February News

2010/02/28 00:00  1051 remaining completely static, a single spot measuring 62 pixels with a darkness ratio of 52%. But we have to wait for Carrington longitude 35 deg before we can right this one off. Region 1 not looking overly bright....but it has fooled us before.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures show a high of 77.6 and a low of 76.9 for yesterday. Getting close to real solar minimum figures again, will Region 1 come to the rescue?

2010/02/26 05:19  1050 now barely making the grade with a pixel reading of 25. The more up to date images of GONG show a further weakening. Region 2 at present looks to be still in a weak state and will probably not be a counter tomorrow.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures show a high of 81.3 and a low of 79.3 for today. The downward trend continues.

2010/02/26 05:19 1051 is still remaining fairly static with a pixel reading of 64 . 1050 came to life at a Carrington longitude of around 35 deg which is just past the middle, this could be interesting. If there is a "hot zone" that feeds the active regions the trend has been moving to the east (right) which should eventually move it off the face in the coming months. The Earth's rotation would suggest the opposite, so if this is a solar phenomenon it must be moving...pure conjecture at the moment.

Region 1 is not far away and should provide us with some more interesting data.

2010/02/25 09:53  1050 has not shown any strength and now measures 48 pixels. Will this be the last showing of the weakening Region 2?

Region 1 is looming with unclear intentions....the stage is set.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures show a high of 81.7 and a low of 80.5 for today, this is quite a downgrade from yesterday.

2010/02/25 09:53 1051 is remaining fairly static with a pixel reading of 65 . The background magnetic area is small but the area has not hit the "hot zone" yet. If this group grows dramatically near the meridian some further research may be required.

Region 2 activity is certainly on the decline, Region 1 performing in the opposite direction. Will the trend continue or has Region 1 passed its peak?

2010/02/24 08:15  1050 is probably a recurrence of Region 2 but has shown little growth. The region now has a reading of 78 pixels and a darkness ratio of 53%. Region 1 has had 3 large groups that have grown each time towards 900 pixels. Region 2 has shown a decline over 3 rotations towards a very meager total as we see today.

Region 1 is currently showing what looks to be a double front on Stereo B..more fun to come perhaps?

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures show a high of 84.0 and a low of 82.2 for today, suggesting a slight upswing.

2010/02/24 08:15   A new group is forming at about 9:30 on the clock. The initial readings are at 44 pixels. This area was hi lighted by observatory Catania as a re appearance of 1043, which looks incorrect and has now been withdrawn (1043 lat 25, 1051 lat 18). There have been several groups lately that have been countable as soon as they have been visible on the frontside, which shows some movement away from the recent longitudinal growth   pattern. Having said that, there does seem to be an acceleration point that has been drifting right in recent months. More data is needed. 1049 will not be counted today.

2010/02/23 16:23   A new group 1050 has formed 5 hours before this continuum update measuring 64 pixels and a darkness ratio of 41%. Whether this group belongs to Region 2 is debatable judging by the configuration, size and latitude?

1049 is almost on the farside and measures around 25 pixels, it may not be a counter tomorrow.

Region 1 shows little change on Stereo B

2010/02/22 22:24  1049 has shown a slight regrowth and now sits at 43 pixels. This area might be worth watching on the next revolution. Region 1 is appearing on Stereo B and this time around there are some differences. The 2 images display at this stage quite difference brightness and area, the next couple of days will give us a better view. Also the distance between Region 1 & 2 looks to be getting shorter suggesting that Region 1 is continuing its expansion in an easterly direction. The time between appearances now at around 25-26 days. Notice the different position of Region 2....The adjusted F10.7 flux figures show a high of 81.9 and a low of 81.7 for today. The SIDC figures showing an estimated February sunspot count of 20.2 with one week to go.

2010/02/22 06:24  1049 is now on its last legs with a pixel count of 28. I think most would agree there has been a decrease in activity but still wait the return of Region 1. At present Region 1 is coming into view on Stereo B and tomorrow we might get a better idea of the underlying strength. 

