March News

2010/03/31 05:32  1057 decaying rapidly falling back 100 pixels to 349 pixels. The darkness ratio remaining at the record high of 77%. There is some unusual activity on Stereo B but maybe not too much in store for the next few days?

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 83.1 and a low of 81.4 for yesterday continuing the decent slowly. I was listening to a podcast today from NASA saying they still don't understand the origin of the F10.7 flux and the length of the sunspot cycle....at least they are honest.

2010/03/31 05:32  1059 1 pixel less than yesterday at 136 pixels. The darkness ratio dropping back substantially to 56% from 69% in one day. The two current regions performing very different in each hemisphere.

The current trend is firmly in the north, which is not uncommon, the last time we saw this type of dominance was SC20 according to the SIDC. SC20 was a low cycle....this one should be much lower.

2010/03/30 10:24  1057 falling back further to 449 pixels. The darkness ratio rebounding to a SC24 high of 77%. The rising darkness of the current spots is very obvious compared with previous activity. The expected new activity coming onto the face in the north at this stage presenting plage status.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 83.3 and a low of 82.3 for yesterday keeping in pace with activity. The actual readings now agreeing with the adjusted readings at this time of year allowing no room for error.

2010/03/30 10:24  1059 growing slightly to 137 pixels. The darkness ratio gaining further strength at 69%. The area growth is probably a result of the region rotating closer to SOHO suggesting very little growth.

The end of month process looming, March will no doubt be lower in activity compared with Jan/Feb. The spot activity will be down but the darkness ratio or magnetic strength looks to be on the rise as expected.

2010/03/29 09:51  1057 reducing to 524 pixels. The darkness ratio staying strong at 75%. The current crop of sunspots look to be elevating to another level which continue to pressure the L&P theory.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 85.7 and a low of 84.2 for yesterday showing a reasonable reduction considering the dark regions involved.

2010/03/29 09:51  1059 growing slightly to 120 pixels. The darkness ratio measuring a reasonable 65%. This region will need to perform to gain confidence in a southern revival, which will be needed if SC24 is going to hit the NASA predictions.

The solar wind beginning to drop off again towards the not uncommon low readings, but that is also observed in the last cycle. SDO making noises about firing up the long awaited images very soon....stay tuned.

2010/03/28 09:36  1057 has added about 100 pixels now measuring 660. The darkness ratio still strong at 76%. This is another example of the upswing in magnetic activity that needs to be measured by L&P. The trend should still rise during a grand minimum.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 87.8 and a low of 85.5 for yesterday, these values not reflecting the overall activity.

2010/03/28 09:36  1059 is not overly large but showing a similar darkness pattern to 1057 , the pixel reading at 78. The last couple of regions showing early growth along with strong darkness readings which correspond with magnetic readings. The Carrington Longitude is 267 (close to old region 1)

The solar wind reviving a little from near zero readings but still not showing strong form.

2010/03/27 00:00  1057 growing slowly to 566 pixels as it becomes more square on to SOHO. This region is different to what we have seen before this cycle, it came on very early and has 2 distinct poles and measures the highest ranking on the darkness ratio scale still measuring 77% (L&P need to be measuring this one). There is another region in the south showing early form on the east limb. NOAA looking foolish with their 1058 prediction.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 85.5 and a low of 84.0 for yesterday, which is a decline as the pixel area and darkness ratio increases.

2010/03/26 08:00  1057 now rising to 500 pixels. The current darkness ratio sitting at 71%, down from 73% a few hours earlier. There is a chance the darkness ratio could climb higher. The south is still lagging behind.

NOAA calling new region 1058 that measures a zero pixel count? They must have a nice crystal ball?

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 87.9 and a low of 85.9 for today, the low reading being the latest. The solar wind showing a modest uptick. UPDATE: Darkness ratio at 16:00 at 77%

2010/03/24 17:25  1057 rotating onto the face and now measures 292 pixels. The darkness ratio is at 65%, the Carrington Longitude is 319. The north continues to dominate with Region 2 in the south at this stage looking to be dead. Stereo B showing some activity on its way in the south perhaps?

 The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 83.9 and a low of 83.4 for today. The solar wind still bumping along the bottom.

2010/03/23 22:24 I am back after some severe hardware problems, but all good again.1056 has disappeared but new region 1057 is showing very strong activity as it comes on to the face which has been rare this cycle. This will put an end to some of the "fence" or hot zone theories perhaps. 1057 is measuring roughly 78 pixels.

 The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 83.3 and a low of 80.9 for today. The solar wind has almost stopped!

2010/03/22 08:16 1056 now on the decline with a pixel reading of 79. The darkness ratio measuring 56%. Region 2 did show a speck or two which has now subsided. There is a small region on Stereo B in the north that may be worth watching.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 84.7 and a low of 82.9 for yesterday, which showed a slight rise before falling back to the previous low.

