Layman's Count comes in at a staggering 2.7, the NOAA monthly mean for April is 11.2, with the SIDC coming in at 7.9. Some of the SIDC daily counts requiring detailed explanation. Perhaps another body is required to regulate the so called experts in this arena? 

2010/05/03 02:35 Specks galore, 1067 is measuring 23 pixels but subject to the 24 hour rule, 1066 is measuring 14 pixels. 1064 did not make the grade & 1065 was zero. A new region showing on GONG at 2 o'clock (which could be 1063) is providing another opportunity. The Carrington longitude for each as follows. (1064, 223) (1065, 241) (1066, 209) (1067, 170).

The solar wind gaining new strength from the coronal hole delivered via decayed Region 1. The adjusted F10.7 Flux edging up over 80. Update 2010/05/03 13:21: 1066 measuring 30 pixels, 1067 falling back to 19 pixels.

2010/05/02 05:29 There is lots more continuing speck activity that NOAA and now to some extent the SIDC are having a field day with. During these unusual times the scientific record is being butchered. 1064 achieved 13 pixels and only lasted a few hours, there are 2 other regions that may attract attention from NOAA that are not measurable so far.

The NOAA monthly mean for April is 11.2. The SIDC coming in at 7.9 which is suggesting a shift from their normally conservative recording. The Layman's April count will be much lower this month. Full update in the next 24-48 hours. Meanwhile the Layman spotless streak is at 25 days.

2010/05/01 09:29 I am on the road tonight and will do a full measure tomorrow. 1064 looking at this stage to not make the grade. 

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