 Region 2 looks to be dead in the water, which if so is significant. The north can play hardball for the rest of the cycle but without the other half of the Sun participating the game will be over.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures show a high of 83.1 and a low of 80.6 for yesterday. There is some speck activity at 11 o'clock.

2010/02/21 09:36  1049 is now showing signs of reduction. The pixel count is 61 with a darkness ratio of 53% 

 Region 2 still not showing potential, unless there is an insurgence of the underlying magnetic strength this region looks to be a non counter this rotation. The solar wind dropping back to the previous lows.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures show a high of 82.9 and a low of 80.2 for yesterday. At the moment everything looks on the down trend, although there are a couple of small areas on Stereo Behind that might be worth watching.

2010/02/19 17:36  There has been very little new activity to report.1049 has been constantly fluctuating above and below 100 pixels. Currently measuring 103 pixels. The darkness ratio has risen to 61% with the base of 63 pixels remaining constant. 

 Region 2 not showing potential but it is approaching the active longitude. The southern hemisphere test is still in place. The solar wind has risen slightly over the past 2 days and is fluctuating between 450 & 500 km/s.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures show a high of 84.2 and a low of 81.7 for yesterday. The trend is down and could drop through 80 today.

2010/02/18 09:51  Region 2 is the big story during our ramp up of solar cycle 24, the southern hemisphere has to maintain fairly solid activity if SC24 can meet the predictions of the majority of the scientific community. The current observations do not look strong but we have seen this before, this region could easily grow and next month the southern activity could be very different, but the current weakness in the south is worth noting.

In the centre of the disk the weak southern region 1049 has fallen back over the last 10 hours and currently has a reading of 99 pixels.

2010/02/17 22:24  1049 has been numbered and has risen from 53 to 129 pixels. The darkness ratio is at 51%

1046 & 1048 have expired but leave large plage areas. Region 2 is beginning to show a large mostly decayed plage area but there is a hint of spots on the edge of the face. The adjusted F10.7 flux figures show a high of 85.8 and a low of 84.0 for today.

There is some surprising news on the solar wind that may interest those that follow. Updated SC23/SC24 solar wind graph and article here.

2010/02/17 04:46  The new southern hemisphere region has shown surprising growth from an initially weak magnetic structure which now seems to be strengthening slightly. The pixel reading for this area is at 53. Overall activity is in the speck category today but could change rapidly. 1048 is measured at 29 pixels and will just make the grade today, 1046 will not. Region 2 is not showing more than plage activity which is quite different from the last rotation, which started with large flare activity and instant spots.

There is some surprising news on the solar wind that may interest those that follow. Updated SC23/SC24 solar wind graph and article here.

2010/02/16 22:24  1048 falling back to 33 pixels with a reasonably strong showing on the magnetogram. 1046 now measuring 17 pixels and will not be counted tomorrow at this rate of decline.

Some minor specks appearing from a small southern hemisphere region that has been present for several days. The adjusted F10.7 flux figures show a high of 85.2 and a low of 83.8 for today.

The Solar Wind graph has been updated and can be viewed HERE

SIDC estimated sunspot number running at 21.9 for February so far.

2010/02/15 21:29  1048 remaining at 52 pixels but the underlying magnetic area looks strong.

The region looks to be in 2 parts with a trailing plage area in tow.

Recently the Layman's Sunspot Count page passed 10,000 reads. Thanks to all who have supported.

2010/02/15 21:29  1046 falling back to a small area and soon wont be counted. The pixel area dropping to 47. Region 2 looks about as strong as the last 2 passes on Stereo B.

 The adjusted F10.7 flux figures show a high of 85.5 and a low of 83.8 for today. Solar wind remains at record lows with perhaps a slight uptick in the last few hours.

2010/02/14 17:36  1048 now rotating onto the face and fortunately for NOAA is showing some spot activity. The practice of calling a spot early because of flare activity from Stereo B being questionable.  With an initial reading of 52 pixels and a fairly strong magnetic region this new group showing potential for further growth.