The solar wind is just escaping the gravitational pull of the Sun, but looking to rise.

2010/03/21 00:00 1056 has grown in area to a reading of 140 pixels. The darkness ratio is at a very low 40%. Region 2 looming with a large plage area at present.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 82.8 and a low of 82.6 for yesterday, continuing the downward trend.

UPDATE: The 19th of March according to the Layman's rules is declared spotless. This gives a current total of 7 days for March.

2010/03/20 09:51 I have been away, but the fun continues.1054 has disappeared and 1056 has also been below 23 pixels. There is a slim chance we have had a Layman's spotless day but I need to check. 1056 has repeated a familiar trend and now is at 61 pixels..start off weak but rebuild later. Region 2 is starting to appear, will it have a surprise in store?

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 83.7 and a low of 82.7 for today, 1056 showing the rise that the flux figures was suggesting. The general trend over the last couple of days has been down again, but now showing signs of a revival.

2010/03/17 22:24 1054 now measuring 60 pixels with the darkness ratio at 42%. I have compared this regions Carrington Longitude to Region 1 values and there is about 100 deg difference (149 compared to an average of 250 for Region 1 ) I have added the Carrington Longitudes to the recurring regions table.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 86.5 and a low of 85.3 for today, which is a fair uptick on yesterday. Perhaps 1056 is about to grow?

2010/03/17 22:24 1056 has been numbered by NOAA and measures 32 pixels. The Carrington Longitude is 64. I will be recording the Longitude of all regions from now on.

2010/03/17 04:48 1054 diminishing quickly to 148 pixels with the darkness ratio dropping back dramatically to 59%. There is a new group trying to form on the east limb (left hand side) in the northern hemisphere which shows some potential on the magnetogram, currently measuring about 7 pixels.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 84.6 and a low of 82.8 for yesterday, continuing the downward trend. Lets watch for a possible rise tomorrow which may herald activity from the new region, this happened before 1054 started its growth.

2010/03/16 00:47 1054 falling back further to 358 pixels with the darkness ratio increasing again from yesterday back up to 72%. This group has shown a lot of similarity to the groups belonging to Region 1, and perhaps maybe linked. Region 1 appears to have drifted right during its history but perhaps now 1054 has returned to a similar position as 1035? I will check the Carrington longitudes and report back.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 87.3 and a low of 84.0 for yesterday, the slide continues.

2010/03/15 00:54 1054 has reduced back to 577 pixels with the darkness ratio increasing back up to 70%. The darkness ratio has fluctuated substantially in the life of this group.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 89.3 and a low of 85.7 for yesterday, the expected downturn showing a reasonable reduction.

2010/03/14 08:16 1054 now measures 784 pixels (dropping back from 828 pixels earlier) with the darkness ratio dropping back dramatically to 62%, suggesting the peak may have been reached. Region 1 looks to be expired but has been replaced by a new region in the north with similar strength, the south yet to respond.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 90.7 and a low of 89.2 for yesterday, today could provide a downturn on these figures?

2010/03/13 01:36 1054 has continued to increase in size and now measures 682 pixels. There are 2 factors standing out. The northern hemisphere continues to dominate with 1055 fading to zero, and the darkness ratio of 1054 is visually extreme and measures in at 74%. This group must put some pressure on the L&P theory?

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 88.5 and a low of 85.9 for yesterday, which is climbing but perhaps lower than expected for this type of activity?

2010/03/12 08:39 1054 has shown solid growth and measures a respectable value of 435 pixels, the darkness ratio also showing strength at 68%. Hopefully L&P are measuring the important dark spots that are occurring this year?

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 83.1.9 and a low of 80.5 for yesterday. A steady increase.

2010/03/12 08:39 1055 is reducing in area and now no longer makes the grade with a pixel count of 22. Once again the difference in hemisphere strength is clear.

The southern hemisphere has a couple of regions loaded on the farside, they will need to produce decent pixel figures if any confidence in SC24 is to be maintained (by some) during these very early days of the cycle.

The solar wind reporting some strength at 500 km/s, but will require sustained values over 700 km/s before it can be taken seriously.

2010/03/11 10:25  SOHO Continuum is back online, 1054 measures 148 pixels with a darkness ratio of 51%. This brand new group shows a lot more potential than 1055 in the south and with the apparent demise of region 1 & 2 the new groups are now carrying the can.

The next week will give us a good indication of how this month will figure compared to Jan/Feb which had 2 strong regions with high readings around 900 pixels. The task is somewhat daunting perhaps?

2010/03/11 10:25  new region 1055 has a much weaker magnetic structure compared to 1054 at this stage. The south will need to improve greatly if this cycle is going to show signs of a decent ramp up.

