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What modulates our Sun? The majority of science work on the principle that the Sun is self modulating and each solar cycle is a product of a random number generator. There are others that suspect the Sun is modulated by the planets with a special emphasis on Uranus & Neptune. Thanks to Carl Smith who has recently left us we have new knowledge that significantly adds to Jose, Landscheidt & Charvàtovà's work.

Geoff Sharp

December 2009 news

Posted Mon, 01/18/2010 - 07:26 by Geoff Sharp
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2009/12/10 14:24   1034 called by NOAA coming in at 12 pixels. While not making the grade so far, it has some possible potential. Lots more action required during December to get the monthly count above 5.

2009/12/13  1034 is fading and most likely wont make the grade. The region briefly reached 24 pixels but it was not sustained.

 

 

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 2009/12/13 22:24  1034 making a comeback, but will need to sustain more than 23 pixels for 24 hrs from this point.
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2009/12/14 16:00  1035 making a high latitude appearance with definite strength, the darkness ratio at this point sitting at 64%. 1034 reducing to 10 pixels and again not looking to meet the grade. Are we starting to see a northern hemisphere domination?
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 2009/12/15 05:27  1035 is getting serious, there seems to be about a 2 month gap between reasonable sunspot regions. Much more activity required to get it over 50SSN.

NOAA as expected are including both regions in their daily count. 1034 is not recognized via the Layman's count, which again brings us to a contentious issue. If 1034 is counted by the SIDC, the SIDC daily figure would be for 2 groups,which will be reduced by the 1034 value according to the Layman's clear guidelines.

1035 darkness ratio at present coming in at 68%

2009/12/15 20:48  1035 now at 324 pixels. The darkness ratio has experienced a big drop off back to 58%
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2009/12/16 17:09  1035 continues to grow in size and might challenge 1029 if the trend continues. The darkness ratio has risen back to 66%. NOAA counting the area total at 38 which is ambitious. There is a small rise in the solar wind speed which looks to be doing its own thing.
 
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2009/12/17 00:34  1035 now exceeding 1029, displaying SC24's largest region to date. The darkness ratio has risen again to 71%. This group will possibly put the L&P theory under pressure perhaps?
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2009/12/17 07:58  1035 displaying we are certainly on the up ramp, but still a long way to go. Solar wind beginning to respond at around 400 km/s. Darkness ratio now equaling 1029 at 73%
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2009/12/17 16:00  1035 still on the growth cycle. Darkness ratio remains at 73%
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2009/12/18 02:39  1035 now starting to consolidate and weaken. Darkness ratio increasing to 76%

2009/12/20   SOHO not updating, meanwhile 2 small spots numbered by NOAA. 1037 disappearing very quickly and 1038 is small group that has possible potential. NOAA's daily count of 43 once again very ambitious. Lets hope the SOHO database is updated, if not we will have to rely on GONG images to evaluate the Layman's Count.
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2009/12/21 22:24 SOHO down for 3 days which will require the backup images of GONG to be utilized. At this point 1038 showing 69 pixels with a darkness ratio of 61%. 1037 unlikely to make the grade.
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2009/12/21 22:24  1036 currently at 32 pixels and a darkness ratio of 47%
 

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2009/12/23 00:00  1038 staying about the same and will be counted. Darkness ratio retreating to 42%
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2009/12/23 00:00  1036 on the decline and will need GONG images to assess. Darkness ratio at 36%

2009/12/24 16:00   The face of the Sun is clear, both areas in the southern hemisphere so far failing to have enough magnetic strength. A spotless Sun is a timely Xmas present for those like me expecting a grand minimum cycle. There is a good chance of no follow up activity will occur until the new year leaving the possibility of 2009 having more spotless days than 2008 (SIDC count). Merry Xmas to all.
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2009/12/26 22:24 Emerging from a rather weak looking plage (looks to be a previous region), 1039 has spoilt our party. Darkness ratio at 72% which is impressive. The region looks to have more punch on the magnetogram and Stereo Behind images than noted 12 hours ago making it difficult to predict which way this spot group will go.
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2009/12/27 22:24  1039 continues to grow in size. Darkness ratio now at 66%. The Layman's Count will require quite a few hours to achieve a result this month.
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2009/12/28 16:00   1039 increases its pixel count and should see out the rest of the year. Darkness ratio remains at 66%
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2009/12/29 17:24  1039 now developing into a reasonable sunspot group. The rise of this group perhaps departing from the typical pattern of the previous decent spot groups of SC24 (emerging from a plage area and then gaining strength). The solar wind not following the rise in sunspot activity and settling back to around 300 km/s ( there is around a 6 day lag period at these speeds). December marking the month of ramp up, which is expected and should continue to rise over the next 2 years....the level of the rise being the important issue. The current darkness ratio falling back to 62.5%, L&P currently restricted by telescope time and not expecting a booth until 24th Jan 2010, this must impinge on the quality of the dataset.
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2009/12/31 00:00  1039 still on the growth cycle, darkness ratio now at 71%. So far during SC24 most of the major sunspot groups have reached a darkness figure over 70% which suggests no real drop off in contrast. The magnetic readings could be a different matter.

Darkness Ratio graph not updated till next week....currently showing records to the end of November.
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2009/12/31 20:48  1039 refusing to lay down, continuing to show strength. Darkness ratio remaining at 71%. The solar wind speed will be interesting to watch in the next few days.
 
 

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