All eyes on Region 2 that is next to appear, the strength trend of the returning region might tell the story of the Southern Hemisphere.

2010/02/14 17:36  1046 on a fairly rapid decline measuring 104 pixels and a darkness ratio of 49%.

F10.7 flux starting to edge down and should average around 87 today. Figures to follow. The solar wind continues to intrigue bumping along in the 300 km/s category. The next long term solar wind graph will show a continued overall decline in the solar wind.

Update: The adjusted F10.7 flux figures show a high of 88.6 and a low of 85.7 for today.

2010/02/13 19:12  1045 has almost left the visible face & 1046 continues to decrease in size with a pixel count of 195. The darkness ratio has been moving in the opposite direction for this group and has now risen to 61%. Amazing news from NOAA, they have called sunspot 1048 WITHOUT a spot " New Region 1048 (N23E90) was numbered during the period...No spots have been recorded yet"  A new level of inaccurate reporting has been achieved...... There are several plage areas not showing spots as yet, including old area 1042.  The adjusted F10.7 flux figures show a high of 91.8 and a low of 90.4 for today. The solar wind remains quiet even after 8 days of record SC24 solar events.

2010/02/12 13:50 Both regions 1045 & 1046 on a slight decline. Sparse image updates from SOHO recently, so time to look at some of the new versus old regions. After some study I am convinced that 1046 and 1042 are different regions (Catania also got it wrong?), so recurring region 3 is not up for grabs yet. The circled regions on the Stereo B image are new this rotation with the North showing clear dominance at present. The GONG images currently showing a plage area for returning 1042 and a small plage for the newly appearing southern region.

The Southern Hemisphere proving very interesting right now.

2010/02/11 08:49  1045 no longer the dominate spot group with a pixel reading of 149 and the darkness ratio at a respectable 69%. Region 1 has been good for the sunspot numbers, all 3 going through their growth cycle at the most opportune point in the revolution. I am very much anticipating the arrival of full 360 deg solar viewing.

The SDO satellite launched successfully. It was very exciting to watch live and the new data upgrades will greatly enhance our coverage. There will be a calibration process moving the Layman's standard based on the SOHO images across to the much higher detailed SDO images.

2010/02/11 08:49  1046 now growing to very decent levels. With a pixel reading of 359 and a darkness ratio climbing to 56%, this region may now be eligible for inclusion on the recurring regions table. I need to verify old region 1042 is in the same location before proceeding. Region 2 is approaching once again and this time is of particular interest. If the region is found to be on an overall decline on the next showing it will leave the northern hemisphere as the active portion of the Sun. Its early days but this has been observed in previous grand minima.

Old area 1047 is building strongly on the magnetogram, but without spot activity...along with the solar wind there is a story building here.

2010/02/10 14:24  1045 measuring 277 pixels and a darkness ratio rising to 66% from 60%. There are a few outlier specks that raise an interesting topic. Do specks of this nature belong to the main group or should they be treated separately? In this case there is one pixel that looks to belong to the same underlying region, for the time being I have included it in the 1045 total.

The SDO satellite has failed to launch because of high winds. Hopefully the next attempt at 10:23 AM EST Thur will be successful (I will be watching live with toothpicks under the eyelids again)http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/index.html?param=public

2010/02/10 14:24  1046 has now realized its potential and grown substantially to 253 pixels (from 93 pixels). The darkness ratio is low at 47% rising from 44%

1047 has vanished for now and shows a small trailing plage, this area continues to perplex with its underlying magnetic area on the increase.

The adjusted F10.7 flux figures show a high of 92 and a low of 88 for today. The solar wind remains quiet.

2010/02/09 21:05  1045 on a steady decline, having a peak measure of 892 pixels 45 hours before this image to now measuring 364 pixels. The darkness ratio is now 60%. NOAA states in today's report "this region has shown a slight decay today" but the pixel measurements show a drop from 597 to 364 in the last 24 hours.