This region has a pixel reading of 53 and a darkness ratio of 42%.

The observed "hot zones" or fences look to be non players in this recent activity.

2010/03/11 06:55  The spotless run has finished with the arrival of 2 new spot groups. 1054 has been numbered by NOAA while 1055 will receive a number later today. SOHO Continuum images are down, so a pixel count is out for the time being. Our official spotless run will be 6 days.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 79.3 and a low of 77.7 for yesterday, rising sharply with the sunspot activity. The solar wind has also risen to around 500 km/s.

2010/03/10 09:36  The spotless run continues...we are now into the 7th day. The SIDC has released preliminary results for the 1st week and like the NOAA count show strong figures for the 4th & 5th of Feb which had very minor speck activity underneath the Layman's Count threshold. There will be some divergence this month unless the SIDC adjust back to a reasonable figure at the end of the month.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 76.8 and a low of 75.3 for yesterday, showing a slight increase going against the sunspot trend.

2010/03/09 08:44  The fifth spotless day in a row racks up with the sixth looking very likely. The current activity is a world away from the past two months and will gain interest if the spotless period continues.

Region 1 remains weak but the last couple of regions grew in strength as they were leaving the face. Stereo Behind does not look to offer much at present.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 75.9 and a low of 75.0 for yesterday, representing little change. Very interesting times.

2010/03/08 10:14  Activity has been extremely weak with not a lot to report, which in itself is of supreme interest. Region 1 has to date only been up to speck level with a current reading over the whole region of 14. We are now into our 5th day of zero sunspots with no regions on the horizon to save us.....we could get a very active region tomorrow but the signs are not promising right now. The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 76.3 and a low of 74.5 for yesterday, we are starting to get close to absolute minimum readings. The solar wind is also at rock bottom again.

2010/03/06 01:34  We have now had 2 spotless days and possibly looking to increase that figure. NOAA"s daily count has been over 70 for the past 2 days comparing with zero for the Layman's Count. 

Region 1 is the big story over the past few days, has it died or will we get an outburst very soon? The existing magnetic structure is weak, currently the trend is weakening overall. GONG farside is showing activity behind....but has also been unreliable in the past.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures recorded a high of 78.2 and a low of 76.3 for yesterday, now on a slippery slope.

2010/03/03 04:44  1051 is continuing to just hold out above the cut off zone with a pixel reading of 26. A few points lower and we would have had 2 days spotless. 1052/3 have remained weak and at this point are non counters. The "hot zone" so far has not had an affect on 1051.

Region 1 showing only plage activity at present.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures show a high of 78.6 and a low of 77.3 for yesterday, a slim upgrade. The solar wind getting above 400km/s with a bit more to go to reach SIDC's prediction. February figures are in for the Layman's Count. (scroll down to near bottom)

2010/03/02 04:14  1051 is just making the grade with a rising pixel reading of 29. The region has dipped below the 23 pixel cutoff point, but is now close to the moving "zone of activity " observed in previous groups. The big test of the zone coming in the next 24 hours.

Region 1 is well onto the face and at present is just plage activity...the tension builds.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures show a high of 77.8 and a low of 76.5 for yesterday, status quo for now.

2010/03/02 04:14   1052,1053 failing to make the count so far. Going by the average recent activity the combined longitude would suggest little chance of a revival, but we have seen some growth in the south recently at this longitude. 1052 measuring 19 pixels and 1053 at 18 pixels.

There is a significant difference in counting methods between us and NOAA. Yesterday NOAA's count was 47, the Layman's count will be about 8. Looking at their cousins (GISS etc) perhaps its time for NOAA to recalibrate?

2010/03/01 17:36   Today is a good day to do a comparison of sunspot counting methods. NOAA has called two new regions 1052,1053 that are currently speck activity in the south. Their count for today is 47 which is grossly overstated. 1052 will need to maintain its pixel count for 24 hours before any of the regions will be counted according to the Layman's method. Usually the SIDC count will be slightly higher than the Layman's count but is updated at the end of the month. The SIDC figures are in for Feb, the monthly mean is 18.6. The Layman's Count coming in at 16.8.  There is a lot of data to check this month, the Layman's Count is
expected to be fully updated in the next 24 hours.

2010/03/01 11:30  The SOHO images are about 24 hours behind but the GONG images show 1051 in a state of limbo. There is some speck activity in the southern hemisphere that is just observable. The focus now is on Region 1 and what it has in store, the next return will give us a better understanding on where this cycle is heading.

The SIDC figures are in for Feb, the monthly mean is 18.6. There will be expected further reduction to the Layman's Count. The SIDC has also predicted the solar wind to rise above 500 km/s shortly....The adjusted F10.7 flux figures show a high of 77.6 and a low of 75.9 for yesterday, still on the decline.

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