NOAA continues to attempt to inflate this solar cycle.

2010/02/09 21:05  1046 now edging up on the pixel count with a reading of 94. The darkness ratio remaining static at 44%

1047 has failed to impress and remains a speck at 3 pixels. This speck has been included in the NOAA daily count which artificially stacks the day count, remember a speck adds at least 11 to the count. The Layman's Count carefully isolates these discrepancies from the count.The forecast solar wind rise from the recent coronal hole has failed to materialize, NOAA predicted a result to occur on the 7th Feb. The cause of the solar wind remaining elusive. The adjusted F10.7 flux figures show a high of 90 and a low of 88 for today.

2010/02/08 22:24  1045 has sharply reduced in size over the last few hours. The pixel reading is 597 and the darkness ratio has also reduced to 61%, the amount of movement (both ways) in this group over the last 24 hours is surprising.

NOAA going all out with a sunspot count of 71 for today. Thankfully we have other methods more reliable for counting sunspots.    

The F10.7 flux high reading for today at 93. The solar wind so far not responding to the earlier coronal hole.

2010/02/08 22:24  1046 growing slightly to 43 pixels and a darkness ratio of 44%. The darkness ratio is certainly influenced by the overall area of a spot group.

 1047 has remained mostly unchanged but now reads 19 pixels

2010/02/08 09:18  1045 has slightly diminished with a pixel reading of 854 and a slight increase in darkness ratio to 69%. New group 1046 has a pixel rating of 26 but the magnetogram suggests some further growth.

Region 1 is displaying a very dominant force that perhaps will not allow other regions to flourish?

UPDATE: 2010/02/08 17:51 1045 is reducing in size and now comes in at 723 pixels and the darkness ratio falling to 63%. 1046 has risen slightly to 39 pixels.

2010/02/08 09:18  A new area that has been evident on Stereo Behind in the southern hemisphere has rotated onto the limb, but at this stage shows little promise. The pixel rating of 16 and weak magnetogram structure suggests little growth....lets see what happens.

UPDATE: Simon from NIA has noticed this region has cycle 23 polarity, the latitude is also quite low. NOAA has given it a number 1047. A small percentage of spots in a cycle can be spun around by the turbulence especially if the region is small...hopefully there will be some comment from the  professional sources.

2010/02/08 00:00  1045 rapidly moving up in size, now measuring 892 pixels and the darkness ratio remaining at 68%. The growth of 1045 has followed the same pattern as 1040 & 1035.

1045 is now the largest group of SC24 and also the widest group measured so far.

Preliminary PPA readings are suggesting a smaller area than 1040.

2010/02/08 00:00  1046 now beginning to show its form. This region looks to be a re birth of 1042 and should be a counter. Because of its current size it may not be worth comparing on the Recurring Regions Table.

2010/02/07 14:24  1045 now growing slowly and has risen slightly to 693 pixels with a darkness ratio of 68%. Region 1 is maintaining a steady flow of major groups that produce area's at or more than 700 pixels. We are currently about 25 days from the last Region 1 sunspot peak. The longevity and strength of Region 1 might have a strong impact on the shape of the sunspot curve as we approach cycle max. 

NOAA has numbered the new group 1046 (currently around 30 pixels) coming onto the east limb but is still ignoring the 2 specks to the right of 1045 that currently measure 6 pixels. F10.7 flux adjusted figures hitting a high of around 90 today.The solar wind is on a slight uptick.

2010/02/07 06:24  1045 is still on the rise measuring 642 pixels. The darkness ratio at 68% (falling back from 72% in the last few hours). The shape of the region looking very similar to the previous groups that belonged to Region 1.

A new group showing spots has now rotated onto the face and will be measurable in about 24 hours, this region could be 1042 returning. Other regions on Stereo Behind are also worth watching. SC24 record flare activity has been occurring and tomorrow's F10.7 flux figures should be interesting.The solar wind waiting for the next installment of star stuff.

2010/02/06 17:36  Region 1 is back with good strength (punch is back) and leaving no doubt with a pixel reading of 446 and a solid darkness ratio of 69%. All 3 spots from Region 1 have formed at a similar longitude,  pure coincidence or a hint of an internal fixed power source? The underlying magnetic field is reasonable but looking to be smaller than the past 2 occurrences. The future PPA reading should tell the story. NOAA have numbered the region 1045 but did not number another region that exceeded 1044 in area? 1043 has now shrunk to 8 pixels and will not be included in today's total. Another area is about to come onto the face (spots showing on GONG). F10.7 flux has low reading of 84 today and looking to increase. 

2010/02/06 01:36  Region 1 looks to be active for the 3rd successive rotation. The un numbered group (1045?) has a pixel area of 51 pixels and a low opening darkness ratio of 33%. This group will be added to the recurring regions table.

The underlying magnetic field is building on the magnetogram, so possible growth might be expected.

1043 has now shrunk to 14 pixels and will not be included in today's total.

2010/02/06 01:36  Another small group (1046) is forming between 1043 and (1045). This group measures just 11 pixels so far and at present does not have a strong magnetic structure.

The earlier group 1044 numbered by NOAA looks to have faded. It will not be counted unless there is a re appearance.

 The level of activity looks to be spread thinly...but the landscape can change very quickly. Looking at whats coming, the majority of this current active latitude could be "lit up" in some manner.

2010/02/05 12:35  1043 hanging in there with a pixel reading of 25 and darkness ratio of 68%. Although small this region has surprised with its contrast figures. NOAA has labeled the associated speck number 1044 which measures a very low 2 pixels.

There has been some minor flare activity and the solar wind is around 350 km/s but expected to rise by the 7th. F10.7 flux min reading at 75.1.

Region 1 remains a large plage, but there does look to be 2 small specks appearing on its leading edge (GONG). Current Feb overall solar activity appears to be low, lacking the punch of last month....but its early. 

2010/02/04 20:53  1043 has now decreased in size and measures 31 pixels. The darkness ratio has also fallen to 54%, back from 73% in 2 days. There is a new small speck appearing close to 1043 (7 o'clock) that corresponds with a very small area on the magnetogram.

Region 1 at this stage looking broken up and not overly strong. There is another area just behind it that has some promise. The F10.7 flux may go under 71 today. Update: 70.7 the measured low.

The Layman's Count has been updated for January...see below.

2010/02/03 19:44  SOHO looks to be having update problems or perhaps they are putting us on rations. Looking at the ground based GONG images the magnetogram is showing a small area of unknown polarity just under the existing 1043 area which looks to be stagnant. So far there is no count from NOAA but 2 faint specks are observable from a few observatories. F10.7 flux is at a low reading of 71. The solar wind beginning to weaken but perhaps waiting for a recharge from the coronal hole in front of region 1 which is also weakening. Region 1 beginning to come into view and is a large plage at present.

The Layman's Count has been updated for January...see below.

2010/02/02 17:42   1043 still on the decline now measuring 86 pixels, the darkness ratio climbing to a whopping 73%. There is certainly no shortage of contrast as measured by our method. The solar wind still showing some activity but will not be considered on the increase until it can achieve consistent values over 700 km/s.

Yesterdays F10.7 Flux low reading at 72. Flare activity is low.

The Layman's Count has been updated for January...see below.

2010/02/01 08:22   1043 still on the decline now measuring 91 pixels, the darkness ratio rising back to 68% and the group is morphing rapidly. This region is a tad unorthodox, but perhaps this is the norm during a grand minimum? The solar wind has bounced strongly off the bottom and looking back over the last six days there looks to be no reason for the uptick. The solar wind certainly has elements unknown to science.UPDATE: SIDC figures in for January, 13.1 monthly mean compared to our count of 12.8. The official SIDC report showing 3 spotless days for January and the Layman's Count showing 4, I am not sure why anyone would follow the NOAA figures these days. Full Layman's update tomorrow.